Mayawati-Akhilesh’s ‘Alliance Driven By People’ Could Harm BJP

In UP, Mayawati’s bold move to accept a pre-poll alliance with arch rival SP seems to be working smoothly.

After four phases of polling in Uttar Pradesh, BSP supremo Mayawati’s bold move to accept a pre-poll alliance with arch rival Samajwadi Party (SP), appears to be working smoothly. Reports from the ground suggest that the BSP’s core support base of Jatavs has collaborated surprisingly well with the SP’s Yadavs, who were not so long ago seen as oppressors.

Supported in Western UP by a sizeable section of Jats – another previous oppressor of Jatavs – and backed by a consolidated bloc of Muslim voters – this extraordinary coalition of social groups in the country’s most populous and politically crucial state, could halt the mighty Modi juggernaut, and be the game-changer in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

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In her long roller-coaster ride through the byzantine lanes of Uttar Pradesh politics over the decades, Behenji had steadfastly turned her back on pre-poll alliances, in the belief that it would diminish – not amplify – her party’s prospects.

The gathbandhan therefore, is a huge gamble for the Dalit leader, and its success so far has come as a welcome surprise for Mayawati.

“UP’s Dalit Community Pushing Behenji, And Not the Other Way Around”

Mayawati also seems increasingly comfortable with the unfamiliar task of a joint poll campaign with another party leader, and that too with a former political foe. This is evident from the body language shared by her and SP president Akhilesh Yadav at joint rallies, which are increasing in number, beyond what was originally planned.

Yet, the real reason for the success of the alliance is not personal chemistry between the two leaders, although the young Yadav chieftain has gone out of his way to keep Behenji happy. In Lucknow, Dalit activists, middle-ranking Samajwadi Party leaders, and independent political pundits were unanimous that the ‘gathbandan’ was not propelled by leaders of the parties in the alliance, but by compulsions on the ground.

“This is an alliance driven by people themselves, which the gathbandhan leaders carried forward by the momentum from below,” asserted Ramesh Dixit, a veteran observer of UP elections, who also heads the state unit of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

“It is the Dalit community in the state that is pushing Behenji, and not the other way ‘round. There was tremendous pressure from BSP supporters that the party join hands with all those opposed to the BJP, and at least for the moment, past bitterness with the Yadavs and the Jats do not matter. I can promise you that Dalits will be voting for Mayawati in much larger numbers this time than ever before, and she is well aware of that,” said Dalit activist Ram Kumar, who is the founder of the Dynamic Action Group, one of the most prominent Dalit NGOs in Uttar Pradesh.

A Change in Social Dynamics & Political Fallout

The Samajwadi Party supporters also admit that had there not been a concerted demand from their two main support groups – Yadavs and Muslims – for an alliance with the Jatavs, it would have been difficult for their leader, Akhilesh, to make the gathbandhan work. Memorable scenes at the recent joint rally of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati at Mainpuri – where the Yadav patriarch asked his followers to touch the feet of the Dalit leader – underline the incredible change in social dynamics in the state, and their fallout on political equations.

There are several reasons that have brought disparate social groups together and make the gathbandhan a feasible electoral combine that has upset the BJP’s plan to polarise the elections between Hindus and Muslims.

For the Jatavs, who have been getting increasingly nervous about the failure of Behenji’s solo social engineering projects (leading to repeated electoral defeats for the BSP), the alliance with the Samajwadi Party offers new hope for a revival of their leader and party.

SC’s Amendment of SC/ST Atrocities Act, Adityanath’s Reign: Reasons Behind Dalit Mobilization

Bitterness among Jatavs over Yadav atrocities – when the Samajwadi Party was in power in the state just a few years ago – have been largely diffused, not only because of Akhilesh treating Mayawati with deference, but also concerted attempts for a rapprochement on the ground. “There is a big difference from the past in the relationship between the two communities, after Yadav supporters of the Samajwadi Party have been going around Jatav urban colonies and village clusters with folded hands, asking for bhaichara,” said Ram Kumar.

Dalit activists however, feel that the real trigger for desperation within the community – to seek help from all quarters to oust the BJP – has come after the agitation against the SC amendment of the SC/ST Atrocities Act in UP, and other places in north India in 2018, was brutally crushed.

This, along with resentment about other recent tinkering by the higher courts diluting reservations in government-run educational institutions and departments, has led to anger and alienation with the political establishment – not only among Jatavs, but also other Dalit communities like Pasis and Valmikis, who have traditionally leaned towards the BJP.

Similarly, the Yadavs too feel victimised, ever since Adityanath assumed the reins of power in Lucknow.

“There has been a systematic attempt by the Adityanath state government (since it was elected two years ago), to remove Yadavs and other backward castes, from key posts in the civil administration and police. So it is not surprising that they are joining hands with other marginalised communities like the Muslims and Dalits. “The ‘real face’ of Hindutva has been exposed as an upper-caste project,” remarked Athar Siddiqi, who runs the Centre of Objective Research and Development in Lucknow, and is an ardent campaigner for the Samajwadi Party.

Muslims Form the Bulwark of the ‘Gathbandhan’ in UP

The fiercest support comes from the large Muslim minority in Uttar Pradesh, who form the bulwark of the gathbandhan. Terrorised by the Hindutva politics of the Centre and state, the Muslims are likely to vote – perhaps for the first time – tactically in one direction. They, while leaning towards the Samjajwadi Party, have also tended to vote in good numbers for other parties like BSP and Congress in previous elections.

A good example of this silent resolve of the Muslims to not to split their vote, is the plight of Imran Masood, the Congress candidate from Saharanpur. Imran Masood is a popular local Muslim leader who is also reported to be friends with the Bhim Army chief Chandrasekhar Azad, and was widely expected (some weeks ago )to split both the Muslim and the Jatav vote.

However, reports from the constituency suggest that he has been relegated to a poor third position, with the support of Muslims and Jatavs consolidating behind the gathbandhan candidate. Similarly, Raj Babbar of the Congress was asked by Muslim leaders to shift from his traditional Moradabad constituency – where there is a strong gathbandhan candidate – to Fatehpur Sikri, where there is a weaker one.

Indeed, the Congress – despite the media buzz around the Gandhis – have been relegated to the background in most constituencies, expect the few where the gathbandhan has weak candidates. 

There is little doubt that the real challenge to the BJP election machine – led by the Prime Minister himself and fueled by enormous financial resources and administrative clout in UP – is between this less-than-six -month-old alliance, driven by people and not leaders.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist and the author of ‘Behenji: A Political Biography of Mayawati’. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)