Madhya Pradesh Urban Body Elections: Are the Odds Favouring BJP or Congress?

BJP-Congress fight before assembly elections 2023 in MP civic body polls, voting begins for first phase.

100-year-old Kathrina Yadav after voting in Chhindwara on Wednesday, 6 July in the civic body elections.

(Photo Courtesy: Twitter)

In the first phase of voting in Madhya Pradesh's civic body elections on Wednesday, 6 July, casting of votes is underway for 11 municipal corporations, including Bhopal, Indore, Gwalior, Khandwa, Burhanpur, Jabalpur, Chhindwara, Ujjain, Sagar, Singrauli, and Satna.

The elections are being held in two phases for 16 municipal corporations (tier 1 bodies), 99 nagar palika parishads (tier 2 bodies) or municipalities, and 298 nagar parishads (tier 3 bodies). The second phase of polling will be held on 13 July, and counting of the votes will be done on 17 July.

Most of the 11 municipal corporations in the first phase are witnessing a bipolar fight between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, except for the seats of Singrauli and Satna with the entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the former and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the latter.

So, which party has better odds? Let's take a closer look.

'Congress Fielded Better Candidates but BJP With RSS Backing Will Have an Edge'

Political experts believe that although the Congress has fielded better candidates than the BJP, the organisational support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) for the latter will "give them an edge towards victory."

“It’s true that the Congress has better horses, but the BJP has strong support for its candidates thanks to the RSS and its sister organisations. The best examples are Bhopal and Indore, the two largest civic bodies in the state. Congress candidates in both Bhopal and Indore have better perception going on for them, but securing a win would be very difficult because, again, the BJP and the RSS just won’t allow these seats out of their corner. If the Congress secures the win, the message against the BJP will be devastating, but that’s highly unlikely.”

A senior journalist from the state

Further, experts say that since the BJP doesn’t have "anything extraordinary" to boast of in the state, despite having the majority for around two decades in the state, the need for organisational support weighs high in civic elections.

At the same time, not having "anything extraordinary" can have serious ramifications for the BJP.

For one, the state is witnessing monsoon, and with waterlogged localities, the voter might just get frustrated and decide to vote against the BJP, the journalist adds. "The issues of improper drainage, waterlogged roads, floods and problems might not allow the whole pro-Hindutva notions to ride through, and for once the voter might just decide to vote against the problems being faced on a daily routine," he adds.

A Precursor to 2023 State Assembly Elections

Another senior journalist from the state, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, says both the BJP and the Congress are considering these elections as precursor to the 2023 Assembly elections. As a result, they have "put the best face and the strongest fight."

“Both Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the Congress’ Kamal Nath have done rallies, spent days on ground, boosting the morale of the cadre, strengthening their connect with the public... and the sweat is real, the hard work is visible, and both the parties know that whoever pulls the better hand will have upper hand in the next elections.”

Senior journalist

A Triangular Face-Off in Singrauli and Satna

The most complex scenario for the mayoral seat is Singrauli, where the entry of AAP has spruced up the fight. It is the only civic body where Delhi Chief Minister and the party supremo Arvind Kejriwal did a roadshow on 2 July, putting his weight behind their candidate Rani Agarwal.

Agarwal had finished third with 21.59 percent votes in the 2018 Assembly polls. The BJP's Ram Lallu Vaishy secured the win with 24.63 percent of votes, and the Congress' Renu Sahu ranking second with 22.13 percent vote share.

Kejriwal, during his recent campaign for Agarwal, said that his party works not to amass wealth, but to put wealth in the common man’s pockets. He promised free electricity, water, and a better education system.

“We will change Singrauli if voted to power… and I won’t show my face in the next elections if we do not come true on our promises.”

Kejriwal said during the roadshow.

While in Satna the Congress rebel Saeed Ahmad has made the fight more interesting. Saeed is contesting the mayoral election on the ticket of Bahujan Samaj Party against Congress's current candidate Siddharth Kushwaha and BJP's Yogesh Tamrakar.

In Satna where the mayoral seat is reserved for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the BJP is looking to retain power. The Congress is facing serious challenge here due to the rebel candidate Saeed.

Locals say that both the BJP and the Congress paved way for discontent in Satna due to the ticket allotment and that is what the BSP has targeted as its winning medallion.

AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi campaigned in Madhya Pradesh before the first phase of elections and alleged that Congress and BJP had a secret "arrangement." AAP's Kejriwal also said that there is a "setting" that operates between the two parties.

What is set to be a nail-biter for both the Congress and the BJP in the backdrop of newly introduced OBC reservations in local civic bodies, the entry of both AAP and AIMIM in the elections may lead to unexpected results in certain constituencies.