Sharad Pawar Stays NCP Chief: Ajit Now Left with 2 Options and a Hanging Sword

While Sharad Pawar announced his decision to revoke his resignation as NCP chief, Ajit Pawar skipped the briefing.

"The way a jungle needs its lion, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) needs Sharad Pawar. It is Diwali for us today," said a party worker as she danced and rejoiced to the announcement by Sharad Pawar revoking his resignation as the party chief on Friday, 5 May putting an end to three days of unrest among the party cadre.

Drums were being rolled, flowers were being thrown at Sharad Pawar's life-sized posters, and slogans praising him were being raised outside Mumbai's YB Chavan Centre even before the octogenarian leader addressed the media to announce his decision.

One person, however, not only skipped the celebrations but also the press briefing — Ajit Pawar. The media was quick to point out his absence and quizzed the party supremo about it at least six-seven times.

While Sharad Pawar said that there is no need to read into his absence, he added that Ajit did have an idea about his resignation but not the other leaders. "If I had taken other leaders into confidence, I would not have been able to tender my resignation," he said.

With Sharad Pawar retaining the top post in the party, Ajit Pawar is now left with two options and a hanging sword.

Unease at One Briefing, Absence From Another: Is Ajit Pawar Irked?

Interestingly, after Sharad Pawar announced his resignation on Tuesday and was being persuaded by all senior party leaders in front of the media to revoke his decision, Ajit Pawar was the only leader on stage that did not address the party chief to urge him to stay.

As NCP workers present at the briefing wept and begged Sharad Pawar to stay, many of them were scolded by a visibly irritated Ajit.

He even went on to tell Supriya Sule to "not say a word" after the cadre urged her to convince her father.

Ajit's Pawar's unease at Tuesday's briefing and absence from today's did not go unnoticed.

Option 1: Joining Hands with the BJP

For the past several weeks, media reports have been abuzz with Ajit Pawar's possible plans to join hands with BJP, a move that he had made without his uncle's blessings even in 2019.

The infamous oath-taking ceremony with Devendra Fadnavis back then and going behind Sharad Pawar's back was eventually forgiven and he returned as the deupty CM. But reports of him trying to split the party with his loyalists picked pace again a few weeks ago.

Ajit Pawar's ambitions of becoming the chief minister are public knowledge. However, that might be difficult after joining hands with the BJP with Fadnavis only strengthening his campaigns to return as the CM next year. In an address at a rally on Friday, Fadnavis reiterated his famous quote: "Me punha yein (I shall return)."

Fadnavis' campaigns have not only been sending a message to the voters of his plans to win the top post again, but also to Eknath Shinde, the current leader of Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena (BSS).

So, joining hands with the BJP will again mean a secondary role for Ajit in the state unless Fadnavis agrees to sharing the tenure which is unlikely.

Moreover, Sharad Pawar's bid to quit has sent a clear message in the past three days that any dissenters will lose the cadre's support, voter base, and eventually their political deposit if any kind of rebellion is engineered against the party supremo.

If reports and sources are to be believed on any plans of Ajit Pawar wanting to switch ranks, the developments in the past three days have definitely shaken the support of any possible dissenters that he might have claimed before Sharad Pawar's announcement on Tuesday.

Moreover, the BJP has more to gain by getting Ajit on board considering his undeniable clout in Baramati, Pune, and Satara regions where many voters and leaders are considered more loyal to Ajit than than NCP.

Option 2: Staying With the MVA

If recent elections in the state and surveys are any indication, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is clearly stronger than the BJP-BSS alliance in the state.

The NCP is now the second largest party in the state in terms of electoral and organisational strength after the BJP. The three 'Vajramuth' rallies by the MVA in Sambhaji Nagar, Nagpur, and Mumbai received massive response.

The NCP has been the major contributor to the MVA's victory in most recent key polls — agricultural produce market committee (APMC) elections in April and gram panchayat elections held in December 2022 to be precise.

A survey conducted by C-Voter in January predicted victory for the MVA in 34 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2024 elections.

Secondly, if party sources in both parties are to be believed, Uddhav Thackeray is not keen on becoming the chief minister after the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections and has offered Ajit Pawar to be the CM in case the MVA gets the numbers next year.

With Thackeray having weakened orgnisationally after the Shiv Sena split last year, it's a win-win for both parties. If the NCP indeed splits, the party will weaken, the MVA will crumble.

Ajit Pawar clearly has more to gain politically by staying with the MVA but there's a sword hanging not just on him but several other NCP leaders.

What's the Hanging Sword?

Though there's no active probe against Ajit Pawar yet, firms and bodies linked to him or headed by him in the past are facing probes by central agencies.

A quick look at his legal troubles:

• While Ajit Pawar was Water Resources Minister in previous Congress-NCP governments, irregularities surfaced in irrigation projects, including in Vidarbha Irrigation Development Corporation (VIDC) of which he was the chairperson. While he has not been named in any of the FIRs, Ajit is alleged to have intervened in the process of award of contracts.

• Satara’s Jarandeshwar Sahakari Sugar Karkhana worth over Rs 65 crore linked to Ajit Pawar was attached last year under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) after the Enforcement Directorate alleged that Maharashtra Sahakari Cooperative Bank (MSCB) auctioned the sugar mill in 2010 at an undervalued price when Ajit Pawar was on the board of directors of MSCB. The ED alleged that the mill is under a proxy owner and the actual control of it is with a firm owned by Ajit Pawar and his wife Sunetra.

• The ED last month submitted a chargesheet against the MSCB. While Ajit and Sunetra's names have been dropped from the ED chargesheet, the names of the companies that came up during the probe have been retained.

Many state leaders and observers, including Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders Sanjay Raut have alleged that the BJP is trying to engineer a split in the NCP by using the central agencies, hinting at possible pressure from the BJP over Ajit Pawar and other leaders. BJP leader Narayan Rane on Thursday claimed that Ajit Pawar is on the 'fence' and was also 'at the BJP's doors' a few days ago.

While MVA leaders and Ajit Pawar himself has refuted the claims calling them attempts to destabilise the MVA, the sword of a probe by the central agencies hangs low on many NCP leaders.

Quizzed about possible rebels in the party, Sharad Pawar on Friday said:"I cannot stop anybody who wants to leave." Pawar also hinted at organisational changes in the near future to give a larger role to the next generation in the party' functioning which cannot be chalked without giving Ajit his due share.

While the issue of the party chief post seems settled for now and the NCP is only getting stronger in the state, Ajit Pawar might have to choose his options carefully.