Tripura went to vote on 18 February 2018. The total turnout was 78.86 percent, much lower than last time’s turnout of over 91 percent. The main battle this time is between the Left Front, which is eyeing an unprecedented 6th term in the state, and the BJP, which is riding on a major anti-incumbency wave. While the national channel have given a young, resurgent BJP an edge over the ageing Left, here’s a look at how local media have covered this election.
‘BJP Has Gained 65% Of Youth Votes’
Two of the most-watched TV news channels in Tripura – Vanguard News and Headlines Tripura, both broadcasting in Bangla – have given the BJP an edge over the CPI(M). However, both have always been known to be opposed to the Left.
Vanguard gave the BJP-IPFT alliance 33 seats, while it gave the Left 27 seats in the 60-member Assembly. The channel also predicts over 40 percent vote share for the saffron party.
The Headlines Tripura poll gives the BJP between 31 and 37 seats and the CPI(M) 23-29 seats.
The new female tribal voters and government employees especially want change. The anti-incumbency factor will reflect on the EVM, and the BJP might cross the Left. Otherwise it will be neck and neck. Our data shows over 65 percent of the youth has voted for the BJP. There is an unprecedented anti-Left wave amongst the youth according to our ground report.Sebak Bhattacharya, Managing Editor, Vanguard News
Aakash Tripura, a Left-aligned channel, on the other hand, gives the Left Front 37 seats, showing it cruising comfortably past the half-way mark, giving the remaining seats to the BJP.
All exit polls, however, show a huge fall-from-grace for the Left Front which presently holds 50 out of 60 seats in the Assembly.
There’s also the factor of intimidation and insistence on status-quo by the CPI(M). There have been instances of violence and strong-arming many district areas for years now. The youth is now unwilling to tolerate that. They feel that whatever change from the CPI(M) is worth it.Pinaki Das, local correspondent with ANI to The Quint
Massive Loses For Left In The Tribal Belt
The talking point of this election has been the BJP’s tie-up with tribal party IPFT. Of the 20 tribal seats in Tripura, the IPFT is contesting 9, while the BJP is contesting the other 11. Local papers like the Dainik Sambad and Sandyan Patrika have written extensively about this phenomenon. However, apart from the three news channels, no other publication in the state published an exit poll.
The CPI(M) never had a base in the tribal regions. It was due to the Ganamukti Parishad (GNP). The estrangement between the Left and the GNP was not taken very well by the tribal people. The BJP-IPFT alliance has therefore helped the BJP take advantage of this mistrust.Pinaki Das, local correspondent with ANI
English newspapers of the region like Tripura Times also point out that last time around, 28 seats were won by the Left with a margin of less than 2,000 votes. A slight swing of votes in these crucial seats can change the political scenario of the state.
It’s going to be a neck and neck fight. Before the election the ruling party was trying to propagate the idea that there will be a clash between the Bengalis and the tribals. The tribals did not like or subscribe to that idea. In my experience of the ground, I’ve seen that the hill people are determined towards the IPFT and the BJP. The BJP might not hold in the west district but is putting up a tough fight in the hills.Arindam Dey, Syandan Patrika
Issues Of Unemployment, Stagnancy To Determine This Election
According to the opinion poll conducted by Vanguard, the biggest issues in the state are corruption and unemployment, receiving 29 percent and 27 percent votes respectively.
When 10,000 school teachers lost their jobs according to a high court directive, that really affected people’s psyche. It showed that the Left government was depriving people of their jobs. People understood that job creation wasn’t a real agenda for the Left. They couldn’t get away with blaming it on the Central government. Earlier the state’s success in NREGA was seen as an achievement. Now people say that NREGA being successful means there are no other jobs.Pinaki Das, local correspondent with ANI
There has also been a huge public outcry against the Left’s reluctance to hand over the murder case of two journalists killed on the job last year to the CBI. This has largely been seen as lack of political will by the state to act against the perpetrators who are said to be shielded by the government.
Representatives of the media had met Home Minister Rajnath Singh regarding the CBI enquiry. One of the journalists who died, Shantanu Bhowmik, worked for the ‘Din-Raat’ channel which is run by the Left government’s transport minister. That makes their reluctance to not do anything about this even fishier.Paritosh Paul, Tripura Times
The results for Tripura election 2018 will be announced on 3 March.
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