A ‘Mood of The Nation’ survey conducted by India Today and Karvy has predicted that the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could fall short of the majority mark in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The survey predicts a tally of 237 seats for the BJP-led NDA, down by 99 seats from its 336-seat sweep in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The UPA, on the other hand, is predicted to win 166 seats, a gain of 107 from its tally in 2014.
In terms of vote share, the UPA has narrowed the gap even more. According to the survey, the NDA’s estimated vote share is 35 percent, while that of the UPA is 33 percent.
A key role is likely to be played by ‘Others’, who are predicted to win 140 seats with a combined vote share of 32 percent.
The survey makes three projections that could worry the ruling alliance.
First, if Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party join the UPA as pre-poll allies, it could come very close to forming a government. The UPA could then win 269 seats, just three short of the halfway mark, with a combined vote share of 44 percent. The NDA would then be pushed to 219 seats.
Second, if PDP, BSP, SP and TMC join the UPA and if AIADMK, YSRCP, TRS and BJD join the NDA. Both the alliances would have a combined vote share of 44 percent. But in terms of seats, UPA would be just at the halfway mark at 272 while the NDA would have 257 seats.
Third, if PDP, BSP, SP and TMC join the UPA and if AIADMK and YSRCP join the NDA. In this case, the UPA would get 272 seats and the NDA would be at 234 seats. The vote shares would be 44 percent for UPA and 40 percent for NDA.
A substantial part of the NDA’s losses are coming from Uttar Pradesh, where it is likely to go from 73 seats in 2014 to 18 seats, a fall of 55 seats. This means that over half of the NDA’s losses are from India’s most populous state. The losses are largely due to the alliance formed by the SP, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal.
However, the survey doesn’t factor in Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s appointment as the Congress’ in-charge for Eastern Uttar Pradesh.
Another survey released today, by ABP News and C-Voter, makes a similar prediction. According to it, the NDA could win 233 seats and the UPA could win 167. However, it puts the vote share gap between the two alliances at 4 percent and not 2 percent like India Today-Karvy.
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