Mulayam Singh Yadav’s praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the last day of the 16th Lok Sabha is a classic case of “Kahin pe nigahen, kahin pe nishana”.
On the face of it, the Samajwadi Party patriarch was paying a handsome compliment to prime minister in his farewell speech, and out of sheer courtesy, wishing for all outgoing parliamentarians to return in the 17th Lok Sabha which, both in terms of probability and political exigency, are unfeasible, and just wishful thinking.
Real ‘Target’ of Mulayam’s Praise for Modi – Sonia
But the real target was the person sitting right next to Mulayam Singh Yadav – Sonia Gandhi – who seemed to be enjoying the last day of her fourth term in the Lok Sabha, appeared to a bit unsettled when the Yadav said, “I congratulate the prime minister because he has tried to take everybody along. I want to say that all members must win and come again, and Narendra Modi should become the prime minister again.”
In a flash, Sonia Gandhi’s mind may have raced back to the summer of 1999 when Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s ministry had lost a confidence vote in parliament. Mulayam had led Sonia Gandhi to believe he would support her bid to form an alternative government. A confident Sonia declared before TV cameras that she had the support of 272 MPs – the majority mark in the Lok Sabha – only for Mulayam to do an about-turn again, leaving her red-faced.
When Mulayam was complimenting Modi, at 6, Janpath, barely two kilometres from the parliament house, serious attempts were on to carve a pre-poll alliance among non-NDA constituents. At Sharad Pawar’s residence, Mamata Banerjee, Chandrababu Naidu, Farooq Abdullah and Arvind Kejriwal were deliberating, when NCP’s Praful Patel suggested that Rahul Gandhi should be called to join the discussion. Naidu dialed Rahul who arrived within half an hour.
Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Game Plan
But what is Mulayam Singh Yadav’s game plan?
The 79-year-old is a maverick, and a politician among politicians. It is an open fact that he does not get along with his son Akhilesh Yadav. In a private conversation, Mulayam said he was unhappy with the way Akhilesh had gone an extra mile to stitch an alliance with arch-rival Mayawati. Mulayam is reportedly of the view that Akhilesh’s friendship with Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi are proving detrimental to the Samajwadi Party’s cause.
The presence of Priyanka Gandhi in eastern Uttar Pradesh – an unofficial Samajwadi fiefdom – is another issue unsettling the old Samajwadi in Mulayam. The sum and substance of these factors is that on any given day, Mulayam Singh Yadav would prefer a strong BJP with Samajwadis occupying the entire competitor’s space, than a ragtag coalition where Samajwadis were getting only a slice.
The bigger question is whether Mulayam – struggling with health and political relevance – can upstage Akhilesh – or will the young ‘Tipu’ demonstrate greater influence on the hearts and minds of the core Samajwadi vote-bank?
Congress & Samajwadi Party’s Chequered History
Historically, the Congress and Samajwadis have had a chequered history. In 1990, the then Congress chief Rajiv Gandhi had extended an olive branch to a beleaguered Mulayam, who was struggling to keep his chief minister's chair after a break-up within the Janata parivar. The Janata split had reduced Muyalam's government to a minority, with just 121 MLAs in a House of 425. Rajiv Gandhi, on the advice of Ghulam Nabi Azad and Narayan Datt Tiwari, had instructed his 94 MLAs to support Mulayam.
Till 1989, the Congress’s three pillars of support in Uttar Pradesh were the Brahmins, Dalits and the Muslims, who together made up nearly half the state’s voters. But the Mandal churning over caste-based reservations, and the Ayodhya temple dispute, moved the ground from under the party’s feet.
Mulayam walked away with the Muslims, the Bahujan Samaj Party with the Dalits, and the BJP with a large section of the upper-castes.
Now that the Congress under Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is making a renewed bid to regain a foothold in Uttar Pradesh, Mulayam Singh Yadav seems wary. His compliment to Modi is part of an unwritten quid pro quo. The BJP under Modi may go on thriving as long as it yields the challenger-space, wholly and solely to the Samajwadis. This script has kept Mulayam relevant, except for 2004-2014, when, despite getting 36 and 23 Lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh in 2004 and 2009 respectively, Mulayam was rendered irrelevant by none other than Sonia Gandhi.
Sonia Gandhi Can’t Depend on Mulayam
Sonia views Mulayam as an unpredictable ally. After several rounds of poll debacle in UP, Sonia and the Congress had realised that if Mulayam and the Samajwadis cannot be defeated, they should be co-opted.
Somewhere, Mulayam seems to be resisting, even as his son has taken some shine to it.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP are not sitting idle. While they display confidence in winning the 2019 Lok Sabha with ease, party managers are ready with plan B, C and D to meet post May 2019 exigencies. In any fluid situation, Mulayam and Pawar may be useful players to pull of a 1999.
The last lines of the song from iconic film C.I.D sung in the immortal melodious voice of Shamshad Begum goes, “Aya shikari o panchhi tu sambhal ja… Udd ja o panchhi shikari hai deewana…”
(Rasheed Kidwai is author of ‘24, Akbar Road, Ballot’ and ‘Sonia: a Biography’. He is a Visiting Fellow at the ORF. He tweets at @rasheedkidwai. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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