Rajasthan Election Results: Who will be the Next CM? Will BJP Look Beyond Raje?

The main question is - will Modi and Shah decide to look beyond Vasundhara Raje or not?

(If BJP goes beyond Vasundhara Raje, Balak Nath and Gajendra Shekhawat may have the best shot)

(Vibhushita Singh/The Quint)

Cameraperson: Shiv Kumar Maurya

Video Editor: Purnendu Preetam

The BJP is heading for a narrow majority in the Rajasthan Assembly elections. The state has maintained its 25-year record of voting out the incumbent and alternating between the Congress and the BJP. In this period, politics of the state has been dominated by two leaders - Congress' Ashok Gehlot and BJP's Vasundhara Raje.

But this time is different. The BJP didn't project Raje as its CM candidate, unlike 2013. In 2018, of course, she was the incumbent CM.

The big question now is: will BJP make Raje the CM again? And if not, then who will be the next CM of Rajasthan?

Here are the BJP's CM probables in Rajasthan.

Top Contenders

1. Vasundhara Raje

The two-term Rajasthan CM is the tallest BJP leader in the state and she definitely cannot be ignored. However, during the campaign, there were strong indications that the BJP top leadership - PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and party president JP Nadda - want to change the status quo in the state.

The question is whether the numbers would allow the BJP top brass to do that.

One aspect that gives Raje leverage is that with general elections due in less than six months, a seasoned administrator like Raje might be its safest bet of ensuring a clean sweep in the state's 25 Lok Sabha seats.

Another advantage of Raje is caste. As a Maratha royal married into a Jat royal family, she is well placed to keep the balance between different caste groups in the state.

Two of her detractors - Rajendra Rathore and Satish Poonia - have lost in their respective seats, further shrinking her pool of competitors.

2. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat

The Union minister and Jodhpur MP is a favourite of the BJP's central leadership and he has always been seen as the leader most likely to replace Raje as the party's face in Rajasthan.

He belongs to the Rajput community, which is one of the BJP's strongest vote banks in the state.

Shekhawat is from an RSS background and has been part of its key frontals like the Swadesh Jagran Manch and earlier the ABVP.

However, given the historical rivalry between Rajputs and Jats in the state, there would be fears that making a Rajput CM could alienate Jats.

3. Balak Nath

At the time of writing this article, Mahant Balak Nath was leading in the Tijara constituency. Balak Nath, the MP from Alwar, is a 'Mahant' or priest belonging to the Nath cult like Yogi Adityanath.

In fact during the election campaign, Balak Nath acquired the label 'Rajasthan ka Yogi'.

The Yogi experiment has been a successful one for the BJP and helped the party dominate India's most populous and politically crucial state.

The party may be tempted to do the same experiment in Rajasthan. In a caste polarised state like Rajasthan, the BJP may also want to go for hardline Hindutva to counter the Congress' caste census pitch. He also belongs to the OBC Yadav caste, which may help BJP beyond Rajasthan.

Given his track record of alleged hate speeches and controversial remarks, Balak Nath may be the BJP's choice if it wants to go for a hardline Hindutva pitch in Rajasthan.

Om Mathur

The Rajya Sabha MP is one of PM Modi and Amit Shah's most trusted organisational men. He has been their go-to man for the most difficult electoral challenges. He was instrumental in the party's win in the 2014 Maharashtra elections and 2017 Uttar Pradesh elections.

Even in the recent elections, he was made the in-charge of Chhattisgarh at a time when the BJP seemed down in the dumps but he has delivered here as well.

He has been an RSS Pracharak and enjoys solid support from the Sangh. Being from a numerically small community could also be useful in managing Rajasthan's polarised caste landscape.

Diya Kumari

When Diya Kumari was given a ticket from Jaipur's Vidyadhar Nagar seat in the Assembly elections, it created quite a flutter in political circles for two reasons.

First, she replaced Narpat Singh Rajvi, the son-in-law of former Vice President of India and ex-Rajasthan CM Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, unarguably the tallest BJP leader from Rajasthan ever.

Second, she is already an MP from Rajsamand and she was now being fielded from one of the safest BJP seats in Jaipur city.

Both these aspects sent the signal that Diya Kumari has the blessings of the party high command as is being seen as a counterweight to Vasundhara Raje.

However, she is a political lightweight and may not be the best choice to be CM with the Lok Sabha elections due in less than six months.

Arjun Ram Meghwal

The Union Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal is one of the most reliable ministers for PM Modi. He is the tallest Dalit leader of the BJP in Rajasthan and if chosen, he will only be the second Dalit to be the state's CM, the other being Jagannath Pahadia of the Congress who was CM from 1980-81.

However, having a Dalit CM could provoke a backlash from dominant castes and the BJP may not want to risk that in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls.