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In the wake of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) registering a big win in Uttar Pradesh – and Yogi Adityanath successfully retaining a second term in the state – the attention has shifted to Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and how this win might influence his political roadmap.
Chouhan has had the reign since 2005, except for the Congress' short stint after the 2018 Assembly elections. He now has a major task at hand as Madhya Pradesh inches towards elections next year.
One of the few remaining active stalwarts of pre-Narendra Modi and pre-Yogi era, Chouhan faces a stern challenge from the rise of the incumbent Uttar Pradesh chief minister.
"So, even though he isn't favoured or liked as much as his counterparts like Yogi Adityanath by the central leadership, it's difficult for the party to sideline him like other leaders of his time,” Tiwari adds.
Chouhan will be taking on anti-incumbency against the local MLAs, internal party tussle, and rising ambition of other BJP leaders in the 2023 elections. That, along with the already existing and challenging voter determinants such as inflation, development, jobs, and OBC reservation, among others.
Several party factions are of the opinion that if the party goes to election with Chouhan as the chief ministerial face, they are likely to lose. But then, finding a replacement for Chouhan is a challenge.
MP has "never acted on communal polarisation" like that in UP, he adds. With over 52 percent of the population belonging to OBCs, state's politics has revolved around caste appeasement. As a result, the BJP's leadership has been positioning an OBC CM in the state since the 90s.
The 'pressure from Delhi' on Chouhan became evident with a change in his stance after he became the chief minister in 2020 by overthrowing the elected government of the Congress with the help of the party's defectors, say seniors journalists and political experts in the state.
The hardline language was followed by enacting UP-style legislations, such as recovering the cost of damages caused to public and private property from protesters and stone-pelters. Even his silence over the communal ruckus in parts of Ujjain, Indore, and Mandsaur in December 2020-January 2021 spoke volumes.
Experts in the state opine that Chouhan was essentially "suffering from FOMO (fear of missing out)" as Yogi Adityanath's stature and involvement in the party increased. Now, with the latest victory in UP, Chouhan will be further pushed towards following Adityanath's playbook.
Another factor which aided in Chouhan shifting his stance was the rise of hardliners within the state. With leaders like Narottam Mishra, Kailash Vijayvargiya, Narendra Singh Tomar, among others, stepping up their game, Chouhan soon found himself edging towards the end of the top circle. He was quick to respond, restructure, and emphasise the idea of a fearless chief minister along with a mass leader, experts say.
'Double-Engine-Ki-Sarkar’, one of the major rhetoric during the recent Assembly elections, was a befitting one for UP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was vocal about the need for and the importance of this model of governance, but whether this model will run smoothly – with the engines being Modi and Chouhan – is doubtful.
"Shivraj doesn't enjoy the affection from the BJP's Delhi wing like Yogi does. Second, because Shivraj, although he is trying, hasn't been able to transform his relations with Delhi to the required extent for this model to work,” says another senior journalist.
Still, another senior journalist believes Adityanath's win might help Chouhan.
While political analysts have a mixed opinion on what the future holds for the four-time chief minister, his road to Delhi now has a Yogi Adityanath-sized blockade.
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