In the intricate political landscape of West Bengal, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with a myriad of challenges that transcend the optics of recent initiatives such as the Insaaf Yatra and the Brigade Parade Ground rally.
As the party endeavors to shore up support in the run-up to the 2024 elections, a cloud of uncertainty looms over its future trajectory. The potential Mamata-Congress alliance casts a long shadow over the Left's prospects, introducing a complex conundrum for the CPI(M).
Reports of this alliance threaten to reshape the opposition dynamics, raising questions about the electoral viability of the Left-Congress collaboration and exacerbating the fractures within the broader anti-BJP coalition, especially the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.
Furthermore, the BJP's growing influence among former Left voters signals a discernible rightward shift, adding to the challenges faced by the CPI(M). A Congress-TMC partnership could nullify any potential gains for the Left-Congress alliance, consolidating the BJP's stronghold and complicating the Left's electoral arithmetic. Amidst these challenges, the Left discerns a potential opening within the discontent among Muslim voters towards Mamata.
However, the outcome hinges on the uncertain contours of a Congress-TMC alliance, where minority votes stand poised to play a pivotal role in determining the electoral fortunes. As the Bengal Left grapples with limited options and a potentially grim electoral outlook, the intricate dance between Mamata's dominance and the BJP's entrenched position leaves the CPI(M) in an uneasy position.
This editorial seeks to unravel the complexities surrounding the CPI(M)'s navigation through the currents of the Mamata-Congress confluence, exploring the nuanced dynamics that may either rejuvenate or further marginalize the Left in the shifting political sands of Bengal.
Optics of Strength, but an Uncertain Future
In a calculated demonstration of political vitality, the CPI(M) has held the Insaaf Yatra and the Brigade Parade Ground rally, ostensibly setting the stage for garnering support in the pivotal 2024 elections. These events, though visually impressive in mobilizing the masses, cast a delicate veil over profound apprehensions about the party's future trajectory.
On the surface, the meticulously planned gatherings appear as commendable endeavors to rekindle the ideological fervor of the Left in Bengal. Yet beneath this outward manifestation of strength lies a tapestry of intricate challenges demanding meticulous scrutiny.
The CPI(M), once a formidable force in the state's political theater, now grapples with a shifting landscape where traditional alliances waver and the very ground beneath the Left's feet becomes increasingly uncertain.
The paradox between the conspicuous mobilization and the concealed uncertainties necessitates a crucial examination of the CPI(M)'s strategic positioning. The uncertainty surrounding the party's electoral viability and resonance in the current political narrative hangs over its future. As the CPI(M) endeavors to rally its constituency, this column contends that the applause for the Insaaf Yatra and Brigade Parade Ground rally must be tempered with a judicious analysis of the profound challenges poised to shape the party's destiny in the unfolding political panorama.
The Congress' Conundrum
In the ever-evolving political landscape ahead of the 2024 elections, the CPI(M) is faced with a crucial decision as they navigate through a complex network of alliances and uncertainties. A potential collaboration between the Congress and the TMC looms over the political landscape, raising concerns.
Although the state leaders of the Congress publicly oppose aligning with the TMC, there are murmurs of uncertainty behind closed doors. Mamata Banerjee made a strong statement about a potential alliance, clearly stating the terms and offering Congress only two seats, which include Dakshin Malda and Baharampur.
Nevertheless, the CPI(M) strongly maintains its stance of not aligning with the TMC, highlighting the differences within the opposition. The Congress insiders reveal a delicate interplay between different factions, sparking speculation about a possible alignment between Mamata Banerjee and Sonia Gandhi. The CPI(M), aware of its limited impact in West Bengal, finds itself in a strategic dilemma. If Congress' attempts at building political strength succeed, the CPI(M) might find itself reluctantly forming an alliance.
Although the alliance may have consequences for the Bengal Congress unit, it presents a practical opportunity for Congress to gain a substantial number of seats in West Bengal, but the party will be entirely at the mercy of Mamata. Nevertheless, the CPI(M) finds itself in a precarious position, lacking representation in the state assembly, or Lok Sabha. It is merely an observer in the unfolding political drama, which hints at the complex power dynamics that will shape the future of Bengal's political scene.
Left to right Vote Shift
In the dramatic political landscape of West Bengal, the 2019 elections witnessed a seismic shift that confounded traditional alliances and redrew the electoral map. The intriguing and, to some, unexpected phenomenon was the discernible migration of votes from the CPI(M) to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
This shift, a profound transformation of political allegiance, marked a departure from the historical underpinnings of the Left's dominance in the state. No one less than the General Secretary of the CPI(M), Sitaram Yechury himself, reportedly admitted this shift.
Examining the electoral dynamics reveals a notable shift in voting patterns from the Left to the BJP. In the 2021 West Bengal and Assam elections, Mamata Banerjee's TMC secured approximately 48%, a surge from 45% in 2016. The CPI(M), aligning with the Congress and the Indian Secular Front in 2021, experienced a significant decline from 20% in 2016 to a mere 5%.
This marked a substantial 15% shift. Meanwhile, the BJP saw a rise from 10% in 2016 to 38% in 2021. Analytically, the BJP garnered support from dissatisfied CPI(M) and Congress voters, illustrating a nuanced redistribution of political allegiance.
The electoral landscape witnessed a metamorphosis, encapsulating the intricate dynamics of voter realignment in West Bengal. Now the war in front of the CPI(M) is that if they fight alone and an alliance between Congress and the TMC is formed, then they will be the biggest losers as the remaining vote share will also shift to the TMC.
Muslim Discontent, Potential Opportunity
With the BJP's ascendance in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's political fortunes rest heavily on the minority vote, constituting about 30% of the state's electorate. Historically, this demographic has been a stronghold for the Trinamool Congress (TMC). However, recent years have witnessed a surge in corruption allegations against the TMC and an increase in violence affecting various communities, including minorities. Consequently, discontent among Muslims towards Mamata has grown evident, with observable shifts in voting patterns during recent by-elections.
This discontent among Muslims not only signifies a challenge for Mamata but also offers a nuanced opportunity for the Left. Rooted in perceived neglect and unmet expectations, Muslim dissatisfaction could become a decisive factor. Yet, the Left's ability to capitalize on this sentiment depends intricately on the unfolding alliances. The potential Congress-TMC alliance holds sway, with its outcome shaping the trajectory of minority votes.
A successful alliance may consolidate Muslim support for Mamata, hindering the Left's prospects. Conversely, a misalignment in the Congress-TMC partnership could create a strategic opening, allowing the Left to emerge as a credible alternative. The complex interplay of minority discontent and political alliances creates a delicate and consequential terrain for the Left in Bengal.
The Insaaf Yatra and Brigade Parade Ground rally, while projecting strength, conceal deeper concerns about the party's future, symbolizing a critical juncture. The looming Mamata-Congress alliance poses a complex conundrum, endangering the I.N.D.I.A bloc and sowing doubts about the CPI(M)'s electoral standing.
The BJP's rightward shift among former Left voters adds another layer of complexity, while Muslim discontent towards Mamata presents a potential opening for the Left. As the Left grapples with limited options and a potentially grim electoral outlook, the intricate dance of alliances becomes pivotal. A Congress-TMC partnership could leave the CPI(M) marginalized between a dominant Mamata and an entrenched BJP. This editorial dissects the nuanced dynamics shaping the Left's trajectory in Bengal, urging strategic recalibration amidst uncertain shores.
[The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a columnist (He tweets at @sayantan_gh.) This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.]
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)