Why Gujarat Exit Polls Suggest That Most of AAP’s Vote Share Is From Congress

We did the number-crunching so you don't have to. Here are the key insights between the lines.

A detailed analysis of multiple exit polls by The Quint shows that the lion's share of AAP's increase in vote share in Gujarat appears to have come at the expense of the Congress rather than that of the BJP.

(Photo: Meghnad Bose/The Quint)

A detailed analysis of multiple exit polls by The Quint shows that the lion's share of AAP's increase in vote share in Gujarat appears to have come at the expense of the Congress rather than that of the BJP.

While pollsters predict that the BJP vote share will not drop by much, the Congress is estimated to witness a severe drop in vote share, matched by an even more drastic rise in vote share for the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party.

We did the number-crunching so you don't have to, and made sense of it too. Here are the exit poll predictions, and the key insights between the lines.

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BJP: Seventh Win in a Row?

Will BJP's vote share change? Will it see a decrease?

Exit polls predict that the BJP will not see much of a vote share change.

Congress: Stands To Lose the Most?

Will Congress' vote share change? And by how much?

Exit polls predict that compared to 2017, the Congress will see a significant reduction in vote share.

Axis MyIndia and ETG predict the most drastic decrease for the Congress, pegging the fall at 15.4 and 18 percentage points respectively.

AAP: The Damning Dent?

How much vote share are pollsters predicting for AAP? And whose vote share will it dent?

The newest big player in the fray is the Aam Aadmi Party, whose vote share has increased manifold from 0.1% in 2017 (when they had fielded 29 candidates).

ETG estimates a 24.2% vote share for AAP, predicting a larger vote share for the Kejriwal-led party than even the Congress, whom they have pegged at 23.4%.

Axis MyIndia is giving AAP a flattering 20% vote share in their first major Gujarat election, with the Congress only 6 percentage points ahead of them.

CVoter and PMARQ have AAP pegged around 15% vote share, and Jan Ki Baat at a 12-19% range.

AAP’s Gain Is Cong’s Loss? Here’s the Number-Crunching

Notice the trend - whose vote share is AAP causing more of a dent in, the BJP or the Congress?

Axis MyIndia pegs the Congress' decrease in vote share from 2017 at 15.4 percentage points, which equals 77.4% of AAP's increase in vote share.

On the other hand, according to the same exit poll, the amount that the BJP's vote share has decreased by is only 15.6% of the amount AAP's vote share has increased by.

ETG places the Congress' decrease in vote share from 2017 at 18 percentage points, which is 74.7% of AAP's increase in vote share. In comparison, the scale of BJP's vote share decrease is only 10% of the scale of AAP's vote share increase.

CVoter puts the Congress' decrease in vote share from 2017 at 8.4 percentage points, which is 56.4% of AAP's increase in vote share. As per the same exit poll, the amount that the BJP's vote share has decreased by is only 0.7% of the amount AAP's vote share has increased by.

So, all in all, is AAP's gain coming from Congress' loss? And in our 'first past the post' system, will this result in the BJP winning more seats than they did in 2017 without increasing their own vote share?

Counting Day will have the answers.