On 19 June, BJP leader Ram Madhav announced that the party was ending its alliance with Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Jammu and Kashmir. Mehbooba Mufti subsequently submitted her resignation as Chief Minister.
What does this mean for the Jammu and Kashmir government? Will this lead to a hung Assembly and subsequent Governor’s rule? Or can an alternative coalition emerge? Before we look at the likely scenarios, here are the numbers in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly (as things stand):
- People’s Democratic Party (PDP): 28
- Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 25
- Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC): 15
- Indian National Congress (INC): 12
- Independents and Others: 5
- CPI(M): 1
- J&K People’s Democratic Front (PDF): 1
Adding two nominated MLAs brings the total strength of the J&K Assembly to 89. However, the magic figure (the halfway mark) is calculated on the basis of elected MLAs (that is: 87 not 89).
The halfway mark in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly therefore stands at 44 seats, which means that whichever party, or whichever alliance, attains this number or more, can prove majority and form the new government.
Now, here are the likely scenarios:
Scenario 1: Cong Joins Hands with PDP and Independents, Forms New Govt
If the Congress (with its 12 seats) reaches out to PDP (with its 28) and also the 7 others (Independents and Others + CPM + PDF) to form an alliance, the newly-formed coalition could have as many as 47 MLAs, well over the 44-seat halfway mark.
The new alliance could then prove its majority on the floor of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, and form the new government in the state.
But will Rahul Gandhi join hands with Mehbooba Mufti? No pundit has a definite answer to that yet.
Scenario 2: Governor’s Rule
If the Congress chooses to muster the support of all the non-BJP, non-PDP MLAs in the House, it would still fall way short of the halfway mark.
A coalition of Congress (12), Omar Abdullah’s J&K National Conference (15), the J&K PDF (1), the CPI(M) (1) and independent candidates and others (5) would only reach a total of 34 seats. In this instance, the state would have a hung Assembly, and would likely result in the imposition of Governor’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir.
Scenario 3: BJP-NC Alliance, Though Ruled Out by Abdullah
If the BJP (25) were to form a similar alliance with the J&K NC (15), the J&K PDF (1), the CPI(M) (1) and independent candidates and others (5), it would cross the 44-seat halfway mark. With 47 seats, it could theoretically form the new government.
However, an hour after the BJP broke away from the ruling alliance in Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah ruled out all possibilities of an alliance with either the PDP or the BJP. He said that his party is in favour of Governor’s rule in the state and early elections. “We didn’t have the mandate in 2014 and we don’t have the mandate now to form the government. We have neither been approached by any party nor have we been approached by anyone,” Abdullah said.
After all, politics is the art of the possible. For now, the answer to what happens next in Jammu and Kashmir is one big question mark.
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