As Rajasthan Elections Draw Close, BJP Stares at the 'Vasundhara Raje Puzzle'

BJP's reluctance to declare Vasundhara Raje as the CM face has specifically led to trouble within its state unit.

'Factionalism' is the word of the season in Rajasthan as the 2023 Assembly elections, likely to be held in December, draw close.

While the Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot feud in Congress is not news for those familiar with the state's politics, it is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is finding it difficult to deal with the many 'intra-party rival camps' which have emerged ahead of the polls. These camps are led by party heavyweights such as Vasundhara Raje, Rajendra Singh Rathore, Satish Pooniya, CP Joshi, Gajendra Shekhawat, Arjun Ram Meghwal, and Om Birla among others.

BJP's reluctance to declare Raje, a two-time former Chief Minister, as the face of the party's campaign has specifically led to trouble within its state unit.

It is clear that in line with BJP's policy in Opposition ruled states, the party is not willing to declare a CM face in Rajasthan. In fact, Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a rally in Jaipur, on 25 September, minced no words and said, "I want to tell every BJP worker that our identity and pride is only the lotus."

The Quint has also learnt that BJP is also planning to field Union Ministers such as Arjun Ram Meghwal, Ashwini Vaishnaw, and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in the polls, much like the strategy in Madhya Pradesh.

The high command also recently shot down Raje's request for a 'veto power' in the process of fielding candidates on all 200 seats in the state.

"The cadre on ground is confused. While it's true that it's the party's policy to not announce CM face in states where the Opposition is in power, madam's (Vasundhara Raje) constant sidelining has impacted the spirit of party workers across the state. Come to Rajasthan and you won't be able to tell that the BJP is in election mode," a source close to Raje told The Quint.

Despite these setbacks, the induction of Raje-loyalist Devi Singh Bhati to party fold after a gap of five years, after a slew of meetings with senior leaders, brought some hope for the supporters of the former CM.

This article primarily seeks to answer two key questions: what is behind the BJP's reluctance to bet on Raje as its CM face and what it means for the senior BJP leader's political future.

The Reluctance

Elections in Rajasthan follow a 'revolving door' model since 1993, which means that each time the state goes to polls, the incumbent government loses. Going by this trend, many predict that the BJP will come to power in Rajasthan — with or without Raje.

In such a situation, not declaring her the CM face helps the party follow the tradition of contesting elections in Opposition-ruled states under the name of PM Modi.

An ABP-C Voter survey done in July 2023 confirms the trend. As per the survey, the BJP is set for a comfortable victory in the state and is likely to win 109-119 seats in the 200 seat state Assembly.

The same survey also predicted that while 36 percent of BJP supporters want to see Raje as the CM face, 33 percent want a fresh face for the job. Interestingly, they also weren't too keen on Raje's competitors such as Gajendra Shekhawat and Rajendra Rathore for the top post.

"Vasundhara ji is no pushover like Basavaraj Bommai or leaders in Gujarat who are happy with the party's 'no repeat' model. She is a mass leader and knows how to get her due," said a source familiar with developments regarding ticket distribution.

A former BJP leader in the state, on the condition of anonymity, said, "It is no secret that Vasundhara ji never had cordial relationships with the Sangh (RSS) and the BJP high command. The result of which can be seen now."

Also, the 'camaraderie' between Raje and current CM Ashok Gehlot and widespread claims of a 'backdoor deal' between the two do not work in Raje's favour within the party.

In 2020, Gehlot publicly thanked Raje for not working along with the central leadership to topple his government. "Vasundhara Raje and Kailash Meghwal helped me to save my government as they did not support toppling by the BJP government," he said, while addressing a gathering at Dholpur, Raje's stronghold.

On the other hand, Sachin Pilot has repeatedly accused Gehlot of going soft on corruption cases involving Raje and her aides.

The Cost

PM Modi's 25 September Jaipur rally not only clarified that the party will not declare a CM face in elections, it also hinted that the BJP is looking to bank on a new crop of women leaders in the state.

While Raje or her previous tenures as CM found no mention in the PM's speech, BJP MP Diya Kumari and BJP National Secretary Alka Gurjar were prominently seen with the PM on stage.

And almost as if she saw this coming, Raje, in a massive show of strength held a massive political rally in Jaipur — just two days before the PM's rally.

Addressing people at that rally, she said, "I am not going to leave Rajasthan. I will stay here and serve the people."

As per a source in Rajasthan BJP, the party high command is softening its position on Raje. "Some internal surveys have hinted that Gehlot government is not doing as bad as incumbents usually perform in the state. This is being blamed on how the BJP looks confused on the outside. They know they can't completely alienate her," the source said.

Another BJP leader, however, said that Delhi's position on Raje is a carefully curated one. "They don't want her to be unhappy. If the party wins and she is unable to get the support of MLAs, she will not become the CM anyway. That is why she is hell bent on fielding as many loyalists as possible and vetoing those who might go against her. They know she won't quit the party. There isn't enough time for that and nor do BJP leaders survive and thrive outside the party fold. Her best shot then will be to actively ensure that BJP candidates lose. That, however, doesn't get her much."

Clearly, irrespective of how the BJP performs in Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje is at a crossroad which on either side leads to an uncertain political future.