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Video Editor: Mohd Ibrahim
“Whoever wins Karnataka loses India” is an electoral truism that got nixed on Tuesday, 15 May. It used to be almost as robust an indicator as “whoever wins Ohio wins America.” But nobody won Karnataka, thereby depriving us of the polls’ quick-fix predictive ability.
By this yardstick then, 2019 is an open game, in uncharted territory! But here are five key takeaways that have made the Karnataka elections a microcosm of what to expect in the general elections of 2019.
Look at these data points:
In terms of parliamentary seats, the best it can hope for is a three-digit number short of 150. In order to form a government, it will have to do a deal with the regional parties, exactly as it pitched to Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka. Now whether the Congress is in a position to lead this coalition, or become the junior partner in it, will depend on how close it manages to get to 150 seats.
A few regional parties in India are “Modi-neutral,” – that is, they can do a deal with either BJP or Congress, as is evident from the option Kumaraswamy had in Karnataka. Other such “equi-distant” regional operators are Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), YSR Congress, Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiv Sena, AIADMK, DMK, Janata Dal (United), and Indian National Lok Dal, among a clutch of tiny outfits.
These shall have the best shot at being in the Union government, irrespective of whether it is a UPA or NDA or Third Front-led government that gets formed after 2019. To use a Hindi saying, “Paanchon ungliyan ghee main (all five fingers in the fat; certain gains).”
A few regional parties will find it politically impossible to align behind Modi. These include the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the Communists, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).
Their best bet would be a United Front-like outcome in 1996, where a weak Congress is forced to prop up a regional chieftain. However, if the Congress was to come close to 150, then this gaggle will have to support a Rahul Gandhi-led government.
And the last point: President Ram Nath Kovind will be in Governor Vajubhai Vala’s shoes, having to decide whom to call to form the government.
We shall have to wait until May 2019 to see what he does.
Clearly, what happened in Karnataka on Tuesday is a trailer of the movie that will play out after the general elections next year.
Enjoy the show!
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Published: 18 May 2018,01:59 PM IST