14 seats of Karnataka go to polls in phase two on 26 April, and the remaining 14 will go in phase three on 7 May. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) hopes to maintain, if not improve, its 2019 tally of 25 seats, the Congress hopes to carry its winning record of the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections into Lok Sabha elections and hand the BJP a big defeat.
On the other hand, the JD(S), while facing an existential crisis, is hoping to remain afloat by piggybacking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma.
AHINDA vs Lingayat + Vokkaliga power
While the BJP has managed to crack the OBC vote in the rest of the country by pitching to dominant OBC caste groups like Yadavs versus Non-Yadavs, it hasn’t been able to replicate the same in Karnataka.
It has been getting almost 70 percent Lingayat support and 40 percent Vokkaliga support in LS polls as per CSDS NES 2019. It hopes that the alliance with the JD(S) will get an additional 10 percent Vokkaliga vote and consolidate its hold amongst the two influential communities.
However, this could also backfire as the alliance between the JD(S) and the BJP is seen as two dominant communities accounting for 25 percent of the population coming together and joining hands. This could help the Congress party consolidate the AHINDA (backward classes, Dalit, Adivasi, minorities) vote under the leadership of a Kuruba Chief Minister.
Beneficiaries of State Govt vs Beneficiaries of Central Govt
The implementation of schemes (free bus travel and cash income support to women, free electricity, and free ration) in Karnataka has been good except for maybe the unemployment allowance which was recently rolled out.
The state government has provided Rs 50,000 crores in budget for the same. Women across the state are happy with Rs 2,000 cash income support and free bus travel. Most of the beneficiaries belong to the SC-ST-Lower OBC-Minorities community, which is the core AHINDA vote bloc of the Congress party.
However, the implementation of these guarantees has created a conflict of sorts between the middle and poor sections of society. A section of the middle class as well as upper-caste voters feel these schemes have put a financial strain on the state's finances.
A section of men is also discontented as they are not getting any cash doles and the free bus travel has resulted in overcrowding in buses mostly during rush hours. A segment of students and youth, who attend schools and colleges, also share the same feeling and have been demanding an increase in the frequency of buses mostly in rural areas.
In a way, the battle has transformed into a battle between state government beneficiaries and central government beneficiaries. While a section of labharthis do show an inclination to vote for the Congress, others could make a distinction between state and national elections, and reward Siddaramaiah in state elections due four years from now.
It's also a battle of competing narratives on the ground. The Congress has been able to drive the narrative that if it doesn’t win maximum seats from Karnataka, the state government could fall, and the schemes would stop.
Vote Transfer Issues Between JDS and BJP
The JD(S) has never allied with the BJP in the past, though it has formed post-poll arrangements in the state. Its vote share has seen a sharp drop, halving from around 20 percent levels in 2004 to 10 percent in 2019. It lost 20 percent Vokkaliga support in the 2019 elections when it allied with the Congress and has also lost significant Muslim and SC votes in the 2023 elections where its tally was reduced to half.
The Congress has also gained Vokkaliga support due to the influence of leaders like DK Shivkumar and his brother, DK Suresh.
In the southern Karnataka region, which has eight seats, and Bangalore region, which has 4 seats, the JD(S) enjoys some clout though on a declining trend. The party also has factions between the two sons of Deve Gowda, Revanna and Kumaraswamy, with Revanna favouring the alliance with the Congress while Kumaraswamy is with the BJP.
Despite the alliance being sealed way back in September last year, there have been some tensions as the seats were finalized very late with the local BJP leadership being very vocal about its claim on traditional seats of the JD(S) like Mandya and Hassan.
There is also historical animosity between Vokkaligas and Lingayats as Kumaraswamy refused to transfer power to Yediyurappa in 2007 despite a deal to that effect. Will they vote for each other is a big question. Yediyurappa’s son, Vijayendra, was made State President after the JD(S)’ entry into the NDA. Local reports claim Vijayendra sees Kumaraswamy as a threat and is wary of a Maharashtra-like situation where a smaller party Shiv Sena has occupied the CM chair.
The success of the alliance depends upon the seamless transfer of votes between the JD(S) and the BJP without any significant leakages.
At the all-India level, one in every three voters voted for the BJP in 2019 due to PM Modi. In Karnataka, the number is one in every two. The Modi factor, which was 32 percent in India, was 53 percent in Karnataka in 2019 as per CSDS NES. The Karnataka BJP is heavily reliant on Modi’s charisma to neutralize anti-incumbency against MPs. It has dropped 8 sitting MPs and changed seats of 1 which has led to local resentment and open rebellion in some seats like Shimoga.
There are four seats – Chamrajnagar, Tumkur, Koppal and Bellary – where the BJP won by less than 5 percent margins. In Hassan and Mandya, the co-ordination between JD(S) and BJP workers is the key. While the JD(S) is contesting on 3 seats, the BJP is contesting on 25 seats including Bangalore Rural where the JD(S) candidate and son-in-law of Deve Gowda, Manjunath, is contesting on the lotus symbol.
A fascinating contest on the anvil in Karnataka, and we have to wait till 4 June for the picture to be clearer.
(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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