In the aftermath of the biggest upset in Pakistan's electoral history, which has returned a hung parliament and the largest number of 'independent' winners who will determine the shape of government, several questions abound.
How and why did this upset happen? Which parties will form a government? How fair was the election? If it was unfair, who was it unfair to?
Pakistan: PTI-Backed Independents May Ace Elections, but What Remains of Imran?
1. What Will Imran-Backed Independents’ Do Next?
The national election vote count recently concluded with Imran Khan-backed independents taking a lead by winning 101 of the 264 seats as per the election commission website – followed by Nawaz Sharif's party Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PMLN) winning 75 seats, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) third with 54, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 17 seats in the National Assembly.
The angry backlash in the shape of furious supporters of Imran Khan turning out to vote has taken everyone by surprise.
But, unfortunately for him, Imran Khan's intransigence over holding intra-party elections, according to the law of the land, has left him with all these winners who rode his popularity wave but are not bound to him.
They contested as 'independents' and are now free to either stay loyal to him or to join any other party likely to form a government.
It remains to be seen as to how many will fly to other parties, and how many choose to sit in Opposition as a pressure group. But it was my assertion in my last column in this space that most contestants were absolute newcomers and many opportunists who are more likely than not to now head towards parties likely to form a government.
Expand2. Peaceful Polling: The Calm Before the Storm?
There are a total of seventy reserved seats that are allotted to political parties proportionally to their seats in parliament.
Since the PTI has not contested as a party, all of its 'would-have-been' twenty-four reserved seats will also be distributed among the PMLN, the PPP, and the MQM – making it a walk in the park for these parties to form a government.
Together they need a total of 169 seats to form government, but together with all reserved seats, they will hit a whopping majority of 217 seats in the National Assembly. And that is what the shape of the government to come looks like.
As to the fairness of the election process, much of the crackdown on PTI leaders by the military establishment can fairly be characterised as pre-poll rigging. But then it is equally fair to say that Mr Khan courted the crackdown with repeated and egregious violations of the law culminating in the 9 May insurrection and an attempt to cause a rebellion in the Armed Forces.
The polling day has been widely reported as a fair process. The proof lies in the pudding – no one attempted to stop his voters from casting their votes, nor interfered with the counting of votes.
However, the post-poll delay in notifying the results has raised suspicions.
Expand3. Can the New Government Initiate Reforms?
If post-poll rigging is happening to favour the PMLN, it is rather inexplicable that the party has lost its strongest constituencies in the traditional PMLN heartlands in central Punjab like Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Jhang, etc.
Looking at the numbers here, it appears that the PTI did not increase its support in these areas but the PMLN lost support since there was genuinely a low turnout of PMLN voters.
It's a case of Imran Khan having run away with the PMLN's anti-establishment narrative, his party's unparalleled and sophisticated use of technology primarily targeted at the largest voter group ie, the youth, and the PMLN not having a narrative to sell.
Short memories heaping all the economic failures of the PTI and its lasting effects on the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government didn't help either.
The most important question next is: what the new coalition government will be able to deliver.
It is pretty clear from their manifestos and their speeches that neither Nawaz nor Zardari has any appetite or will to carry out the deep structural economic reforms that Pakistan needs badly. These have almost immediate political costs with long-term results.
Expand4. Can Imran’s 'All Hell Breaks Loose’ Stance Sustain Him in Politics?
And a minute after coming into power, Pakistani leaders go into survival mode trying to ward off overthrow. They are, perhaps understandably, unable to take on public ire and an overbearing military at the same time.
Having said that, both Zardari and Nawaz believe they will be able to serve the people better once they have fixed the civil-military imbalance.
Therefore, it is highly likely they will throw the public under the bus for the time being, and work quietly through legislation, etc, to correct the civil-military balance as a priority in this round. In this arena, together they can be a lethal combo like they were in 2010.
What will be Imran Khan's future? Anyone would think that with the massive popular support demonstrated in this election, he is bound to make a comeback. There are several problems with that perfectly reasonable assumption.
One major problem is that he has demonstrated definitively that he cannot leverage that support into political gains. Politics is a long game, but he treats it as a T-20.
Expand
What Will Imran-Backed Independents’ Do Next?
The national election vote count recently concluded with Imran Khan-backed independents taking a lead by winning 101 of the 264 seats as per the election commission website – followed by Nawaz Sharif's party Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PMLN) winning 75 seats, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) third with 54, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 17 seats in the National Assembly.
The angry backlash in the shape of furious supporters of Imran Khan turning out to vote has taken everyone by surprise.
But, unfortunately for him, Imran Khan's intransigence over holding intra-party elections, according to the law of the land, has left him with all these winners who rode his popularity wave but are not bound to him.
They contested as 'independents' and are now free to either stay loyal to him or to join any other party likely to form a government.
It remains to be seen as to how many will fly to other parties, and how many choose to sit in Opposition as a pressure group. But it was my assertion in my last column in this space that most contestants were absolute newcomers and many opportunists who are more likely than not to now head towards parties likely to form a government.
Peaceful Polling: The Calm Before the Storm?
There are a total of seventy reserved seats that are allotted to political parties proportionally to their seats in parliament.
Since the PTI has not contested as a party, all of its 'would-have-been' twenty-four reserved seats will also be distributed among the PMLN, the PPP, and the MQM – making it a walk in the park for these parties to form a government.
Together they need a total of 169 seats to form government, but together with all reserved seats, they will hit a whopping majority of 217 seats in the National Assembly. And that is what the shape of the government to come looks like.
As to the fairness of the election process, much of the crackdown on PTI leaders by the military establishment can fairly be characterised as pre-poll rigging. But then it is equally fair to say that Mr Khan courted the crackdown with repeated and egregious violations of the law culminating in the 9 May insurrection and an attempt to cause a rebellion in the Armed Forces.
The polling day has been widely reported as a fair process. The proof lies in the pudding – no one attempted to stop his voters from casting their votes, nor interfered with the counting of votes.
However, the post-poll delay in notifying the results has raised suspicions.
Can the New Government Initiate Reforms?
If post-poll rigging is happening to favour the PMLN, it is rather inexplicable that the party has lost its strongest constituencies in the traditional PMLN heartlands in central Punjab like Faisalabad, Gujranwala, and Jhang, etc.
Looking at the numbers here, it appears that the PTI did not increase its support in these areas but the PMLN lost support since there was genuinely a low turnout of PMLN voters.
It's a case of Imran Khan having run away with the PMLN's anti-establishment narrative, his party's unparalleled and sophisticated use of technology primarily targeted at the largest voter group ie, the youth, and the PMLN not having a narrative to sell.
Short memories heaping all the economic failures of the PTI and its lasting effects on the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government didn't help either.
The most important question next is: what the new coalition government will be able to deliver.
It is pretty clear from their manifestos and their speeches that neither Nawaz nor Zardari has any appetite or will to carry out the deep structural economic reforms that Pakistan needs badly. These have almost immediate political costs with long-term results.
Can Imran’s 'All Hell Breaks Loose’ Stance Sustain Him in Politics?
And a minute after coming into power, Pakistani leaders go into survival mode trying to ward off overthrow. They are, perhaps understandably, unable to take on public ire and an overbearing military at the same time.
Having said that, both Zardari and Nawaz believe they will be able to serve the people better once they have fixed the civil-military imbalance.
Therefore, it is highly likely they will throw the public under the bus for the time being, and work quietly through legislation, etc, to correct the civil-military balance as a priority in this round. In this arena, together they can be a lethal combo like they were in 2010.
What will be Imran Khan's future? Anyone would think that with the massive popular support demonstrated in this election, he is bound to make a comeback. There are several problems with that perfectly reasonable assumption.
One major problem is that he has demonstrated definitively that he cannot leverage that support into political gains. Politics is a long game, but he treats it as a T-20.
"Are they going to oust me in a No-Confidence Motion? Let me unconstitutionally dissolve the Assembly instead. Are they going to arrest me? Let me lob petrol bombs at the police. Is the judge going to summon me? Let me threaten her. Am I going to be held accountable for insurrection? Let me cause a rebellion in the Army."
He wants his way, and he wants it now.
This really does not make for a long-term political strategy. Mr Khan has alienated all political parties and their supporters, as well as the establishment. The lack of being able to work with others will prove to be a major impediment in any bid to make a comeback. Therefore, despite popular conjecture, the future he stares into continues to be bleak.
(Gul Bukhari is a Pakistani journalist and rights activist. She tweets @GulBukhari. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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