Troops, Talks & Cyber Attacks: What's Happening in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis?

Would credible deterrence from the US and NATO stop Russia from further acting on its Ukrainian agenda?

All still isn't quiet on the eastern front in Europe.

The United States said on Saturday, 12 February, that it was ordering most of its diplomatic staff at its embassy in Kyiv to leave Ukraine immediately, following the intel that an invasion could happen anytime.

Tensions have been on the rise for weeks during the Russian military buildup near its ex-Soviet neighbour. Moscow has warned that there will be "the most unpredictable and grave consequences" for Europe if its demands aren't met.

The demand that Russia is talking about is that the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies provide a guarantee that NATO will not expand eastwards to embrace Ukraine into its fold.

Both the US and NATO have categorically refused to provide such a guarantee. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said during a White House press briefing in December last year that "NATO member countries decide who is a member of NATO, not Russia."

Around a 1,00,000 troops have been deployed at the Russo-Ukrainian border in a crisis that has seen quite a few developments in the last few weeks alone.

Here's all that has happened recently.

US Intel on Russian Invasion 

The latest developments started last year in early December.

A US intelligence report about the Kremlin planning a multi-front offensive as soon as 2022 involving up to 1,75,000 troops sent alarm bells ringing in Ukraine, NATO, and the US itself.

The intel documents were obtained by the Washington Post, and an article on them was published on 3 December 2021.

It's not as if there were no signs of a military build-up before the report.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had claimed on 13 November that that Russia has already gathered 1,00,000 troops around the border region.

On the other hand, Russia had accused Ukraine of sending half its troops to Donbas to tackle pro-Russian separatists.

Along with the US intel, however, came an assurance from the Biden administration itself, that it will do whatever it takes to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression.

Biden Assures Eastern Europe of Assistance 

One week after the intel report was made public by the Washington Post, US President Joe Biden called the heads of state of Ukraine and nine other eastern European countries (who are also NATO members) and assured them full support from the US in case of a Russian attack on the region.

He spoke to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky for around 90 minutes after he which spent quite some talking to his counterparts in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

They are all NATO members, which joined the alliance after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

After the phone call, leaders of Eastern European countries expressed their confidence and anger regarding Russia's hostility towards the region.

For instance, after the phone call with Biden, the Estonian prime minister gave a statement with all guns blazing.

"Russia must not be given any say in how NATO organises the defence of its territory or in who can join the military alliance. What is most alarming is Russia’s desire to turn Europe into spheres of influence," Kaja Kallas said.

Talks Between NATO and Russia  

One way to prevent a war is credible deterrence. Another way is diplomacy.

Talks between NATO and Russia ended last week on 12 January, but the outcome was neither definitive nor positive.

On one hand, Russia said that the negotiations with the United States and NATO were "unsuccessful" due to fundamental differences between them in certain core issues.

Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, said that Moscow wanted concrete results, while Alexander Grushko, the deputy foreign minister, said that Russia may take military action if its political demands were not met.

On the other hand, Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO warned of "a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe."

While he mentioned that the meeting between NATO allies and Russia was important because it was the first meeting they had had in two years, Stoltenberg also warned the Russians (in an interview to Deutsche Welle) that they had "a choice to either engage in dialogue with NATO and Western allies or choose confrontation."

He even went on to remind Russia that NATO "will provide support to Ukraine to enable them to strengthen their ability to defend themselves."

The Russian Threat in Latin America 

It's unlike the Russians to just swallow up a threat from their western rivals.

After the conclusion of the aforementioned talks between Russia and NATO, the former's deputy foreign minister said Russia could deploy military personnel to Cuba and Venezuela if tensions with the US and with NATO continued to persist, The Associated Press reported.

In exchanges that were reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 that, if not resolved, would have led to a nuclear catastrophe, Ryabkov said that he could "neither confirm nor exclude" the possibility of Russian troops in Latin America because "it all depends on the action by our US counterparts."

The US responded by saying that "if Russia actually started moving in that direction, we would deal with it decisively," NY Post reported.

When Putin was first elected as the president of Russia in the year 2000, he shut down a Soviet-built military facility in Cuba in his bid to have friendlier relations with the US.

In recent years, however, Moscow and Havana have signed multiple military contracts.

Putin has also shown support for the socialist President, Nicolas Maduro, when in 2018 Russia sent its Tu-160 bombers to Venezuela.

Ryabkov himself has compared the current crisis over Ukraine to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The crisis that occurred just less than 60 years ago was peacefully resolved by President Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

Can this one, with Biden and Putin at the centre of it all, be resolved without shots fired?

Cyber Attack in Ukraine 

The most recent development in the ongoing crisis saw a shocking cyber attack launched on the Ukrainian government's websites on the night of Thursday, 13 January, with the message, "be afraid and expect the worst."

The cyberattack affected 70 websites including the ministry of foreign affairs, the cabinet of ministers, and the security and defence council.

A warning was displayed on the hacked websites in three languages – Ukrainian, Russian and Polish – with the message: "Ukrainian! All your personal data was uploaded to the public network. All data on the computer is destroyed, it is impossible to restore it. All information about you has become public, be afraid and expect the worst. This is for your past, present and future."

A probe was launched, which has now concluded that Russia was behind Friday's cyber attack.

"All the evidence points to Russia being behind the cyber-attack. Moscow is continuing to wage a hybrid war", the Ukrainian digital transformation ministry said in a statement on Sunday, 16 January.

Russia has denied any such role.

Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told CNN that Russia has "nothing to do with it."

"Ukrainians are blaming everything on Russia, even their bad weather in their country."

If Russia was indeed behind the attack, it wouldn't be the first time.

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, the Georgian government's websites were forced offline, the BBC reported.

Additionally, when Crimea was annexed from Ukraine by Russia in 2014, experts accused Putin's regime of conducting cyber attacks in the region to bring down communications and spread chaos while Russian troops advanced.

Regardless of whether Putin was behind the cyberattack or not, it has done the job of escalating tensions even further.

It is, after all, not everyday one wakes up to their government's websites containing threatening messages about expecting the worst about their country's existence.

While war hasn't broken out yet, it seems more inevitable now than ever.

Would credible deterrence and a show of strength from the US and NATO stop Russia from further acting on its Ukrainian agenda? Or has Putin made up his mind?

The day on which we find out is not too far away, it seems.

(With inputs from AP, The Guardian, BBC, FT, NY Post, and The Washington Post)