The Uttar Pradesh elections have reached the halfway mark. After the conclusion of four phases today, three phases remain, one in Ayodhya and two in Purvanchal. The marathon election, which has generated enormous interest, will culminate on 7 March.
The two main contenders for the chief ministerial post, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party’s (SP) Akhilesh Yadav have been engaged in a war of words, attacks/counter attacks, strategies/counter-strategies to outdo each other.
While the Samajwadi Party (SP) is focusing on holding press conferences and yatras to spread its message, the BJP is focusing on holding physical/virtual rallies and door-to-door campaigns by the top leadership.
In this electoral game, it's all about who blinks first.
BJP's Big Campaigns
The BJP has a bigger spread in its buffet vis-a-vis other parties. From Hindutva, law and order, development to Modi-Yogi jodi and labharthi politics it has various offerings to cater to various cohorts/segments of voters. It also has an array of leaders whom it can bank upon for campaigning, ranging from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.
On the other hand, the SP and the BSP are dependent upon Akhilesh and Mayawati to carry most of the burden of campaigning and formulating strategy.
Clear Strategies for Each Phase
The BJP’s strategy in phase 1 and phase 2 was counter-consolidation against Jats and Muslims. The SP-RLD alliance was breathing down its neck exploiting the anger amongst Jats on account of farm bills later repealed.
Akhilesh and Jayant were also trying to revive the Jat-Muslim (JAM) bhaichara (harmony) that was ruptured after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. The JAM population ranged from 25% to 50% in western Uttar Pradesh. The BJP's strategy here was to counter-consolidate upper castes, NYOBC and non-Jatavs to challenge the JAM might.
In phases 3 and 4, the BJP's strategy centred around labharthi politics as the minority population is low in these phases and counter-consolidation may not work. Yogi claims that Uttar Pradesh is number 1 in the implementation of 44 central schemes. The BJP has created a loyal vote bank of beneficiaries cutting across caste and religious lines.
In phase 4, to seize upon the Ahmedabad blast case verdict, the BJP also brought in nationalism in its pitch. This phase has urban and semi-urban centres like Lucknow, Pilibhit, Kheri and Unnao, and the party hopes it may appeal to this section of voters.
In phase 5, in which the Ayodhya votes, the strategy is likely to be centred around Hindutva politics and how the BJP has ensured the construction of the Ram Mandir and fulfilled its long-due promise.
OBC Politics in Focus in Phases 6 &7
In phases 6 and 7, where polling moves to Purvanchal, OBC politics takes the centre stage and the BJP is likely to play up Modi as the tallest OBC leader of India. It is likely to harp on its high representation given to OBCs to neutralise caste-based alliances of the SP with Rajbhar and Apnal Dal faction.
For the SP, the strategy was the consolidation of Jat and Muslim votes in phases 1 and 2 in Western Uttar Pradesh. It entered into an alliance with the RLD, which has the backing of Jats, who were leading the farmers’ agitation.
In phase 3, where the minority population was just 11% and Dalit population 22%, higher than the state average, it focused on the ‘Samajwadi+Ambedkarwadi’ strategy to woo the BSP's Dalit voters.
In phase 4, after Modi's remark that cycles were used to plant bombs in Ahmedabad blasts, Akhilesh has hit back, highlighting the cycle as the common man's aeroplane. He is attempting to show the BJP in poor light by igniting rural India's pride, the cycle. He hopes it may have the same effect as the Prime Minister's infamous DNA comment in Bihar, which turned the tables in favour of the Nitish-Lalu alliance.
In phase 5, Akhilesh is employing the soft Hindutva strategy to counter the hardcore Hindutva push of the BJP. The SP has given fewer tickets to Muslim candidates this time to shed its Muslim-Yadav image. Akhilesh has also gone hopping temples to showcase he is in no way a smaller Hindu than most BJP leaders.
In phases 6 and 7, the SP is likely to focus on Mandal politics and play up its promise of OBC census to dent the non-Yadav OBC vote bank of the BJP. It has formed a formidable alliance with the SBSP to woo Rajbhars, and Apnal Dal faction to woo Kurmis, and inducted Swami Prasad Maurya to woo Mauryas.
Can Mayawati Be the Kingmaker?
Mayawati, on the other hand, started with an eerie silence. She probably felt that the BSP had no chance in the election and preferred to conserve resources. However, opinion polls showing a close fight may have prompted her to believe she can play the role of kingmaker post-polls in a hung assembly scenario.
She may have been perturbed by the BJP and the SP's efforts to make a dent in the BSP's core Dalit vote bank, and had to come out of her shell. The BSP intends to play the role of spoiler in most seats.
The Congress, on the other hand, led by Priyanka Gandhi, has played the woman card, ladki hoon lad sakti hoon (I’m a woman, I can fight), to neutralise the caste factor, as the party doesn't have the support of even one caste group in Uttar Pradesh. While she has been drawing crowds, it remains to be seen whether that actually converts into votes.
(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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