Exit Polls Predict Close Contest in Rajasthan, Gehlot Very Much in The Fight

Assembly elections in Rajasthan were held on 25 November. Results will be out on 3 December.

Elections to 200 Assembly seats in Rajasthan were held on 25 November. Results will be out on 3 December.

(Photo: The Quint)

Exit polls results for the Rajasthan Assembly elections held on 25 November have predicted a close contest between Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state.

Key Findings From Various Exit Polls

India Today-My Axis India

As per India Today-My Axis predictions, the BJP is expected to win 80-100 seats in the state while the Congress is likely to get 86-106 seats in the 200 seat Assembly. The exit polls has predicted 41 percent vote share for the BJP and 42 percent for the Congress.

CVoter

The C Voter exit poll predicted 71-91 seats for the incumbent Congress party, and 94-114 seats for the BJP. It also predicted 9-19 seats for other state players including Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) active in south Rajasthan. In terms of vote share, BJP is expected to get 44.7 percent votes, whereas the Congress is likely to get 41.1 percent votes.

Republic's P-Marq and Matrize

According to exit poll predictions by Republic's P-Marq and Matrize, BJP has the lead in Rajasthan with 115-130 seats, whereas the Congress is likely to win 65-75 seats. The exit poll has predicted 43.7 percent vote share for the BJP, whereas Congress is likely to get 38.6 percent votes.

News24-Today's Chanakya

News24-Today's Chanakya exit polls has predicted a Congress victory in Rajasthan with 101(+-12) seats. As per their predictions, BJP is likely to get 89 (+-12) seats while 9(+-7) seats are likely to go to other players in the state. The Congress is expected to win 41 percent votes while BJP is likely to get 39 percent votes.

What Does a Tight Contest Indicate?

The state of Rajasthan, since 1998, has followed a revolving door pattern of voting, which means that the incumbent party is voted out each time the state goes to polls.

If India Today-My Axis and News24-Today's Chanakya exit poll predictions come true, Ashok Gehlot would've successfully overturned a decades-old trend.

In both these polls, Congress' performance is being credited to a high woman vote, better performance in rural areas, and consolidation of SC, ST and Muslim vote in favour of the party.

A close contest indicates a diversion from this decades old trend. It also hints that welfare schemes such as the Chiranjeevi Yojana launched and advertised by the Congress in the run up to the polls have had an impact on the voter.

In the 2018 Assembly elections, Congress won 100 seats as compared to 21 seats in the 2013 Assembly elections. The BJP, on the other hand won 73 seats as compared to a landslide 168 seats in the 2013 Assembly elections.

Gehlot, Vasundhara, or Pilot: Who Benefits From a Close Fight?

Both Congress and BJP state units in Rajasthan are dealing with infighting. In Congress Sachin Pilot's open rebellion against Ashok Gehlot divided the party in two camps.

In the BJP, reports of infighting surfaced after former CM Vasundhara Raje was not projected as the chief ministerial face in the run-up to the polls. In a close contest both parties will need to keep their flock together, a situation where Pilot, Raje, and Gehlot, all become very crucial for their respective parties.

Results for the 200 seat Assembly will be declared in Sunday, 3 December.