Since 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has time and again stamped its authority as India’s most potent electoral force by winning election after election. The election-winning colossus has tasted success across the country even in areas that were not considered fertile grounds for its brand of politics.
While pundits have often described the Modi-Shah era BJP as almost electorally invincible, the BJP’s track record south of the Vindhyas does not inspire much confidence.
(See the infographic below to see how political parties have performed in the past five assembly elections. Please wait for a few seconds if it hasn’t loaded yet on your screen.)
In this context, the Karnataka polls taking place on 10 May assume greater significance for the saffron party. However, there is more than what meets the eye. At stake is not just the only state in the south where the BJP has considerable presence but what makes the Karnataka elections all the more important is the BJP’s not-so-great track record when it comes up against the age-old “throw the bums out” effect.
Winning is Hard, Defending is Harder
Between 2014-2023, in 31 assembly elections in big and medium-sized states, almost 50 percent, that is, 15 governments managed to stay in power. During the same period, 50 percent of BJP or NDA government's- six out of twelve were voted back to power. On the surface, it might seem that the BJP or NDA has performed reasonably well or at least kept up with the average rate of reelection in state assembly elections but a more detailed inspection and breakdown of these results raises several questions on the “invincibility” of the BJP.
Firstly, the “average” performance, the fact that only 50 percent of BJP or NDA incumbent governments managed to win in 12 assembly elections in big and medium-sized elections, is contrary to the common perceptions of BJP’s electoral prowess.
(See the infographic below to see the seat race between political parties in the past five assembly elections.)
The performance of the BJP’s arch rival, the Congress in defending governments is even worse. In 9 elections between 2014 and 2023, only once did the grand old party or an alliance that it was a part of managed to successfully defend its government. The only such instance i.e. Bihar in 2015 should not really count as the Congress which had contested on 41 seats winning 27 was a marginal player in the Mahagathbandhan playing second fiddle to the RJD-JD(U) combine.
If we separate the Congress party’s record of defending governments and look at the record of non-BJP, non-Congress governments in defending governments at the state level between 2014-2023, the results are astounding. 8 out of 10, that is, 80 percent of non-BJP, non-Congress governments were voted back to power during this period. Contrast this with the performance of the BJP (50 percent) which is supposed to be second to none when it comes to winning elections.
How BJP Escapes the Wrath of an Angry Electorate
A case-by-case analysis of the six instances out of twelve where the BJP or its alliance was voted back to power makes for interesting reading. While in Bihar (2020), it was the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) and not the BJP that only joined the ruling alliance midway in the five-year term that was at the receiving end of anti-incumbency, in the Maharashtra 2019 and Assam 2021 elections, the electoral verdict would have been totally different had the opposition got its coalition act together.
A constituency wise analysis of these two elections shows that if the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) allied with the Congress NCP in Maharashtra and if the new entrants Asom Jatiya Parishad Raijor Dal joined forced with the Congress-led Mahajot in Assam, the BJP would have lost power in these two states.
(See the infographic below to see the change in vote share of political parties in the past five assembly elections.)
A recurring trend in the case of these elections was that the BJP was facing heavy anti-incumbency in each of these states but a basket of factors: new players entering the equation, split in the anti-incumbency votes helped the BJP to escape the wrath of an angry electorate showing signs of heavy anti-incumbency and yearning for change.
While voters have increasingly shown a tendency to shower all praises on Modi for successes, all the anger and disenchantment stemming from the failures of the government (at both levels) appears to be going to the BJP-ruled state governments- lock, stock and barrel. In a way, while Narendra Modi has managed to centralize all credit for himself and his government, the blame has been decentralized and completely deflected to his subordinates.
Karnataka: An incumbent’s nightmare
While India’s ruling party clearly seems to be having some problem with the “throw the bums out” effect in state elections, the state where it faces its next challenge, Karnataka, has been an incumbent’s nightmare in the last four decades. It has been well documented that no incumbent government has been voted back to power in the state since 1985. But one look at the last few assembly elections in the state starting from 1989 is enough to understand why the state has been no happy hunting ground for incumbent governments.
As can be seen from the tables above, Karnataka has not only voted out successive governments starting from 1989 but has punished incumbents severely. Incumbents have seen their seat share percentage dip exponentially ranging from -98.5 percent to -34.42 percent. The results of 2008 assembly elections have not been included here as in the preceding elections held in 2004 no party had managed to win an outright majority and going into the polls in 2008 the state had been under President’s rule for more than six months.
While the decline in seats for the incumbent party appears to have stabilized and reduced over time, the average fall in the seat-share for the incumbent party between two consecutive elections is a whooping -41.37 percentage points. The fact that the best performance in comparative terms for an incumbent government was for the Congress under Siddaramiah in which it still lost more than 40 seats highlights the salience of anti-incumbency in Karnataka’s state elections.
(See the infographic below to see the vote share race between political parties in the past five assembly elections.)
What Both Analyses Mean for BJP in Karnataka
The BJP’s own far from impressive record while defending governments in big and medium-sized states coupled with Karnataka’s electoral history of kicking out incumbents with a bang implies that in the May 10 polls the saffron party could be facing a double whammy.
What has not helped matters so far for the BJP is that unlike most election campaigns where the BJP sets the agenda and the narrative and forces its opponents to react, the BJP appears to be on the backfoot having to respond and react to the narrative set by its opponents. That Karnataka BJP is a house divided and riddled by factionalism. The cabinet reshuffle never happening after multiple delays is an open secret.
(See the infographic below to see the seat race between political parties in the past five Lok Sabha elections.)
On the issue of corruption, on which the BJP usually enjoys the upper hand, the BJP has found itself being cornered by Congress and JD(S) with charges of being a “40 percent” government. From the Amul-Nandini controversy to the controversy around reservations, the Bommai government has been running into troubles uninterruptedly- all signs, possibly signs of nervousness in the saffron camp.
The BJP’s direction to field over 60 new faces in the polls and denying tickets to seasoned campaigners and sitting MLAs could be seen as the party’s way of dealing with anti-incumbency- a strategy which had paid off well for the BJP in last year’s Gujarat elections where it denied tickets to about 40 sitting MLAs. But by denying tickets to senior leaders and sitting MLA- some of whom happen to be Lingayats the party runs the risk of snubbing the community which is central to the party’s prospects in the upcoming polls.
Will the BJP’s gamble pay off helping it to overcome its kryptonite or will another incumbent government bite the dust in Karnataka? We will know that in two weeks from now.
(An alumnus of Mumbai’s St. Xavier’s College, Omkar is currently pursuing a Research Master's degree in Politics at Sciences Po, Paris. His research interests and publications focus on issues and themes like party politics and electoral competition in India, populism, Dravidian politics, voting behaviour, and representation of minorities in India’s lawmaking bodies. Currently, he is working on the ideological transition of the Shiv Sena in the post-Bal Thackeray era. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)