Rajasthan is now voting in a keenly watched battle between Chief Minister (CM) Ashok Gehlot and Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, with the latter having been the face of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP's) campaign.
A million-dollar question on everyone’s minds is: Will the trend of alternate governments continue or does the jaadugar have one last trick up his sleeve? Many competing, conflicting, and parallel themes are in play in Rajasthan this time, making it a complex affair.
Ashok Gehlot is popular. He leads the CM-related ratings across polls, and the satisfaction rating with his government is high. However, there is very little voting based on the CM face in a Vidhan Sabha election — only 4 percent in 2018 as per the CSDS pre-poll.
Anti-Incumbency Poses a Major Challenge
While Gehlot is not unpopular, there is a high level of anti-incumbency against local level MLAs.
As per a Newslaundry analysis, out of 621 sitting MLAs of both the Congress and the BJP who have contested in the last four elections (2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018), only 38 percent have been re-elected. This shows why there is a revolving-door mechanism in Rajasthan.
While the strike rate of the Congress party’s sitting MLAs who have contested is even poorer at 25 percent, the BJP’s corresponding number is around 50 percent. In this context, the decision of the Congress to deny tickets to just 19 sitting MLAs out of 108 (18 percent) could be crucial. The BJP, on the other hand, denied tickets to 11 sitting MLAs of its 73 (15 percent). The number of sitting MLAs denied tickets by the Congress in Chhattisgarh is much higher at 30 percent.
Aware of this trend, Gehlot has tried to convert the election into a presidential battle with Modi. However, 37 percent of voters believe that while voting, Modi matters more to them than Ashok Gehlot. 32 percent believe Gehlot matters more. At least 20 percent say that both are equally important, according to the results of the NDTV-CSDS Lokniti survey.
Despite Gehlot’s effort to pitch himself against Modi, the battle is also about local issues, local candidates, caste dynamics on each seat, rebels, dummy candidates, and the track record of MLAs, etc. A seat-by-seat battle is always difficult for any incumbent to contest.
Will Shift in Regional Dynamics Work for Congress?
The Congress has been in power in two of the last three terms. The party, however, faces structural issues. It scraped through in 2008 and 2018 while losing big time in 2003 and 2013. This is because there are 54 seats which the party has not won in the last three polls since the delimitation of 2008. These weak seats pull down the Congress tally.
Rajasthan in many ways is a five-election into one contest.
There are no stronghold regions of the Congress, while the BJP boasts of Mewar and Harouti as its relatively strong areas. The other regions, that is, Dhundhar, Marwar, and Shekhawati, flip in line with the overall state trend.
In the 2023 elections, the regional dynamics are witnessing changes as indicated by the C-Voter opinion poll. The Congress party is seen leading in Shekhawati, which was the hotbed of the farmers' protests in the state, and also in Dhundhar, where the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) has become a big issue. It is also Sachin Pilot’s area.
The BJP is consolidating its position in Mewar and Harouti, while Marwad (Ashok Gehlot’s area) is flipping in line with the trend.
Gehlot has learnt his lessons from Tamil Nadu (2016) and Kerala (2021), which are case studies of breaking the trend of the revolving door mechanism. He has launched a slew of schemes copying the Amma model but there is no significant cash transfer yojana like the Ladli Behna or the PM Kisan Nidhi which have more impact.
He has also launched an extensive PR campaign copying Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan’s model highlighting the achievements of his state government and poll guarantees. However, he has made it all about himself, alienating Sachin Pilot, thereby risking the support of Gujjars who with 6-7 percent of the population can influence the outcome of 40 seats.
Community Goodwill is Key to Acing Polls
The Gujjars, who have traditionally backed the BJP, supported the Congress in 2018 with the hope of seeing their community leader (Pilot) as the CM. The Congress won 24 of 40 such seats in 2018, while the BJP had won 29 in 2013. Modi is trying to woo the community back into the BJP fold by highlighting the 'injustice' being done to the Pilots by the Congress, first to his father Rajesh, and now Sachin.
Unemployment, inflation, corruption, women's safety, and law and order are the big issues in Rajasthan's elections. A section of the key voting blocks, that is, women and the youth, were disillusioned with the Gehlot government. He has launched schemes to pacify these groups like the Urban NREGA and free smartphones. But will these work?
Farmers are still unhappy with the BJP over the Farm Bills, mainly the influential Jat community. However, the Congress hasn’t been able to milk this as effectively, with Hanuman Beniwal’s party getting good traction among the Jats, especially the youth.
The Congress party has made the caste census a big issue in the elections, but when it comes to ticket distribution, it hasn’t offered more tickets to the OBCs than the BJP. Despite all the hype over the issue, 56% of respondents (CSDS) said that the caste census should not be conducted or had no opinion on it. So, is the Congress' strategy with respect to the census going to work?
Vasundhara Raje and the Women Voters
A lot of debate has taken place on whether the BJP has scored a self-goal by not announcing Vasundhara Raje as its CM face.
While she still leads the pack amongst BJP leaders in the CSDS survey with 14 percent wanting to see her as the CM, a higher number (15 percent) of respondents want any BJP leader as their CM. Will this strategy be a masterstroke or will it flop badly?
This is linked to the all-important woman vote.
Women are lower in number in the state but turned out in larger numbers to vote, thus neutralising the lower voting population factor to some extent. Will they vote for Gehlot, who is providing LPG cylinders at Rs 500, or will they back the BJP due to Vasundhara and the incumbent's poor track record on women's safety?
The Others (smaller parties like the RLP, the AAP, the BSP, the BTP splinter group, and independents) have always had a dominant role in state politics with an average vote share of 20 percent, and bagging 20 seats on average.
Who will they damage more? It's a seat-by-seat calculation, similar for rebels who number almost equally in both parties.
We are up for a fascinating contest. May the best man/woman win.
(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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