Actor and philanthropist Sonu Sood met Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Friday, 27 August, and the Delhi government appointed him as the brand ambassador of its child mentorship programme. Though this happened in Delhi, this development is important in the context of the Punjab elections, as Sood is originally from Moga in Punjab.
AAP isn't the first party to try and appropriate Sood, who gained a lot of goodwill after he helped a number of migrants stuck during the COVID lockdown last year.
Even the Congress government in Punjab brought Sood on board by making him the brand ambassador of its vaccination programme.
AAP's overtures towards Sood are only proof of what is becoming an extremely competitive political landscape in Punjab ahead of next year's Assembly elections.
In this context, AAP seems to be emerging as a major beneficiary of the tussle within the Congress and the prevalent resentment against both the current Captain Amarinder Singh regime as well as the previous SAD-BJP government.
In another important development this week, former SAD leader Sewa Singh Sekhwan joined AAP on Thursday, 26 August. Originally from Gurdaspur district, Sekhwan's entry is likely to strengthen AAP in the Majha region where it has been comparatively weak, especially following the exit of erstwhile top leaders like Gurpreet Singh 'Ghuggi' and Suchha Singh Chhotepur.
This article will try and look at three questions.
What's working for AAP?
What are the shortcomings it is facing?
What lies ahead?
WHAT'S WORKING FOR AAP?
This reporter visited six districts across all three regions in Punjab over the last one month and observed that there is an atmosphere of dissatisfaction against Congress, Akali Dal and BJP.
"Badals and Captain have both done nothing, give jhadoo (AAP's symbol) a chance," is a common refrain among voters.
The surge in favour of AAP is strongest in the Malwa region, especially among farmers. Since its foray into Punjab, this region has been AAP's main area of influence. All the four seats it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections were in this region and 90 percent of the seats it won in the 2017 Assembly elections were also in Malwa.
The resilience of AAP's base is surprising given how it was routed in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections — winning just one seat and in the local body polls, in which the party stood a distant third.
What's also significant is that AAP seems to be gaining some ground in places like Amritsar city, mainly due to anti-incumbency against the Congress and SAD and the weakening of the BJP as an option after the Akalis broke ties with the party.
AAP's 'bijli guarantee' and campaign against high power tariffs, in particular, is getting good traction among voters.
WHAT ARE THE OBSTACLES AAP FACES?
Majha and Doaba
While AAP has made some inroads into places like Amritsar, which is in the Majha region, both Majha and Doaba regions remain a problem for the party.
No doubt, there is a political vacuum in these areas but there are limits to how much it is being able to capitalise on this mainly because it is weaker than Congress and SAD in terms of cadre strength and resources. This is the case even in some parts of Malwa, such as Ferozepur and Fazilka districts.
However, the party is hoping to improve in Majha through the entry of leaders like Sewa Singh Sekhwan.
Hindu Face
Hindu voters in Punjab have mostly preferred voting for Congress or BJP in the past. In fact, the shift of this section has often proven decisive in elections in Punjab.
In 2017, AAP faced a major trust deficit in this section due to rumours of it having pro-Khalistan elements.
Though there was no basis to these rumours, a massive shift of Hindu voters after the Maur Mandi blast propelled the Congress towards a big victory in the elections. Similarly, the BJP won Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur due to a shift of this section of voters in 2019.
AAP has been trying to address this deficit but it is facing a problem in the absence of a strong local Hindu face.
The party has given prominence to former IG Kunwar Vijay Pratap Singh and he is likely to contest from a crucial Hindu dominated seat — Amritsar North. However, Singh is originally from Bihar and isn't quite seen as a Hindu leader with a pan-Punjab appeal.
In fact, promoting Singh pushed former BJP MLA from Amritsar North and a prominent Hindu leader from the city – Anil Joshi – towards SAD. Joshi had an old conflict with Singh when the latter was posted in Amritsar and now the two are likely to face-off in the election.
The Congress seems to have stronger Hindu representation — ministers like Brahm Mohindra, Bharat Bhushan Ashu, Vijay Inder Singla, Aruna Chaudhary, OP Soni, SS Arora, former PCC chief Sunil Jakhar, MPs like Manish Tewari are all prominent Hindu faces.
AAP has a few leaders like Sunam MLA Aman Arora but it is still seen as a largely Jatt Sikh dominated party in Punjab.
Dalit Representation
There is a broader crisis of Dalit representation cutting across the main parties in Punjab. The SAD is trying to make up for this with its alliance with the BSP. AAP is trying to woo this section by projecting its most prominent Dalit face — Leader of the Opposition Harpal Singh Cheema.
However, the Dalits in Punjab – Ravidasis, Valmikis, and Mazhabis – are yet to be convinced about any of the major parties. In that sense, AAP will have to work hard to convince this section to shift towards it.
CM Face
AAP has so far not announced a chief ministerial face. A sizable chunk of party cadres are demanding that Sangrur MP and AAP State President Bhagwant Mann be projected as the CM face in advance.
Mann does have a strong case — he has remained loyal to the party even as other top leaders like Gurpreet Ghuggi, HS Phoolka, Sukhpal Khaira left.
He was also the only successful candidate of AAP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning from Sangrur.
Being a Jatt Sikh, he is also from the category as the AAP's primary support base unlike someone like Harpal Cheema.
However, AAP has been a bit reticent in openly announcing him as the CM candidate.
Perhaps, the party is afraid of the election being reduced to a personality contest between Mann, Navjot Sidhu/Captain Amarinder Singh, and Sukhbir Badal. It wants to gain as much mileage from the anti-incumbency sentiment as posssible.
However, not declaring a CM candidate in advance isn't a smart strategy and could raise questions over AAP's prospects as well as its seriousness in taking on the Congress and SAD.
It may have to bite this bullet sooner or later.
WHAT LIES AHEAD
The major challenge for AAP has been converting "sentiment" into "winnability". Even in the run-up to the 2017 elections, surveys conducted over six months before the elections had predicted an AAP victory. But in many of the seats, it had failed to capitalise on the sentiment in its favour.
A major X-Factor in this election is the tussle within the Congress.
If the Congress projects Navjot Sidhu as its CM candidate, it could alter political equations.
Sidhu's appeal, like that of AAP, stems from the perception that he is "different" from politicians like the Badals and Captain, who have dominated Punjab politics.
If Sidhu does become the CM candidate and AAP doesn't project a CM in time, it could constrain the latter's rise.
However, Sidhu like AAP, faces some distrust from Hindu voters. He doesn't enjoy the kind of credibility Captain did in this section in 2017.
In either case, the Congress' decision on the leadership issue could compel a churn in state politics.
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