(In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, three states will see bipolar contests between the Congress and BJP – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. The recent political moves in MP by Congress leaders Kamal Nath and Priyanka Gandhi appear to be aimed at 'appeasing' the Hindu vote, triggering a debate around the utility and practicality of 'soft Hindutva' as a campaign strategy. This article argues that such tactics will not only not help the party but also prove to be detrimental in the long run. Read the opposing arguments here.)
Temple hopping and photo ops with a variety of Hindu spiritual leaders have become an ingrained routine for politicians, particularly in election bond states. Not surprisingly, soon after Priyanka Vadra released the five promises made by the Congress to the voters of Madhya Pradesh, she went to the revered Mahakal shrine in Ujjain.
Former chief minister Kamal Nath who aspires to recapture the chair from Shiv Raj Singh Chauhan too has been hobnobbing with priests and promising to free all temples of the state from government control if he is voted back to power. This Congress waltz with soft Hindutva is a recent phenomenon. The “legendary” AK Anthony report post the 2014 Lok Sabha debacle reportedly says that the average Hindu voter had started perceiving the Congress to be a “Muslim” party.
Since then, the invocation of “Janeudhari” Hindu heritage has become the leitmotif for Congress leaders desperate to stop the BJP juggernaut. Many Congress leaders want the party to pitch this soft Hindutva even more aggressively during the forthcoming election campaign in Madhya Pradesh.
Yet, electoral data and a healthy dose of common sense suggest the Congress doesn’t really need Hindu "appeasement” to win Madhya Pradesh. Rather, it could drive away the Muslim voters in other states where they have a viable option in a regional family-run party.
Congress' Record in Post-2014 State Elections
Look at the state elections that the Congress won in the aftermath of 2014. It won Punjab handsomely under Captain Amarinder Singh in 2017. Hindutva anyway has no role in the politics of Punjab.
It won Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan in late 2018. No matter what spin some analysts give, Hindutva or its so-called softer version had hardly any role to play. In Chhattisgarh, 15 years of anti-incumbency against the BJP government gave the Congress a thumping victory. The Congress gained 2.7% of the vote share, but the BJP vote share plummeted by more than 8%. Rajasthan, like Karnataka and Himachal, changes governments every five years. In any case, the Congress vote share was just 1% more than that of the BJP.
In Madhya Pradesh, the vote share of both parties was virtually identical at 41.3%, according to revised Election Commission data. Anti-incumbency and local bread-and-butter issues played a much larger role in these three elections than any version of Hindutva.
Post 2019, the Congress won Himachal Pradesh in late 2022 and Karnataka in May 2023. Again, it was bread and butter local issues that dominated. In Himachal, the Congress' promise of restoring the old pension scheme found resonance with voters.
In Karnataka, it was corruption charges against the ruling BJP regime and the promise of "freebies” that did the trick. In fact, the Congress campaign in Karnataka promised to ban the Bajrang Dal; not a soft Hindutva approach by any yardstick.
How Muslims Have Voted for the Congress
Let’s look at the voting record of Muslims in the last three decades or so. In bipolar contests with the BJP, they vote overwhelmingly for the Congress. In other contests, where regional parties are powerful, their vote has gone to them rather than the Congress.
The Muslim voter, like other Indian voters, is not a fool. They tend to vote for a party or candidate best positioned to defeat the BJP or its allies.
The Aurangabad Lok Sabha seat results in 2019 are a classic example. The Congress has become so weak there that it came fourth. The victor was Imtiyaz Jaleel of AIMIM who won against the Shiv Sena candidate by a wafer-thin margin of about 4000 votes: courtesy of the Muslims voting lock, stock, and barrel for him. To that extent, the JD(S) in Karnataka has been getting a lot of Muslim votes. There, the anti-Hindutva stand of the Congress paid off as the promise to ban the Bajrang Dal resonated with the Muslim voter.
In Madhya Pradesh, to be brutally frank, the Muslim voter knows it is Congress, not the likes of AIMIM that is best positioned to beat the BJP. So why needlessly alienate them by adopting a soft Hindutva electoral stand?
Congress Does Not Need to Copy the BJP
Look at the chart and it becomes clear that both the BJP and Congress have complete control over about 35% of core supporters. Hobnobbing with Hindu spiritual leaders is not going to change that fact. Many analysts forget that the Sangh Parivar has been a formidable force in the state since the 1960s.
In the aftermath of the Emergency, the Janata Party government in Madhya Pradesh was a de facto Jan Sangh government. Yet, support for the Congress has remained stable. Going back a little in time to 1993, assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh were held a few months after the Babri Masjid was demolished. Hindutva fervour was at its peak. Yet, the Congress (40.7% vote share) defeated the BJP (38.9% vote share) and formed the government. Party leaders need to take lessons from that election before needlessly flirting with Hindutva.
The only time the Congress vote share has dipped below 35% in the last 30 years was in 2003 when it was decimated and its vote share crashed to less than 32%. Again, Hindutva had no role to play. It was massive anti-incumbency against the chief minister Digvijay Singh. The massive loss of 2013 (36.8% vote share) did see the role of Hindutva.
The frequent statements of Digvijay Singh talking about “saffron terror” and his hobnobbing with people who called 26/11 an RSS conspiracy had deeply angered voters of the state. Sadhvi Pragya, who humiliated Digvijay Singh in 2019 in Bhopal (victory margin of 3,65,000 and a huge 26% vote share gap) belong to MP.
The author thinks it would be political suicide for the Congress if leaders like Digvijay Singh again start talking about saffron terror. At the same, there is no need for the party to swing the other way and become a copy of the BJP. Anti-incumbency favours the Congress and even a small increase in vote share compared to 2018 will ensure Kamal Nath is back as chief minister.
(Sutanu Guru is the Executive Director of the CVoter Foundation. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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