G7 Summit: Is the Russia-Ukraine War a Boon in Disguise for Zelenskyy?

Zelenskyy's ‘clean' image had taken a beating just before the war, when approval ratings dropped to 24.7%.

The G7 Joint Statement is a long, long document, so much so that it actually has an ‘Executive Summary’, quite unusual for something that is supposed to be a tight consensus document among states. That includes not just the rich ‘Seven’, but also the less fortunate leaders of Argentina, India, Indonesia, Senegal and South Africa, and, of course, Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit virtually on 27 June, the same day that Russia allegedly chose to use a missile to hit a shopping centre at Kremenchuk. It was condemned in a separate statement, which was short to the point of curtness.

• Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations met at Schloss Elmau from 26 June to 28 June. The joint statement is a long, long one, and the group pledged its support to Ukraine.

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the summit virtually on 27 June, the same day that Russia allegedly chose to use a missile to hit a shopping centre at Kremenchuk.

• Zelenskyy's image as a ‘clean alternative’ took a beating just before the war, when approval ratings dropped to 24.7 per cent last year.

• The war has come as a boon for Zelenskyy. His popularity has never been higher, as world leaders give standing ovations to his speeches and heap praises on Ukrainians for their undoubted courage.

Ukraine Wants an End

Onsite images seem to indicate that multiple Russian missiles seem to have struck, in fact, a Kredmash industrial plant in the area, and casualties such as a shopping mall are too often written off as ‘collateral damage’ when great powers fight. It is also yet another indication of the strong role of a disinformation campaign – by both sides, but which the US is definitely winning. That’s, of course, relative. The reality is that Ukrainians are dying as the West cheers them on.

Except that Zelenskyy seems to have had enough. It has been 125 days since the war started, and according to his reported address, he wants the war to end before winter. That’s unsurprising, given the winter temperatures of minus four and badly damaged infrastructure.

He also hinted at opening negotiations with Russia. That’s going to be difficult, given that it seems Moscow is now in control of large parts of the east, including Luhansk and Donetsk.

After the loud predictions of a Russian defeat, this can hardly be acknowledged for eventual negotiations. Impartial experts, such as Professor Mearsheimer, argue that the war could last years. That would be the end of Ukraine as it is now, a moderately prosperous country with a moderately decent way of life.

The Zelenskyy Option

Putin, no democratic leader, doesn’t care much if the war goes on through this winter, particularly since the economy is far from collapsing to western sanctions as the rouble gains strength. But Zelenskyy is an elected leader, and though elections are nowhere near – he finishes his term in 2024 – there is every chance that an irate public could throw him out if things get worse. He has gone through this before. His image as a ‘clean alternative’ took a beating just before the war, when approval ratings dropped to 24.7 per cent last year.

Observers point to a few main reasons. One, that he, admittedly together with other world leaders, was named in the Panama Papers, which revealed that the President and his coterie owned a network of offshore companies in the British Virgin Islands, Cyprus, and Belize, apart from expensive London real estate. That would have been bad for any leader, but for Zelenskyy, who was elected on a ‘clean’ image, it was suicide. A second aspect was his unceremonious ousting of Dmytro Razumkov, Speaker of the Parliament and one-time supporter, with the help of some of the very oligarchs whom he had ousted. A third reason could have been that Zelenskyy’s own democratic credentials were wearing thin at the edges. In February 2021, he was shutting down television stations of his opponents.

Facing the Reality, Finally

The truth of the matter is that the war has come as a boon for Zelenskyy. His popularity has never been higher, as world leaders give standing ovations to his speeches and heap praises on Ukrainians for their undoubted courage. But Zelenskyy is no fool. His repeated demands for air support, or at least air defences, have been rebuffed; the demand that Russia be declared a terrorist state is unrealistic, given that Russia sits in the UN Security Council. At the moment, the European Parliament’s grant of ‘candidate status’ has boosted his standing. But a realistic analysis indicates that this is no immediate prize, given that the offer to join Europe was first made in 2002.

Also, look closely at the Resolution. Even as the EU lauds itself for its own courage and statesmanship, it will not set aside strict accession criteria spanning the entire gamut of governance, none of which can be met even years after the war ends.

Not even negotiations for the new status are to begin anytime soon. But it’s a promise for the future for billions in aid. As Ukrainian refugees pour out into Europe, that aid is in the EU’s self-interest. It’s not an immediate solution – in fact, it may annoy Russia even more. But it is, at least, better than the ‘generous’ arms aid that comes from the US.

Climate Commitments as Europe Burns

Coming back to the G7, there is the Climate Statement that declares a commitment to “phasing down coal while increasing the share of renewable energies in the energy mix”. This is ironic, considering the Ukraine crisis that is fuelling an increase in coal usage in Europe itself. The Greek government has said it would boost coal mining and extend the operation of obsolete coal-fired power plants, even while it generates about 10 per cent of its power from lignite, the dirtiest form of coal. Other countries such as Germany and Prague are following the same route.

The prevailing mantra, reflected in the G7 statement, however, is that the Ukraine war is actually a blessing in disguise since it will push countries into alternative energy sources. That’s going to take years. Even present alternatives, such as solar power, have dangerous toxic waste implications; countries like India are already scaling up the ‘clean’ hydropower choice, which is an environmental disaster. So, no, the solution is not alternative energy, but to stop the war and start negotiating. There’s already a climate crisis ongoing.

The Promises on Debt

Then there is the long catechism on debt restructuring and “the deteriorating and highly challenging debt situations of many developing countries and emerging markets – with more than half of low-income countries in debt distress or at high risk of debt distress”.

Even as such long paragraphs are being drafted, another country is likely to go down the economic drain. Sri Lanka has suspended fuel supplies for two weeks as its economy slides further into bankruptcy. Pakistan’s inflation climbed 13.5 per cent on high fuel and food prices. India has had to add Rs 15,000 crore for fertilizer subsidies, which it can ill-afford. The next tranche could be much worse, possibly Rs 1.05 lakh crore, as the sowing season begins and supply-chain shortages bite in.

But all the G7 and others can talk about is that India’s buys help Russia evade sanctions. It’s a hugely bureaucratic and blinkered view, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s suggestion to prioritise millets (which need no fertilizer) should be heeded.

The worst? Even as the G7 announced impassioned support for Ukraine, Washington announced aid for the country to the tune of $40 billion. But that’s not all for the country. Some $19 billion is for its military support to Ukraine, $3.9 billion to sustain US forces deployed in Europe, $16 billion for economic support to Ukraine, and a wide variety of international programmes as well as $2 billion for long-term support to NATO allies and modernisation programmes.

America's Long-Term Plans

But here’s the catch. Experts note that unlike earlier aid programmes that were planned over a few weeks, this one covers a range of services, including training, equipment, and logistic support to be provided over the long run. It also includes replenishment of US weapons stocks to be sent in, again over the long-term. Simply put, Washington has no plans for the Ukrainians to negotiate their way out of this mess. It’s horrific.

That means Zelenskyy may be there for a long while as the war drags on and Washington extracts its pound of flesh from everyone concerned, not just those in Europe. As the rest of us tighten our belts, Zelenskyy can take heart in the fact that few wartime leaders have ever won an election in peace. Churchill was sent home after a successful World War, and our own Indira Gandhi faced disaster after 1971. War is no solution for leaders, and it's certainly hell for ordinary people – even those on whom it is imposed without even being asked. Ask Asia, which gets a cold every time Europe sneezes. It’s an absolute pandemic.

(Dr Tara Kartha is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). She tweets @kartha_tara. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)