US President Joe Biden and the Americans turned out to be right on this one. They have been warning for the past two months that Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to invade Ukraine. Many, including countries like France, Germany, China and India, had believed – or wanted to believe – that the Russians were posturing and would not carry through their threats. Now, they are scrambling to deal with the situation.
One thing you can say about the Russians is that they make no bones about their end goals. President Putin spelt them out in his address to the nation on Thursday. He put it bluntly: “We will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine.”
Demilitarising Is the End of Ukraine as a 'Nation-State'
Since military capacity is a vital attribute of modern states, demilitarising suggests the end of Ukraine as a nation-state, at least as of now.
A conventional attack by the largest European country on the second-largest is likely to be a turning point in the history of Europe. But its reverberations will be felt globally by countries like India and China.
As of now, New Delhi seems stunned by the developments. Prime Minister Modi spoke to Putin on Wednesday with an anodyne call for “concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue”. But as of now, the Indian side has not expressed any regret for Russia’s action or taken any substantive position on it.
India and China had been calling for the situation to be resolved on the basis of the Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015, which would restore the formal authority of the Ukraine government over the region, but make provisions for their autonomy as well. But all that has now been overtaken by events.
War, like murder, cannot be justified under any circumstances unless it is unambiguously in self-defence. Putin has invoked the UN Charter’s Article 51, which says nothing in the charter “shall impair the right of individual or collective self-defence”. He said he was acting on behalf of the breakaway Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s Republics”, which the Russians conveniently created three days before the invasion.
The attack has brought to an end the period of security that Europe has known since the end of World War II, a period that enabled the political dream of a united European state.
Now that state has to see how it will deal with a situation that has implications for its security and stability as well as for the Eurasian, if not the global balance of power.
How NATO & the EU Used Russia's Weakness
That said, it is difficult to deny that the NATO and the European Union (EU) tempted nemesis by riding rough-shod over stated Russian concerns for its security, and instead of aiding Russia to participate in the European project, they used its weakness to disregard its interests and concerns and expanded NATO through the 1990s.
The pushback finally came with the Georgia-Russia war, where the former lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Now, it's Ukraine’s turn, and no one can say that there have not been any warnings of what could happen.
Relations between Russia and NATO have been going downhill for a while, and the big casualties here are the arms control agreements that had stabilised Cold War Europe – the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, or the Open Skies Treaty.
Today, Russia has done something very wrong. But that does not exculpate the Americans and the Europeans for systematically mishandling and, indeed, exploiting the Russian predicament.
They could very well have declared that they would accept Ukraine as a neutral buffer state. Instead, they not only armed the Ukrainians with advanced anti-air and anti-tank missiles but also sent trainers there. Now, they are telling them that it is their job to fight to death, when there is no chance of success.
What 'Denazification' Really Means
Where do we go now?
That is not easy to forecast. The Russians claim that their act is not a war, but “a special military operation” to demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine. Since no sovereign state is likely to voluntarily demilitarise, the immediate Russian aim is to use shock and awe to obtain a Ukrainian surrender. As for “denazification”, it is a code for purging the Ukrainian polity of all nationalist elements.
What the Russians could have in mind is some kind of “Finlandisation”, which, too, was born out of the military circumstances confronting Finland after World War II. Or, Moscow may decide that it’s a better option to create a Belarus-like entity ruled by its proteges.
This is surely a remarkable situation for a member of the United Nations. It is one thing for the Israelis to prevent the rise of the Palestinian nation by military occupation, but quite another for Russia to effectively compel a member of the UN to dismantle its military and reshape its polity.
An Unfortunate Echo in India
Biden’s statement that “the prayers of the entire world are with Ukraine” has an unfortunate echo in India. On 20 November 1962, as Indian forces collapsed in the eastern sector, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru declared, “My heart goes out to the people of Assam at this hour.” Nehru was accused – though unfairly – of abandoning Assam. Just what history’s judgment on Biden would be remains to be seen from how he handles this unprecedented situation where two nations are at war for the first time since World War II.
The United States has made it clear that it is not going to get involved in the war as such. Its counter-moves will be to sanction Russia for the action. It remains to be seen how this will play out. There can be little doubt that the US has the global clout to hurt Russia badly, but whether it will modify the Kremlin’s behaviour is the question. Putin’s tone and his strong sense of Russian grievances suggest that the Russians will dig in, rather than compromise, at least till Putin is around.
Why Beijing Is in a Quandary
The invasion poses particularly difficult choices for China and India. The Chinese quandary was evident from official spokeswoman Hua Chunying‘s denial on Thursday morning that Beijing was backing Ukraine, noting that “China did not wish to see what happened in Ukraine today”. The Chinese have long insisted on a strict interpretation of the rights of sovereignty and non-interference in the affairs of states, and this action undermines that position.
In retrospect, Beijing must be regretting the joint statement it signed with Russia on 4 February declaring that the bonds between the two countries had “no limits” and that there were “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” between them.
Beijing may be happy that the European predicament will compel the US to shift its focus away from the Indo-Pacific. But the attack will also force Beijing off its detached perch because Europe is its major market and source of technology. Further, Ukraine has had close ties with China, from where it has obtained important military technology.
India's Dilemma
India’s dilemma is no less complex. We are deeply dependent on arms transfers from Russia as well as for technologies required in certain strategic weapons and platforms, such as missiles and nuclear-propelled submarines. As it is, the sword of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is hanging over our head for the S-400 acquisition. You can be certain that the Americans, who have not been too happy with the Russian arms trade, will make it a major target.
In a situation like this, the “if you are not with us, you are against us” logic becomes pre-eminent, and this is bound to generate friction. This would be despite the fact that in its recent Indo-Pacific Strategy document, the Biden administration confirmed India’s key role as “a driving force of the Quad” and the need to aid the rise of the country.
Baldly put, US policy, for long, has aimed at preventing the rise of a hegemon at either end of Eurasia. But there had been a clear primacy to cross-Atlantic ties, which were seen as a principal basis of national security and prosperity. Now, with European security undermined, the Americans may have to de-rate their Indo-Pacific focus. And with Russia in the international doghouse, India may have to rebalance its global posture.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)