How Bypolls in Pakistan's Punjab May Just Have Signalled Imran Khan's Comeback

Khan's demand for new elections and PTI's performance in Punjab prove the extent of his popularity in Pakistan.

Imran Khan.

(Photo: Deeksha Malhotra/The Quint)

Imran Khan is back in the news, and this time, he must be enjoying it.

His political party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won a thumping victory over its rivals, most notably the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in the Punjab bypolls.

The PTI won 15 seats out of the 20 that got vacated after the disqualification of party members who had cross-voted for Hamza Shehbaz (vice president of the PML-N and son of PM Shehbaz Sharif) for the Punjab chief minister's office. It won five seats in central Punjab, five in north, and as many in south Punjab.

Meanwhile, despite being in power not only in Punjab but also in the centre, the PML-N managed to win only four seats. It had, according to Dawn, given tickets to turncoats in all the constituencies, except in the case of Aleem Khan, who had walked out of the PTI and joined the PML-N in April, who decided to not contest the bypoll.

Khan, the former PM who got ousted three months ago after a rebellion within his party and parliamentary alliance, wrote on Twitter, "The only way forward from here is to hold fair and free elections under a credible ECP [Election Commission of Pakistan]. Any other path will only lead to greater political uncertainty and further economic chaos."

Why were these bypolls important in the first place? And what does Khan's victory mean for him and the party? Read on to know.

A Little Background

In the 2018 Punjab provincial election, the PTI emerged as the single-largest party winning 184 seats in the 371-strong house. Allied with the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), it was was able to form the government, with Sardar Usman Buzdar becoming the chief minister of Punjab.

Almost four years later, on 28 March 2022, Buzdar submitted his resignation at the request of the then Prime Minister Imran Khan after a no-confidence vote was initiated against the latter in the parliament. Buzdar's poor governance of Punjab was often being cited as a reason for the country's loss of the faith in the PTI.

The current events in Punjab, however, can be traced back to 30 April 2022, when, in a election to elect the chief minister of Punjab after Buzdar officially left office, the PTI-led government of the province was overthrown after 25 dissidents of the party cross-voted to elect Opposition leader Hamza Shehbaz as the new CM. This happened three weeks after Imran Khan himself was ousted as prime minister.

The Supreme Court, based on Article 63A of the constitution (relevant parts quoted below), ruled that "the vote of any member of a parliamentary party in a House "that is cast contrary to any direction issued by the latter in terms of para (b) of clause (1) of Article 63-A cannot be counted and must be disregarded."

Consequently, the Election Commission of Pakistan de-seated all these 25 dissidents, following 63A, which can disqualify a sitting member of the House if he or she "votes or abstains from voting in the House contrary to any direction issued by the parliamentary party to which he belongs, in relation to the election of the prime minister or chief minister."

Because of the Supreme Court ruling, provincial by-elections were held in Punjab on 17 July in order to fill those vacancies, the results of which have already been mentioned above.

Why Was the Election So Important?

The importance being given to 63A is one reason why the election mattered.

Because the votes of the 25 PTI dissidents had been the key to elect Hamza, given that he received a total of 197 votes while 186 is the magic number, the interference by 63A is likely going to topple his government on 22 July when the re-election for the CM post will occur (as per the apex court's orders).

"We have arrived at the conclusion that participation of the respondents in the election of chief minister of Punjab and casting their votes in favour of opposing candidate has established the factum of defection on the basis of the subject declarations against all the respondents," the ECP has said in its verdict justifying the disqualifying the 25 rebels. This is an important conclusion and serves as a significant precedent for future turncoats in Pakistani politics.

The election results show the strong dissatisfaction of the voters with the PML-N. The economy is plagued by inflation and experts are ringing alarm bells about the looming economic catastrophe. High prices of fuel and regular power blackouts are just few of the issues that have made voters angry.

The government, last week, reached a preliminary staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund for the revival of the $6 billion loan facility, a bailout to help the economy stand up again. International patience, however, may run out soon.

And the election also shows that Imran Khan is not just in the game, he is gathering momentum pretty fast. His narrative of a "foreign conspiracy" to overthrow his government in April earlier this year seems to have worked in his favour.

"Imran Khan was able to secure this victory for his party without the help of the military; without businessmen, who previously funded his electoral campaigns, and without having any major electable candidates [who have dependable vote banks] in his camp," Journalist and analyst Benazir Shah told the BBC.

Khan has tasted blood. His demand for renewed elections and his party's performance in Punjab prove the extent of his popularity in the country, even after being ousted. Given that Punjab is likely to fall back into the hands of the PTI in the next three days, Khan's general election campaign may have already begun.

The election results may also give a hint about how the public perceives turncoats. The PML-N was probably forced to give tickets to PTI defectors since Hazma could not have become the CM without those 25 votes. That decision seems to have come back to haunt them.