Odisha’s Weak Opposition Has Let CM Naveen Patnaik Retain Throne

Neither the BJP nor the Congress has managed to put up a strong opposition to Naveen Patnaik’s leadership.

CM Naveen Patnaik is likely to beat any anti-incumbency headwinds and retain power.

(Photo: Arnica Kala/The Quint)

When a government has been ruling in a state for the past 18 years and is about to face an election for the fifth time, nervousness is expected — there could be the haunting air of anti incumbency to fear. However, in Odisha’s case, the ruling party doesn’t seem to fear anti-incumbency.

The Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Naveen Patnaik looks pretty confident about winning the election without much effort, and the masses believe that the BJD is going to retain power in upcoming Assembly election.

It is truly astonishing to see a government which is not flamboyant nor keen on promoting itself win overwhelming public support. What is it that makes Naveen Patnaik the darling of Odia voters?

Congress in Odisha – a Sinking Ship

Political commentators believe that Patnaik is popular not because he is a great orator or harbinger of development, but because of the vacuum in the Opposition camp. Both principal opponents of Patnaik, that is, the BJP and the Congress, have failed to nurture a credible political face in Odisha. Congress in Odisha looks like a sinking ship, and despite last minute efforts by the AICC to save it, no positive results are on the horizon.

After a long year of infighting and deadly stagnation in the Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC), the leadership has now changed, with veteran Congress leader Niranjan Patnaik being brought back as the president — but it is too little, and too late.

The initial enthusiasm in the Congress camp after the leadership change has ebbed away, and infighting seems to be a constant.

Recently, former Union Minister Shrikant Jena, who was designated as the chairman of the Manifesto Committee for the PCC, had sent a note to the PCC/AICC office bearers, categorically requesting for a member of the OBC to be projected as chief ministerial candidate in the 2019 Assembly elections, clearly snubbing the new PCC President.

Here on, the Congress’ revival in Odisha looks almost impossible.

‘Modi Wave’ yet to Dent Patnaik’s Citadel

In contrast, the BJP in Odisha looks more arrogant than confident. Despite the strong ‘Modi wave’ of 2014, Odisha remained Naveen Patnaik’s bastion. The BJP was a bit optimistic when they won a few hundred zila parishad seats in the local panchayat election in March 2017.

Indeed that was a spectacular victory, but again this mild public support failed to gain momentum. The arrogant and unbecoming abuse to the chief minister in public forums by Union ministers and leaders of the BJP cost the party dearly, causing them to suffer humiliating defeats in subsequent by-elections.

Despite BJP’s continuous efforts to discredit the Patnaik government, they are yet to get a credible and long-standing political issue to corner the BJD government.

BJD’s Enemy Within

When Baijayant Panda, the Kendrapara district MP and a former trusted friend of Naveen Patnaik, revolted against the party, it was expected that he would create some hurdles for Patnaik in the days to come. However, after his suspension from the BJD, a wounded Jay Panda was pushed to a corner, from where he could hardly speak a word against the BJD supremo.

Jay Panda tried to target a secretary level officer in the CMO and ultimately, in the face of defeat, decided to play the victim card. Panda and his companies in Odisha were getting a lot of government support while he was in the BJD.

After his fallout with Naveen Patnaik, Panda’s corporate empire has started to face the strong arm tactics of the state government machinery. Now, for every minor issue, Panda picks on some officer or the other in the CMO, one who is a political non-entity, and hardly affects the BJD.

In recent times, Jay Panda has found himself in more trouble.

Jay Panda family’s main business entity — IMFA’s factory at Therubali in Odisha’s Rayagada district — has found itself amid employee unrest and local agitation led by tribal leaders. Further, the Kendrapara district police have filed an FIR and initiated a criminal investigation against Jay Panda on grounds of his allegedly not disclosing details of his income from the IMFA in the affidavit he filed before the Election Commission during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Therefore, it has become increasingly clear that Jay Panda is not even a remote threat to Naveen Patnaik.

Too Obvious a Prediction

Naveen Patnaik and his party have already rolled out an aggressive campaign to create a pro-incumbency environment in Odisha politics, whereas the Opposition parties are yet to gear up for the 2019 elections.

There is speculation in BJP circles that the party’s state President Basanta Kumar Panda may have to vacate his chair. After the Bijapur by-election result, the BJP appears to be trying to replace the Congress as the primary Opposition in Odisha politics.

While there is a race to occupy the number two position (close on the heels of BJD), shockingly, there seems to be no real hunger within the BJP or the Congress to become the number one party as an alternative to Naveen Patnaik’s leadership.

For now, it looks like Naveen Patnaik is here to stay.

(Kedar Mishra is a Bhubaneswar based freelance writer and can be reached at [e-mail] and @MishraKedar1. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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