High-profile new entrants, defections between parties, and rebel candidates – all these contribute to making the Goa assembly election as shifty as beach sand in strong wind.
The campaign has come to life over the past week or so, as tempo trucks decked out in a diverse range of party colours and symbols trundle down roads, blaring high-volume promises. But the 14 February polling day remains unpredictable.
Trinamool & AAP Running Vigorous Campaigns
Having chosen Goa as its battleground to establish a national status, the Bengal-based Trinamool Congress has spent large amounts on hoardings over the past few months. The party inducted some established leaders from the Congress, one of whom (former Chief Minister Luizinho Faleiro) it promptly installed in the Rajya Sabha. Some others, however, defected back, muddying the waters further.
Party president Mamata Banerjee is the party’s face in Goa, too, for all this effort is meant to project her as a national alternative for the Prime Minister’s post. That prospect also animates Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Both parties have run vigorous campaigns across Goa.
The AAP is apparently unfazed by the fact that a similar high-profile campaign during the last Assembly election in 2017 had finally come to naught. Cyril Gomes, the man who led that campaign as AAP’s chief ministerial face, is a leading light of Congress this time, its nominee to represent the state capital, Panjim.
BJP & Congress Have Deep Roots
Goa already has strong local parties such as the Goa Forward (which has allied with Congress this time) and the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, which began life with a campaign to merge Goa with Maharashtra.
Such parties could win a few seats in their leaders’ pockets of influence, and could be crucial kingmakers if a coalition needs to be formed.
However, the BJP and the Congress remain the leading contenders, with strong public recall as well as workers in every little pocket. The results last time showed the deep roots of the duo, however jaded they might have seemed in the run-up, and however much louder newer contenders’ campaigns may have been.
However, how things played out last time – and since – is precisely why both also face voter resentment this time. Though no party won a majority, the Congress won 17 of the 40 seats, while the BJP dipped from its 21-member majority in the previous House to only 13 elected to the new House. The BJP defied that verdict, installing a government after cobbling a majority in its back rooms.
On the other hand, many Goans deride the Congress even more. Not only did it fail to form a coalition after those results, but most of its MLAs defected at various stages, leaving the party finally with only a couple of MLAs in the house. The image of being a party of greedy defectors will hang heavy.
This year's results will show which party voters resent more in general, and the extent to which that disillusionment might lead voters to newer alternatives.
Little Hindutva Effect
Prime Minister Narendra Modi concentrated on attacking the Congress in his public rally in Goa’s third city, Mapusa, on Thursday, indicating that the ruling party sees its major challenge in the traditional rival more than the newer options.
Modi highlighted development projects and further tourism potential, before attacking Nehru for leaving Goa’s freedom fighters to their own devices for years after most of India became independent.
The Prime Minister’s fulsome praise for the relatively young Chief Minister, Pramod Sawant, indicated that he would continue if the BJP wins. In 2017, Amit Shah, who was then the party president, had as good as given marching orders to the incumbent, Laxmikant Parsekar, in the course of a similar public rally. Parsekar is contesting his Mandrem seat as an independent this time.
Perhaps the BJP high command was already preparing to send Parrikar back as Chief Minister. Already since 2015, he apparently had little say in decision-making regarding India’s biggest defence deal, to purchase Rafale fighter jets.
The large crowd seated in the Mapusa ground to hear Modi on the second-last day of campaigning was quiet for the most part. It is tough to read silences, but if the BJP wins Goa, it will be for development more than Hindutva.
Social Harmony
Although Goa has very large numbers of Hindus and Christians, the religious communities are not polarised in the way political campaigns have sought to make them in places like Uttar Pradesh. Society is well-knit and inter-community relations have not been strained by trends elsewhere.
For one thing, the proportion of Christians has steadily decreased from around half several decades ago to around a quarter now, largely owing to short-term as well as permanent migration, both into and out of the state.
The historical memory of discrimination by Portuguese rulers has also not translated into contemporary resentment. So, there is relative harmony between Hindus, Christians, and the smaller Muslim population (the Portuguese won Goa from Bijapur sultans).
This stems partly from a strong local commitment to Goan culture, traditions, cuisine, local deities, and (in each neighbourhood) annual religious processions. This commitment has deepened amid the tide of migrants of various classes from other parts of the country. Indeed, Goans who move into a new home in places like Assagao sometimes get cynical congratulations from local associates for having `broken into’ an enclave of `outsiders’.
No wonder, national leaders from other states have sought to use Konkani slogans and even pepper their campaign speeches with a few Konkani phrases. The counting of votes in four weeks will show if that has been enough or whether Goans’ unease about newly arrived 'outsiders’ will get transposed to some of these parties.
(David Devadas is the author of 'The Story of Kashmir' and 'The Generation of Rage in Kashmir' (OUP, 2018). He can be reached at @david_devadas. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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