Biden’s Quad Great Game: ‘Manage’ Differences, Focus On One Threat – China

Biden's goal for Quad is simple – become an effective and balancing coalition against China.

With four meetings in less than two years, the Quad has come a long way in a short time. The agenda is substantive and growing with an eye to bringing tangible benefits to the Indo-Pacific region while countering Chinese influence.

Quad’s driving philosophy seems to be realism and its methodology is pragmatism. Differences are managed or ignored while member countries try to focus on their primary objective – to become an effective and balancing coalition against China.

The fourth and latest Quad summit of India, the US, Australia and Japan, concluded in Tokyo with a lengthy joint statement. The leaders emphasised their support for rule of law, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, peaceful settlement of disputes and their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. They called the Quad “a force for good” as they unveiled two new initiatives, one in the maritime domain and the other in the economic realm.

• Within Quad, differences are being managed or ignored while member countries try to focus on their primary objective – to become an effective coalition against China.

• US policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan in the event of a Chinese transgression has grown less ambiguous in recent times. Though rolled back later, this was the third time Biden said he would come to Taiwan’s defence.

• The joint statement's awkward phrasing on Russia was a concession to India, but both Biden and Kishida used blistering language against Russia in their individual public statements.

US Intentions On Backing Taiwan Are Becoming Clear

Although China was not mentioned by name, as per Quad’s unwritten rules, much of the joint statement was code for Beijing’s aggressive and coercive behaviour. As if to prove the point, China and Russia sent warplanes close to Japanese airspace as US President Joe Biden was meeting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The show of strength was a direct response to Biden’s statement that he would be willing to use force if China invaded Taiwan.

Although US officials walked back on Biden’s statement, as they have in the past, US policy of “strategic ambiguity” has grown less ambiguous in recent times. This was the third time Biden said or implied that he would come to Taiwan’s defence, which means it can no longer be treated as a gaffe. If China attacks Taiwan, it’s indeed difficult to imagine that the US would be a bystander.

The Chinese and Russian “air show” was not an auspicious start to the Quad summit, but it was a sign of the increasingly turbulent times world leaders must navigate as multiple crises meld into each other, one reinforcing the other. The four democracies of the Quad are trying to chart a clear course that values cooperation over coercion to bring Southeast Asian nations along.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who was just hours-old in the job, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, joined Biden and Kishida to put up a united front in public while thrashing out their differences in private.

Since the summit was held against the background of Russia’s war against Ukraine, India’s refusal to directly condemn Moscow presented a measure of difficulty, but nothing that words couldn’t paper over.

How US Ignored Differences Over Stance on Russia

The joint statement didn’t mention Russia but talked of Quad leaders standing “steadfast” in the face of “unilateral actions among states and a tragic conflict raging in Ukraine”. The awkward phrasing was a concession to India, but both Biden and Kishida used blistering language against Russia in their individual public statements delivered before the closed-door session.

Biden went into detail about Russia’s “brutal and unprovoked war” using the bulk of his statement to describe the killing of civilians and how Russian President Vladimir Putin was “trying to extinguish a culture” by bombing churches and museums.

Kishida framed the Ukraine war in terms of the oft-repeated Quad principle – the importance of a rules-based international order. Russia had “fundamentally” shaken it. “We should never, ever allow a similar incident to happen in the Indo-Pacific.”

While Modi must agree with the sentiment, he chose not to mention Russia or the war and neither did Albanese. Instead, the Indian Prime Minister made a short, bureaucratic statement listing Quad’s achievements.

Albanese used the summit to establish his Quad credentials as it were and quash doubts that Australia under the new Prime minister may rethink its China policy. “We are committed to the Quad,” the Labour Party leader declared.

That said, the four members unveiled an array of initiatives, including a commitment to extending $50 billion in infrastructure assistance and investment in countries of the region. But the flagship announcement was about the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework described as “the most significant international economic engagement” undertaken in the region by Washington. So far, 13 countries, including India, have agreed to join the IPEF to try to set new rules for trade and commerce and loosen China’s grip on the region.

Biden Wants to Build Strong Bonds 

The IPEF means that the US entry into the rebranded Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP is out of the question, since both Democrats and Republicans are opposed to its expansive agenda.

The IPEF is seen as more palatable to US domestic audiences, labour unions and progressives – it makes no promises to give more access to the US market, at least for now. It has a pick-your-own-bucket quality, where countries can choose which of the four areas they want to pursue – secure supply chains, clean energy, fighting corruption or digital trade. This flexibility is a plus for India.

The other big achievement of the Quad summit was the new Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness, in which many countries in the region had apparently expressed great interest. The IPMDA will help countries with information on what’s happening in their territorial waters and in their exclusive economic zones, be it illegal fishing or ships with illegal wares passing in the dark of night.

Quad partners will coordinate across three critical regions – the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean – to help deliver data, which will be unclassified, and help a wide range of countries.

So far, the Quad has moved at a good speed, offering new areas for partnership and building bonds to bring public goods to the Indo-Pacific region. There are no debt traps and power plays.

(Seema Sirohi is a senior Washington-based journalist. She can be reached at @seemasirohi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)