Bangladesh Elections: The Major Issues at Play – and What's at Stake for India

Sheikh Hasina is set to face the greatest challenge to her democratic credentials in the 2024 Bangladesh elections.

"Sheikh Hasina is a complex character: She emerged from her father’s shadow wanting to develop Bangladesh’s democracy, but now she is slowly dismantling it," Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington DC, told The Quint.

Hasina, the longest-serving premier of Bangladesh, is facing perhaps the greatest challenge to her democratic credentials in her over 40-year-long political career.

The general election in the country, slated for Sunday, 7 January, is all but decided in her favour. But whether the result will receive legitimacy is an entirely different discussion.

A One-Sided, Contentious Affair

It was in April 1991 when Bangladesh was struck by a devastating cyclone. Hasina was in the Opposition but was among the first leaders to reach the impacted areas near Chittagong – even before the ruling BNP could come up with a response to the tragedy.

Visuals showing her walking amid the devastation and catering to those in need portrayed her as a woman of and for the people.

The air of simplicity that contributed to her reputation and sustained itself over the years, and public sympathy emanating out of several attacks against her, saw Hasina achieve her first term in office in 1996.

That was then.

In the run-up to the 2024 elections, Hasina's party has been charged with authoritarianism in the form of rigging and coming down heavily on different forms of dissent.

The main Opposition party, the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has boycotted the polls, alleging the overriding of basic democratic practises. The BNP's demand for elections to be held under a caretaker government was also rejected by the Awami League on the ground that that provision in the Constitution was removed.

Furthermore, Zia – Hasina's main opponent – is ailing and under house arrest after being charged in two corruption cases.

"It’s hard for any election to be considered credible if the main opposition isn’t participating. In this case, the concerns about a non-credible election extend to the factors that prompted the BNP to sit it out. These include, in particular, harsh crackdowns that left most top leaders in jail," Kugelman told The Quint.

To lend an air of legitimacy to the election, the Awami League has reportedly asked several candidates to run as independent contenders – or as critics say, 'dummy' candidates – to make it look like a level-playing field.

The one relatively strong party contesting against the Awami League is the centre-right Jatiya Party (Ershad).

The Awami League's hope to provide a semblance of a 'fair election' also relies on the voter turnout. The party feels that the more the number of people coming out to vote, the more credible its win will be.

For this, it has been making several provisions – many of them allegedly undue. For instance, there are allegations against the ruling party that it has been threatening to strip people of the state's social benefits if they do not cast their ballots. (According to Bangladesh's Finance Ministry data, around 13 million people belonging to the lowest rungs of society are direct beneficiaries of the government's welfare schemes.)

Put simply, the Awami League is doing everything in its power to ensure that its 76-year-old leader secures a credible fourth consecutive and fifth overall term as prime minister.

What's At Stake For India

It is no secret that the Narendra Modi government wants Hasina in control of Bangladesh's reigns. The Ministry of External Affairs also refused to comment on the Bangladesh elections, saying that the latter's domestic affairs are none of New Delhi's business.

Ever since her first term in 1996, Hasina has forged close ties with India and has consistently maintained her stance over the years. India has also been supportive of greater bonhomie with successive Hasina governments, leading to the BNP accusing New Delhi of bias.

"It shouldn't surprise one if India prefers Hasina as a preferable partner to work with," ORF Associate Fellow and South Asia expert Aditya Shivamurthy told The Quint. "Her administration has shown a robust need to promote connectivity and infrastructure, limited cross-border terrorism, and mastered the art of balancing in which India does not necessarily have to be antagonised."

The Awami League has time and again acted against ethnic insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh to harm the interests of India's northeastern states. As opposed to the BNP, which has been accused of nurturing hardline Islamists which are critical of many of India's policies and accuse the Modi government of acting against the interests of Muslims.

India fears that the return of the BNP and its partner the Jamaat-e-Islami could create a safe harbour for hardliners and separatist forces like the United Liberation Front of Asom, as it happened when the coalition assumed power between 2001 and 2006.

"There are also ideological convergences between the Awami League and BJP, and between Hasina and Modi. These revolve around taking strong stands against dissent, upholding robust tough-on-terror positions, and showing little receptivity to political Islam."

Michael Kugelman

However, this does not imply that the relationship is on perfectly sure footing. One of the major thorns in the ties is the influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants into West Bengal and Assam, and the BJP's response to it. In 2019, the then BJP chief Amit Shah had referred to illegal Bangladeshi immigrants as "termites", leading to backlash from several Awami League leaders.

The alleged maltreatment of Muslims by right-wing groups in India also has a counter effect in Bangladesh, where anger is vented out against Hindus – which comprise a meagre 8 percent of the country's population.

"Hasina’s return will cement a strengthening India-Bangladesh relationship, but her return could also pose a few challenges for bilateral ties," Kugelman told The Quint.

"Notably, her close ties to India could harden anti-India sentiment within the Bangladesh public. Many in Bangladesh are already uncomfortable with many BJP policies. Hasina’s attachment to Modi will not go down well with those that want Bangladesh to distance itself from Modi’s Hindu nationalism."

Why China and the US Are Watching Bangladesh Closely

Of late, China is emerging as an important partner of Dhaka, having bankrolled a slew of infrastructure projects in the country. Hence, Hasina will have to walk a tightrope between both India and China – neither of which she can afford to alienate. You can read more on that here:

Another major player in the politics of South Asia is the United States, which has made no qualms about its disaffection over the alleged 'undemocratic' processes espoused by the Awami League ahead of the election.

In May last year, the US had announced visa restrictions on people attempting to disrupt the Bangladeshi general elections. Several western countries have further called for imposing sanctions against Bangladesh over alleged human rights violations and extra-judicial killings.

However, India may be able to reign in the US from acting too harshly if and when a Hasina government retains power. This is because a dressing-down from the US may push Dhaka deeper into China's camp – something neither India nor the US can let happen.

"If the US clamps down too hard, Dhaka will find new markets and areas of cooperation with others like China. This, in itself, will be a challenge for India," Shivamurthy told The Quint.

Furthermore, economic considerations may themselves deter the US from acting too harshly against Bangladesh. Given that the US is the top destination for all Bangladeshi exports, slapping sanctions could hit the country hard – especially amid worsening inflation and debt, according to Kugelman.

The State of Bangladesh's Economy

Finally, the economic problems facing Bangladesh are here to stay – at least for now.

This is not to take away from the fact that progress has been made across economic parameters during Hasina's rule. Industrialisation, development projects, girls' education, and electricity generation have taken centre stage in the Awami League's campaign for reelection.

Hasina has also boasted of the country's fast-growing garment industry and a slew of other infrastructural projects, including the Dhaka metro and the construction in 2021 of the Padma Bridge – which is the longest in the country.

However, all is not as well as it seems. For instance, the implications of the economic slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are still far from over.

The country faced one of its largest labour protests in October last year, when the workers of its ready-made garment (RMG) sector demanded the tripling of minimum wages from 8,000 Bangladeshi Taka.

The government has also failed to control the price hike of essential commodities and vegetables – which have the most devastating impact on the poorest families in Bangladesh. Amid the economic burden, several children were reportedly forced to drop out of school and child marriages saw an uptick, the Dhaka-based New Age newspaper reported.

"Hasina stakes her claim as a successful leader on Bangladesh’s economic growth story, but she neglects looming economic problems like refusing to better diversify an export portfolio dominated by garments and textiles. She seeks trade partnerships with the West even as she rails against it," Kugelman told The Quint.

"This is why Hasina is so divisive, and Bangladesh’s poisonous political polarisation makes her even more so. So, it’s not surprising that some see her as the best Bangladesh can offer, while others see her as the worst possible premier."

Michael Kugelman