Strange things are happening in the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra where everything seemed just about fine the other day.
Earlier this week, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar expressed surprise over the hurry shown by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) after it decided to announce its first list of 16 candidates for the Lok Sabha elections, including for those seats claimed by the Congress.
The unmistakable sign is that if the Opposition parties failed to unite, they should be ready to hang separately. The path ahead is treacherous as the rival is neither an ordinary one nor does his party follow the niceties of politics.
The MVA has many contradictions but the glue that made the parties stick together was the ever-growing threat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It is no accident that Maharashtra, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, has become a fierce battleground after the BJP split the two most prominent regional parties, i.e., the Shiv Sena and the NCP.
Deputy Chief Minister (CM) Devendra Fadnavis, who calls the shots in the ruling alliance, recently boasted about how his party triumphantly came to power by engineering splits between the two parties. The underlying message was that in the upcoming weeks, the BJP is going to go for the kill.
The Congress' Troubles in Maharashtra
At such a time, the oneupmanship in MVA allies like the Shiv Sena, headed by Uddhav, is going to lead to bad blood unless steps are taken to bring the situation under control.
Uddhav has been fanning out in the cities and the countryside and is getting sizeable responses. Though most of the MLAs have gone with CM Eknath Shinde, most of the ordinary Shiv Sainiks seemed to have stayed with Uddhav.
Since he is fighting for the Thackeray legacy, the BJP has roped in his estranged nephew Raj Thackeray, who heads the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have made ‘Operation Maharashtra’ a prestige issue since the day Uddhav shocked them by joining the Congress and the NCP to form the state government in 2019.
But for the Congress party, the problem in Maharashtra is not having a tall leader. Those having the ear of the high command like Pradesh Congress Committee Chief Nana Patole are ambitious but not capable. Neither can they carry the party with them, nor the rank and file.
Former CM Prithviraj Chavan, though he has been made the state campaign committee chief, no longer enjoys a good rapport with Congress leadership in Delhi. Balasaheb Thorat, despite being senior, knows his limits as he is a prominent sugar-cooperative baron. Ashok Chavan moved to the BJP. Former minister Satej Patil is seen as a promising young leader but Vishwajit Kadam has remained a laggard.
Additionally, Varsha Gaikwad has spoken against the UBT's high-handed methods in some constituencies in Mumbai like Sangli. Thorat said that the Sena (UBT) should have avoided declaring candidates for Sangli and the seats in Mumbai when discussions had not ended.
A redeeming prospect is that a mega rally of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc is scheduled in the national capital on 31 March, which will be attended by Sharad Pawar and Uddhav, as well as the top Congress leadership. This could help sort out some of the problems around seat sharing in Maharashtra.
Troubles could mount for the MVA if it fails to remain united and does not see the big picture of defeating the BJP in the second-largest state after Uttar Pradesh in terms of Lok Sabha seats.
But is All Well Within the NDA?
On the other hand, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Maharashtra is far from united as well. Deputy CM Ajit Pawar had declared earlier in the week that the Mahayuti, as the BJP and its allies in the ruling alliance are called in Maharashtra, would declare their candidates jointly at a press conference on 28 March. Till now, there is no word of such a meet.
With the strong backing of the BJP, Ajit Pawar has succeeded in securing the loyalty of most NCP MLAs and is on the prowl to snatch Baramati from Supriya Sule in the Lok Sabha polls. It is a do-or-die battle with far-reaching implications.
CM Eknath Shinde has announced the names of eight Lok Sabha candidates from his party but is hamstrung that he could not do the same about his own son, Dr Shrikant Shinde. The BJP has been pressing hard for the seat from his home turf, Thane district, where Shrikant is the sitting member.
Shinde and Ajit Pawar know that the BJP is a Mahashakti, and therefore, there is no point in pressing any issue beyond a certain point. But those in their parties who will be denied tickets or given a raw deal won't give up that easily.
The churning in rival alliances over seat sharing is bound to continue in the coming days with Maharashtra having polls in five phases ending 20 May.
The long and short of it is that both sides need to tackle coalition woes with tact, toil, and tolerance for a better play in the state for them and their allies. There is no shortcut.
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