The Enforcement Directorate’s (ED) move to arrest Arvind Kejriwal amidst the crescendo of Lok Sabha election announcements is not just a mere misstep by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) —it’s a veritable gambit gone awry. This miscalculation transcends the mere prospect of garnering sympathy for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP); it delves deep into the intricate dance of electoral dynamics, particularly within the pulsating heart of Delhi.
The BJP may find transient solace in Kejriwal’s detainment, yet it’s crucial to recognise that Kejriwal won't go the Hemant Soren way. His resolve is ironclad, and his spirit is indomitable. He will not yield before the might of the ED or the central government. Instead, he is poised to mount a formidable counteroffensive, rallying his forces from the bustling streets of Delhi to the verdant fields of Punjab, both in spirit and through the avenues of law.
Unlike the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Kejriwal and the AAP are set to wield this arrest as a potent catalyst, galvanising not just their steadfast supporters but also the crucial floating voters—those who oscillate in their allegiance between the BJP and AAP from one election to the next.
While the BJP may seize this moment to sculpt a narrative of corruption, aiming to ensnare the AAP in its snare, the scales of public discourse may very well tip in favour of Kejriwal. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections will test the BJP’s hypothesis: that incarcerating Kejriwal will serve as a decisive blow to their rivals. Yet, such a belief underestimates the resilience and strategic acumen of Kejriwal’s brand of politics.
He is set to rebound with a vigour that the BJP may not have anticipated, turning the tables in a display of political acrobatics that could redefine the battleground. Kejriwal’s arrest, rather than cowing the AAP, may instead forge an electoral crucible, uniting disparate forces and solidifying a front that could challenge the BJP’s narrative like never before. The stage is set, the players are ready, and the game of thrones continues unabated.
BJP's Tactical Blunder: Underestimating AAP's Strengths
The BJP’s manoeuvre to arrest Arvind Kejriwal in the midst of election fervour is not merely a misjudgment—it’s a profound underestimation of AAP's resilience and the magnetic pull of Kejriwal’s leadership.
Born from the embers of the India Against Corruption movement, AAP stands as a beacon for those wearied by the old guard’s political machinations. It’s a party that resonates with the common man’s yearning for integrity, a stark contrast to the entrenched narratives of parties like the JMM or Congress.
Kejriwal is not just an administrator; he is the embodiment of a rebellious spirit, a maverick with the tenacity of a street fighter. His unorthodox political tactics have not only won him admiration but have also cemented his place in the hearts of the masses. AAP’s agility in navigating the political landscape, unencumbered by rigid ideologies or historical burdens, positions it as a formidable adversary. This flexibility is AAP’s ace, enabling it to rally support across a broad spectrum of society.
The BJP now faces the herculean task of countering the AAP's narrative, especially in the aftermath of Kejriwal’s arrest. AAP’s strategy, centred around this event, crafts a compelling emotional narrative that could deeply resonate with the electorate.
While the BJP may cast AAP in the light of corruption, Kejriwal’s arrest provides AAP with a golden opportunity to harness the power of emotional messaging—a domain where Kejriwal’s charisma shines. This emotional resonance has the potential to tip the scales of public opinion and redefine the narrative in AAP’s favour.
Ultimately, the BJP’s reductive portrayal of the AAP as corrupt fails to account for the nuanced emotional connection and strategic savvy that Kejriwal brings to the table. As the political saga unfolds, underestimating the tenacity and appeal of the AAP could be a pivotal oversight for the BJP, one that may well redefine the contours of the upcoming electoral battle.
Harnessing Floating Votes: AAP's Path to Consolidation
The political landscape of Delhi bears witness to a fascinating phenomenon: the coexistence of two formidable leaders, Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi, rising concurrently in their respective domains. The juxtaposition of their political trajectories underscores the unique voting behaviour of Delhiites, oscillating between the AAP and the BJP depending on the electoral arena.
Delhi's electorate has displayed a distinct pattern: endorsing AAP and Kejriwal in assembly elections while leaning towards Modi's BJP in Lok Sabha polls. This nuanced duality illuminates the potential for a seismic shift in political allegiance, especially in the wake of Kejriwal's recent arrest just before the Lok Sabha elections.
The convergence of circumstances presents an opportune moment for AAP to harness this floating vote segment. With a targeted approach and a compelling emotional appeal, AAP can galvanise the electorate across Delhi, transcending traditional party lines and consolidating the floating votes into its fold.
The electoral data reveals intriguing shifts in voter preferences over the years. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured 46.40% of the votes, while the AAP garnered 33% and Congress obtained 15.10%. Contrastingly, in the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, AAP surged ahead with 54.3% support, compared to the BJP's 32.3% and Congress's 9.7%. The trend continued in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, witnessing the BJP's rise to 56.86%, while the AAP garnered 22.51% and Congress 18.11%. Notably, the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections saw the AAP maintain dominance with 53.57% support, with the BJP at 38.51%.
Analysing the electoral data further solidifies this narrative. Over the years, a significant section of voters has exhibited a propensity to pivot between Kejriwal's AAP and Modi's BJP, with fluctuations evident in vote shares across Lok Sabha and assembly elections. This fluidity in voting behaviour, amounting to approximately 15-20% of the electorate, represents a formidable force that AAP can potentially consolidate in its favour.
Furthermore, the strategic alliance between AAP and Congress adds another layer of advantage, as the combined vote share of these parties is poised to rival, if not surpass, that of the BJP. This numerical advantage compounds the challenges for the saffron party, placing it at a disadvantage in the upcoming electoral battles.
In essence, AAP's ability to capitalise on this opportune moment, mobilise the floating votes through targeted messaging, and leverage its alliance strengths could redefine the political landscape of Delhi and potentially pave the way for a decisive electoral victory.
Solidification of AAP-Congress Ties
As the 2024 general elections approach, a remarkable political confluence unfolds, with the Congress and AAP forming an alliance, a union that speaks volumes in the annals of Indian politics. This coalition is not merely a partnership; it is a strategic masterstroke that could redefine the electoral landscape of Delhi and Punjab, where the AAP’s meteoric rise once eroded the Congress’s stronghold.
The genesis of AAP, rooted in the India Against Corruption movement, was a clarion call against the alleged misdeeds of the then-ruling Congress. Yet, in a twist of fate, it is Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and AAP’s torchbearer, Arvind Kejriwal, who have crafted this alliance, an alliance that may be cemented further by Kejriwal’s recent arrest.
The data speaks a clear language: United, AAP, and Congress could present a formidable challenge to the BJP in Delhi. However, beneath the surface, there lies a current of discontent within the Congress ranks, particularly among the state units opposed to this alliance. But Kejriwal’s arrest by the Enforcement Directorate has sparked a newfound realisation within the Congress—a golden opportunity to galvanise their cadre across both parties.
In a significant gesture, Sandeep Dikshit, a senior Congress leader and son of the late Sheila Dikshit, who was once a vocal critic of Kejriwal and opposed to the alliance, was seen rushing to Kejriwal’s residence during the ED raid. This act, coupled with the presence of other senior leaders like Arvinder Singh Lovely, President of the Delhi Pradesh Congress, signalled a message of unity. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is also all set to meet Kejriwal's family today. Kejriwal and Gandhi have always been bitter rivals, so the message of unity is very clear.
The arrest of Arvind Kejriwal may well serve as a catalyst, quelling internal dissent within the Congress and rallying the local leadership and cadre around the alliance. This newfound solidarity could prove advantageous for the coalition in Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, and beyond, potentially ushering in a new era of political dynamics that could shift the balance of power in the upcoming elections. The stage is set, and the implications of this alliance will be watched closely as the nation marches towards a pivotal electoral showdown.
[The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a columnist (He tweets at @sayantan_gh.) This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.]
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