The Bihar legislative Assembly on 9 November unanimously passed a Bill increasing the quantum of reservation for scheduled castes, extremely backward castes, backward castes and scheduled tribes, based on the findings of the recently concluded caste census.
This is a major win for the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan government, which has been the main votary of the caste census.
With this, the overall quantum of reservation in government jobs and government-run educational institutions goes up to 75 percent. This includes the 10 percent reservation for Economically Weaker Sections among unreserved communities, as per the central government's legislation.
This piece will try and answer these four questions.
What is the increase in reservation for different sections?
What could be its political impact?
What happens outside Bihar?
Why its importance goes beyond elections
What's the Increase in Reservation Across Sections?
For extremely backward castes, the quota has been increased from 18 percent to 25 percent.
Among backward castes, the quota has been increased from 12 percent to 18 percent.
For scheduled castes it has been increased from 16 percent to 20 percent.
For scheduled tribes, it has gone up from one percent to two percent.
Check the table below for a comparison of the earlier and new reservation formula. It also gives the share of the population of each of these sections, as per the caste census.
What Could Be Its Political Impact?
The caste census is one of the major planks for the INDIA bloc, of which Bihar's Mahagatbandhan (comprising RJD, JD-U, Congress, CPI-ML, CPI and CPI-M) is a major part.
The BJP has been confused in its response so far.
The BJP's initial reaction when the caste census data was first released, was to accuse the INDIA bloc of "trying to divide Hindus". Since then, the party has softened its position, fearing that it could alienate backward castes.
Recently, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made a controversial remark that the caste census had "inflated the numbers for Yadavs and Muslims". The Bihar government dismissed this as "unsubstantiated".
The BJP's aim seems to have been to present the Mahagathbandhan as an extension of the RJD and wean away the JD-U's base among EBCs.
However, when the Bill increasing the quantum of reservation came up in the Bihar Assembly, the BJP ended up supporting it.
In Bihar at least, the caste census and now the increase in quotas have put the momentum firmly with the Mahagathbandhan.
The increase in quotas would help the alliance consolidate its base among both BCs and EBCs besides maybe even increasing some support among Dalits.
It would need the BJP a major mobilisation on a nationalist or Hindutva plank to neutralise this in Bihar. Even after the pro-Modi wave post the Pulwama attacks and Balakot strikes, the NDA's sweep in Bihar wouldn't have been possible had the JD-U not been on its side.
A united Mahagathbandhan was as it is a major threat for the BJP. But a united Mahagathbandhan armed with the narrative of the caste census and 'representation as per numbers' is going to be very difficult to take on.
The problem for the INDIA bloc, however, is what happens outside of Bihar?
What Happens Outside Bihar?
So far the states which have announced a caste census are Karnataka, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Maharashtra and Assam have said they are studying Bihar's methodology before proceeding.
Karnataka could potentially be another state with favourable circumstances for the INDIA bloc because CM Siddaramaiah's social coalition, like Nitish Kumar, is greatly centered around non-dominant backward castes. However, the BJP-JD(S) alliance could lead to a consolidation of dominant agrarian castes - Lingayats and Vokkaligas - against the Congress.
In Rajasthan, elections are already underway and the caste census doesn't seem to have become a major issue.
In Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, the initiative for the caste census has been taken by regional parties not aligned either with the NDA or the INDIA bloc - YSRCP and BJD respectively.
In both states, the entire exercise is likely to become part of these two parties' efforts to strengthen their social coalition.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress has said that it will carry out a caste census if it comes to power in the ongoing elections. However, the state doesn't have a history of strong social justice-based politics, unlike Bihar or Uttar Pradesh. So it political potency of this plank may not be as much as it is in Bihar. The same holds true for Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. But unlike MP, the Congress has prominent OBC faces in both these states.
The two most important states in this context are Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
Maharashtra is presently undergoing a major churn with Marathas demanding OBC status and OBCs resisting any attempt towards this. A caste census, which provides data both on the share of different communities in the state's population as well as their socio-economic indicators, may actually be the way out of this standoff.
Whether INDIA bloc grabs this opportunity or the NDA remains to be seen.
Uttar Pradesh would really be the test case for the INDIA bloc's caste census plank. Currently, the BJP is on a high in the state due to the 'double engine' of PM Narendra Modi and CM Yogi Adityanath and the consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits behind the BJP, besides its loyal upper caste base.
The INDIA bloc is in disarray in the state, with there being no signs of any cooperation the Samajwadi Party and Congress so far.
It's Importance Goes Beyond Elections
The caste census and the increase in quantum of reservations in Bihar, is actually a development whose significance goes way beyond the 2024 elections.
It gives a new vocabulary for politics, with communities being given representation based on systematic, data-driven documentation of social and economic marginalisation.
The process also strengthens the argument that the 50 percent ceiling on caste-based reservation was actually a way of achieving the opposite of what quotas were meant for: it ended up reserving 50 percent of seats for dominant castes who weren't even 20 percent of the population.
The caste census also can potentially counter the Hindu-Muslim binary that has been the cornerstone of the BJP's politics. It's a different way of looking at society - with communities within Hindus and Muslims falling within both reserved and unreserved categories.
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