It was always a question of when and not if the HD Kumaraswamy government will fall, and the Congress-JD(S) coalition will unravel. This was the case from the moment the Congress cobbled together a desperate coalition by offering the chief minister’s post to Kumaraswamy, after the 2018 state assembly election result.
The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 105 MLAs, and was just 7 short of the magic 112 figure in a house of 224. It even used the Raj Bhavan route to get Yeddyurappa sworn in as chief minster, and from the day Kumaraswamy took oath as chief minster, it has been trying to unplug the coalition.
Congress Had No Chance To Survive
Frankly, it was not an easy feat for HD Kumaraswamy to pull through the last 14 months in office. A faction-struck Congress, along with a belligerent BJP, created a permanent, potent, everyday threat.
The BJP spared no effort to topple the government before the Lok Sabha elections, but it survived. However, the disastrous defeat of the coalition in the Lok Sabha polls meant Kumaraswamy’s time was up.
There was always a section in the Congress, including former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, which was unhappy with the JD(S) and HD Kumarasawamy. While Siddaramaiah categorically asserts that he had no part to play in the rebellion within the Congress, several Congress leaders view him with suspicion.
In any case, with or without Siddaramaiah, it became easy for the BJP to poach Congress MLAs after a brute victory in the Lok Sabha polls, and finally the end game played out.
Now that the government has been toppled in Karnataka, what next?
Yeddyurappa Certain to Become Chief Minster, But for How Long?
Kumaraswamy and the Congress have fought till the very end on the trust vote, with the covert support of the speaker. They have made every effort to create a sympathy feeling with the electorate, but it’s not clear if that will work.
It’s unlikely that they have the resources and stamina to derail the BJP, but the fight they put up till the end showed how desperate they were to keep power. However, the moment they lost the government, the BJP took a decisive edge, and with power at the Cente, it seems too tall to fall.
In this situation, the BJP’s BS Yeddyurappa seems certain to become chief minster, but for how long? Numbers are not the issue for the BJP and it will manage that now and with a full house.
The resignation of MLAs from the Congress and JD(S) will necessitate by-elections in those assembly seats, and the BJP may hope to get 5 to 7 more MLAs to have that simple majority in a full house.
It’s important to note that most of the MLAs who have resigned are satraps in their constituencies and are confident of winning their seats irrespective of the party they represent.
However, the party is looking at a long term strategy where it would like to project a new image and cement its position in the state. It may not risk an election in the short term, but it seems keen to shed the baggage of a tainted image that comes with Yeddyurappa.
BJP Likely to Learn From Past Mistakes
He faced allegations of corruption and had to resign from office after a Lokayukta report on mining scam indicted him. More importantly, it does not want to be a party that forms a government which is held hostage to independent or potential rebel MLAs. In the present situation, the rebel MLAs and independents will have a powerful say.
The party is wary of a situation like what it had during its 2007 to 2012 tenure in office, where it was held hostage by the notorious Bellary Reddy brothers and the mining mafia – and will make every effort to not make the same mistake.
Further, Yeddyurappa represents an old-world BJP which depended on the Lingayat sect vote in Karnataka, and was perceived as a party that had limited presence in the Cauvery heartland.
It must be pointed out here that the BJP has never won a simple majority in Karnataka assembly.
But in the last Lok Sabha election that party managed to sweep the state winning 25 of the 28 seats, and backing an independent to win the Mandya seat, where it has had single digit vote shares and was never in the running.
Yeddyurappa Can Keep the BJP Flock Together Till the State Polls
Having won such a landslide victory, the BJP would eventually aim to have a similar assembly election result, but that will require time and effort, and it cannot risk a poll right away. This is why the party will have to go with BS Yeddyurappa for the moment, and slowly build an alternate image and face in the state.
At the moment, without Yeddyurappa, the BJP may also have worries of keeping its flock together and hence he is indispensable. But that may not be the case over a period of time, and the party certainly will make every effort to ensure that it is not dependent heavily on one leader in the State.
Who will be its Generation Next in Karnataka is not clear, but there are hardline political figures that are knocking at the doors of leadership.
On the other hand, the Congress and JD(S) as alliance partners may be in the pages of history.
They will most certainly begin a fight for survival independently. The road is not easy for the two parties.
Siddaramaiah, despite suspicion over his role in the fall of the coalition government, may remain the Congress’s best bet to lead the party – both in the house and outside. He may become the leader of the Opposition and wait to fight another day. But the Congress, as a party, has received a body blow and the road to recovery seems a very long one.
(The writer is an independent journalist. He can be reached @TMVRaghav . This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same)
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