Chhattisgarh politics is in a flux. Once close friends and locally called 'Jai-Veeru ki Jodi' - chief minister Bhupesh Baghel and health minister TS Singh Deo - are now at daggers drawn.
This has become a headache for Congress, which is already dealing with factional feuds in two other state governments: Punjab and Rajasthan.
The Congress high command has now summoned Bhupesh Baghel to Delhi for the second time. He is likely to meeting the party high command on Friday 27 August.
WHAT LED TO THE STANDOFF?
The standoff had intensified following MLA Brihaspati Singh's allegation that Deo had masterminded an attack on him. Deo had denied the allegations and demanded an inquiry.
However, the major bone of contention is the arrangement proposed by the party leadership after its victory in 2018 - that Baghel and Deo will remain CM for 2.5 years each. Baghel's 2.5 years are about to come to an end.
There was a closed-door meeting with Rahul Gandhi that lasted three hours but remained inconclusive.
Also present at the meeting besides Gandhi, Baghel and Deo were Congress' in-charge for Chhattisgarh PL Punia, the party's general secretary (organisation) KC Venugopal. But none of them divulged any details on what transpired.
On record, they claim that there are no "differences" and that the main agenda is the progress of Chhattisgarh. However, it is clear that all is not well in the Chhattisgarh Congress.
Political observers say that a lot had transpired at the meeting.
CM Baghel didn't interact with the media in Delhi on Wednesday but he did speak to them on his arrival at Raipur airport. He said two things: "If Sonia (Gandhi) ji instructs me to resign, I will resign" and "people who are trying to destabilise my government won't succeed through their gimmicks".
WHY DEO'S SUPPORTERS ARE STILL OPTIMISTIC
Sources within the party said that there are three things which are driving the hopes of Deo and his supporters.
First, after the Congress' huge victory in the 2018 Assembly elections, Rahul Gandhi is said to have promised Deo that he would be given the CM's chair after Baghel's 2.5 years are over.
Second, a Congress leader who is also a Raja from a Madhya Pradesh principality, had made a similar promise to Deo. Incidentally, Deo also happens to be from the royal family of Surguja.
Third, there is some dissatisfaction against the Baghel government within the Congress.
Apart from these, Deo has also managed to maintain his Teflon image despite several attempts to undermine him - such as frequent transfer of department secretaries, delays in clearing files from his department, the CM chairing meetings of the health department during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic without intimating the minister.
Deo also managed to emerge relatively unscathed from the controversy surrounding MLA Brihaspati Singh.
HOW BAGHEL HAD PIPPED DEO TO BECOME CM
Let's briefly cut back to when Baghel was about to be announced as Chhattisgarh's CM in 2018.
At that time, around 32 out of Congress' 68 MLAs were said to have been in contact with Deo. Therefore, the party couldn't have afforded to ignore him.
This is when the 2.5 year formula was being talked about.
However, after being sworn in, Baghel cultivated himself as a strong OBC leader, who is powerful not just in the state but one who the Congress can showcase in other parts of the Hindi heartland as well.
His role in coordinating the Congress campaign in Assam also won him some goodwill with the party high command, Rahul Gandhi in particular.
"Two things work in favour of Bhupesh Baghel. First, the crisis in the Punjab Congress and second, his emergence as an OBC face of the Congress. With the UP elections, round the corner, it may not be wise for the party to remove him as CM," said Ashok Tomar, a Chhattisgarh based political analyst.
Any attempt to remove him will be seen as "anti-OBC", he added.
Baghel has also done a fair job as CM, party insiders say, especially in matters related to rural development and the economy. Even on the Covid front, Chhattisgarh didn't make headlines for the wrong reasons unlike many other states.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Apparently the 2.5 year formula wasn't really an official thing, though Deo's supporters keep claiming that it was.
The question is - will Deo quit if he's denied the top post? If that happens it will be highly embarrassing for the Congress, which is anyway dealing with high profile desertions from several states.
However, judging by the instability in the Congress governments in Punjab and Rajasthan, the party can't afford to rock the boat in Chhattisgarh.
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