Pak's Punjab Bypolls: Don't Credit Imran’s ‘Narrative’ for Sharif Party's Defeat

The roots of the shock defeat of the PMLN lie in the original sin of the no-confidence motion in April.

Photo for representation. 

(Photo: The Quint)

The roots of the shock defeat of the PMLN, considered invincible in Pakistan's Punjab even under the most difficult circumstances, lie in the original sin of the no-confidence motion in April, no matter what anyone else tells you. You will find people talking about tactical issues, micro-issues, etc – none of which are incorrect, but they are almost all the result of ‘that vote’.

But before I explain the root cause further, I first want to disabuse everyone of the idea that Imran Khan’s “narrative” has won. First, in the short space between being ousted (10 April) and the Punjab bypolls (27 July), he has swung between at least half a dozen wild conspiracy theories, dangerously cynical appeals to Islamic emotions, threats to bring about anarchy and burn the house down, baseless accusations against almost everyone, and shameless admissions (that he was beholden to the ISI and begged it to get the opposition to do his bidding), which cannot be called a narrative by any stretch of the imagination.

• The roots of the shock defeat of the PMLN, considered invincible in Pakistan's Punjab, lie in the original sin of the no-confidence motion in April, no matter what anyone else tells you.

• Imran Khan's wild conspiracy theories, threats, dangerously cynical appeals to Islamic emotions, baseless accusations against almost everyone can't be considered a 'narrative' by any stretch of the imagination.

• The shock result in the 10 lower-middle-class constituencies was the result of not awarding tickets to PMLN loyalists but instead awarding them to “lotas” – the former PTI candidates who voted for Hamza Shahbaz against party discipline.

• At the voter level, too, there is palpable anger at the run-away inflation and the cost of living crisis.

• Whether this loss will be a bellwether for the next general election remains to be seen.

That Famous Imran Khan 'Narrative'

First, it was the American cypher and the entire opposition’s collusion with the American conspiracy to overthrow his government. This died its own death for lack of evidence, and was even denied and privately laughed at by his own people. Former PMLN MNA Ayaz Amir, now the PTI, rejected it, publicly asking Imran Khan to look nearer towards Rawalpindi for the conspiracy against him (Amir was roughed up immediately after this statement). There were his barely veiled references to the army chief, calling him ‘Mir Jafar’ (a colluder and traitor) for letting his government fall. Then he called “neutrality” a sin, because the army was at pains to make clear it was neutral in this gambit.

He invoked Islam calling upon the “neutrals” repeatedly to become partisan because God forbade neutrality in the battle between good and evil, him being “the good” and everyone else “evil”, of course.

Note here that this act remains tantamount to inciting the army to violate its code to abide by and defend and protect the constitution, and meddle in politics to fail the democratic and constitutional process.

When the so-called and made-up Islamic injunctions failed to work on Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, Imran Khan started to curse (“Allah tum se poochay ga", ie, "God will ask you"). Next, it was begging: “leaders and generals should take a U-turn when they have made a mistake.”

Is this a narrative, pray tell?

When Imran Khan saw all this failing to move General Bajwa into jumping into the fray, he and his cohort began to make dark threats to burn the house down ("Rather than having thieves as rulers, it's better that this country has an atom bomb thrown at it", “Without a free and fair election this nation will become Sri Lanka”, “Khan 'sahab' won't be able to save the nation then”, etc.).

I ask, is this a narrative, leave alone a narrative that “won” the Punjab by-polls?

It Was PMLN That Lost, Not Imran Who 'Won'

Has the putrid concoction made up of all of the above “won” the by-election for him? No. It was lost by the PMLN – but on that later. Here I just cannot help seeing the awful similarity between Imran's onslaught on Pakistan and the three witches in Macbeth and their “Double, double, toil and trouble; Fire burn and cauldron bubble.”

The equivalent fillet of a fenny snake, eye of newt and toe of frog, wool of bat and tongue of dog, lizard’s leg and howlet’s wing that Imran Khan has thrown into his toxic brew to come up with the “charm of powerful trouble” certainly makes for a “hell-broth”.

It’s definitely a hell-broth that can poison the political atmosphere; it can create instability, too. But it cannot, and did not, win Imran an election.

And no, the pleadings and the threats did not accomplish interference by the army as there is no evidence of rigging by it. What the conspiracy nonsense did do, though, was to recharge his pre-existing base that had gone rather quiet at the non-ending string of corruption scandals and a complete screw-up of the economy by his government.

What Really Happened

So, what happened? There were 20 seats, 10 of which were in affluent constituencies, be they in Lahore, Faisalabad or other towns, where Imran Khan’s voter base outnumbers the PMLN’s. The shock result in the 10 lower-middle-class constituencies all around Punjab, which were strongholds of the PMLN, was the result of not awarding tickets to their loyalists but instead awarding them to “lotas” – the former PTI candidates who voted for Hamza Shahbaz for Chief Minister against party discipline and became de-seated as a result.

PMLN loyalists who were passed over for the ‘lotas’ taught a lesson to the party. They were asked to support the PMLN ticket-holders but refused, and ran as independents, inflicting heavy damage on the party, cutting away votes in tens of thousands.

They had been victimised in dozens of different ways at the hands of the PTI and the army throughout the PTI’s four-and-a-half-year rule. They were livid at being thus rewarded for their sacrifice and loyalty. Essentially, when told by the PMLN that it was a “majboori” (helplessness), their response was, “Sorry, but it’s not my majboori; I have to stay politically alive.”

At the voter level, too, there is palpable anger at the run-away inflation and the cost of living crisis. Families are skipping meals and can’t pay for school fees, medicine, utilities, or petrol. Remember, it is the age of social media, which has penetrated even lower middle-class constituencies in villages and towns. This means that it is not just the intelligentsia that understands that the army’s budget was protected and increased, that big businesses’ subsidies were not taken away, and that the agriculture and retail sectors were not brought into the tax net – all at the public’s cost. The public understands this, it understands its blood is being sucked to feed the leeches. It voted with its feet.

The People Have Spoken

Millstones of anger at inflation and anger at ticket awards that drowned the PMLN are both a direct result of the original sin of sleeping with the enemy and accepting its votes to oust both Imran Khan at the centre and Pervez Elahi in Punjab. At the centre, the PMLN had to restart the punitive International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme and deliver on it, essentially taking the blame for the economic meltdown caused by the PTI. In Punjab, it had to award tickets to the 'lotas'. The good thing is that the public did not take it lying down like zombies and gave a good licking to the PMLN. The public saw it was taken for a ride, that “vote-ko-izzat do” (respect the vote) was a cynical slogan ditched at the first opportunity to grab power and shaft them in the process.

Whether this loss will be a bellwether for the next general election remains to be seen.

It will depend upon whether the PMLN will learn any lessons, whether it can resolve the leadership crisis within, whether it can set a clear direction for its narrative and policy vis à vis the army, whether it can drag the economy out of the morass or not.

There are too many exogenous uncertainties at this point, too, which will determine the future of politics and democracy in Pakistan. The silver lining, for now, is just that people have dealt a “vote-ko-izzat-do” right back to the PMLN.

(Gul Bukhari is a Pakistani journalist and rights activist. She tweets @GulBukhari. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)