India-Bangladesh ties have never been as much stable, productive, and mutually beneficial as over the last decade and a half. This Shonali Adhhaye or Golden Chapter in the bilateral ties has indeed been the best period so far in 50 years of diplomatic ties between the two nations.
Much of the credit for this remarkable journey must go to the top leadership of the two countries. For India, Bangladesh is now central to India’s “Neighbourhood First Policy” which is the earlier “Neighbourhood Policy” on steroids.
Bangladesh is India’s largest trading, development and the most valuable connectivity partner in the subcontinent. It also accounts for the largest source of foreign tourist arrivals in India, making it the country's closest ally in the region.
Bilateral ties even between the friendliest of neighbours like India and Bangladesh are fraught with certain disagreements and the two countries have a fair share of them on the table. However, in a sign of mature leadership exhibited by both the countries, these differences have been overshadowed by the broad positive trend in the relationship, not holding bilateral ties a hostage to conflict resolution.
PM Sheikh Hasina’s current visit to India is a continuation of exchange of high-level visits between the leaders of the two countries. The foreign minister's absence has however been noted. He courted controversy and was criticised for his remarks which conveyed the impression that he had requested India to ensure that Sheikh Hasina returns to power in 2023. She last visited in 2019, before the COVID pandemic engulfed all countries.
The then President Ram Nath Kovind and Prime Minister Modi had earlier visited Bangladesh for the celebration of 50 years of independence and “Mujib Borsho,” the latter being the birth centenary of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the towering leader of Bangladesh’s freedom struggle. Both celebrations were inaugurated in 2021.
An Upward Trajectory in Bilateral Ties
PM Hasina’s visit to India in 2010 two years after taking office, marked the beginning of the upward trajectory in bilateral ties with the signing of the Framework of Cooperation that was followed up by former PM Manmohan Singh's visit in 2011 and the grant of duty-free access to Bangladesh’s exports to India. Earlier in the year, the external affairs minister (EAM) and the army chief had visited Bangladesh for a consultation to prepare for this visit.
Seven agreements have been recently concluded in sectors like water management, science and technology, railway, law, information and broadcasting among others. Five new infrastructure projects have been announced. One agreement inked is on the water sharing formula of the river Kushyara that flows into Bangladesh from Assam’s Silchar district – the first river-related agreement reached by the two sides, almost two decades since the Ganga Waters Agreement of 1996 was concluded.
This is a positive development. The pending Teesta deal set to be signed during Manmohan Singh's 2011 visit, however, remained caught in the quagmire of Centre-state relations in India. Some flexibility from all sides might help in resuscitating this agreement. Sharing of river waters has been a hardy perennial on the bilateral agenda and the Joint Rivers Commission, established in 1972, has been tasked to find sharing formulae for the 54 trans-border rivers that flow from India into Bangladesh.
Another important issue that will need resolution is the trading framework which will undergo fundamental changes when Bangladesh graduates from a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a developing country, like India, and will no longer be entitled to trade and other benefits that are accorded to LDCs under international and regional trading agreements. Hence, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) becomes crucial to preserve duty-free facilities under a bilateral agreement. CEPA negotiations have begun and the visit may see some developments like laying down a deadline for finalising CEPA.
Increased Cooperation in Energy Sector
The energy sector has witnessed increased cooperation, with a 1,320 MW thermal power plant being built by the NTPC in a 50:50 joint venture with PDB of Bangladesh. The Adani group is also building a 1,600 MW power plant in Godda, Jharkhand, which will supply power to Bangladesh, via a dedicated transmission line. This project is expected to come online by December next year. A pipeline from Numaligarh refinery is completed to deliver petroleum products to Parbatipur in Bangladesh.
India’s Lines of Credit (LoCs) to Bangladesh include USD 500 million for defence-related procurement. This will break down some psychological barriers that have impeded cooperation in this sector. Bangladesh's defence forces are heavily dependent on Chinese military hardware and there is a reluctance to the acquisition of military equipment from India. China provides military hardware to both Pakistan and Bangladesh and facilitates contact between the two militaries. Military doctrines dictate procurement policies and Bangladesh’s defence forces remain hesitant in buying Indian military hardware.
The Rohingya Refugee Crisis
The Rohingya refugee issue has festered and imposed a huge burden on Bangladesh. PM Hasina has repeatedly raised this issue and called upon India to help in its resolution. The ultimate resolution would be the safe return and resettlement of these refugees in Myanmar. The latter, after the military coup, has shown no willingness to help and the million or more refugees remain in camps in Bangladesh. The pressure on India to help resolve the issue is understandable but can India resolve it unilaterally? India can help and it has done so with humanitarian assistance and quiet dialogue with the military government in Naypyidaw. Only international pressure can help but China is unlikely to push Naypyidaw to resolve the issue.
While there is a bipartisan political consensus in India on furthering this relationship, in Bangladesh there remains an anti-Indian constituency that constantly pillories PM Hasina for selling out to India without any commensurate returns. This constituency is motivated by politics and a mindset that remains rooted in the ideology of Pakistan. The two-nation theory did not wither away and die when Bangladesh was born. It lives on as a latent feeling that bursts into the open from time to time. The frequent attacks on Hindus, forcing them to migrate to India, is a manifestation of this mindset.
Bengali Muslims were at the forefront of the Pakistan movement and this legacy was nurtured by military dictators like Gen Ziaur Rahman and Gen Muhammad Ershad, both deeply influenced by their Pakistani training that led them to Islamise Bangladesh.
The policies of the two military dictators permitted Islamist pro-Pakistan collaborators to return to Bangladesh. The progeny of the Muslim Leaguers, emboldened by these developments, viewed Bangladesh’s turning its back on secularism, as a natural progression of the Lahore Resolution which called for Muslim-majority independent states in northwestern and northeastern India.
These sections still believe that breaking up Pakistan was a betrayal of the two-nation ideology and the Pakistan movement.
PM Hasina has consciously striven to reinforce the secular nature of Bangladesh’s polity. With her overwhelming majority in Parliament, she has restored secularism as a founding principle in the Constitution but has avoided expunging the provision which makes Islam the state religion. She has been cautious and does not want to give her opponents the opportunity to hurl allegations of being anti-Islam. She ensured that war criminals were convicted and executed. This dampened the morale of the Islamists, particularly the pro-Pakistani Jamaat-e-Islami.
How Extremism Can Upset Bangladesh's Equation With India
The Islamists in Bangladesh have grown in numbers, as the country diluted secularism and adopted conservative Islamic mores. Organisations like the Hefazet have acquired street power and can mobilise their madrassa cadre for this effort. During PM Modi’s visit, Islamist cadres poured on to the streets, protesting against the visit. Hefazet was riding high till they started demanding and destroying sculptors in public places, including statues of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman. PM Hasina cracked down on the Hefazet and put several of its leaders in prison. This helped in controlling the Islamists who demand that Bangladesh become an Islamic state and fully apply Sharia law.
Islamists with their puritanical vision of Islam will remain a source of danger and instability in Bangladesh. Their networks are linked to Pakistan’s terrorist organisations. They seek to de-stabilise Bangladesh and India for their puritanical ideological goals. Better intelligence cooperation has helped both sides to tackle these disruptive elements. While bilateral ties will continue to grow, these inimical forces will seek to undermine goodwill. Both countries must cooperate more closely against this menace if the future to secure economic growth and prosperity for which India has to bear asymmetrical responsibility.
(The author is a former Secretary in MEA and former Ambassador; he is a founder Director of DeepStrat and a Visiting Fellow at ORF, Delhi. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author's own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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