Nationalist Congress Party leader Ajit Pawar was sworn in as Maharashtra's deputy chief minister on 2 July, marking his shift to the BJP-led coalition in the state. While the number of MLAs who are shifting with Ajit Pawar is still unclear, it is clear that Pawar has managed engineer a major split his uncle Sharad Pawar's party.
The NCP's recently appointed working president Praful Patel is also said to have shifted along with Ajit Pawar as has senior leader Chhaggan Bhujbal.
BJP insiders say, this shift was always a "matter of time".
'Sharad Pawar could have kept his party united by joining NDA'
"The BJP leadership has always had multiple points of contact in the NCP - Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel and Sharad Pawar himself. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always been cordial with Sharad Pawar and the doors of the NDA have always been open for him. He could have kept his party united had he joined PM Modi's development bandwagon. He could have done that in 2019 itself," a BJP office bearer told The Quint.
"Sharad Pawar chose to be part of the Opposition's plans and play second fiddle to the Congress. That's why his party leaders decided to come to our side," the officer bearer added.
The BJP leader claimed Ajit Pawar's shift could have happened earlier also but it got delayed due to "NCP's internal issues".
Though the Maharashtra leadership, especially Devendra Fadnavis, played a key role in keeping the pressure on the NCP, the NCP split wouldn't have happened without the active involvement of PM Modi and home minister Amit Shah.
BJP insiders are confident that Ajit Pawar will be able to bring the number of MLAs required for a split under the anti-defection law. The NCP has 53 MLAs, Ajit Pawar would need the support of 36 to avoid action under the anti-defection law.
BJP's Answer to 'United Opposition'
Maharashtra was central to the Opposition's unity efforts. Accounting for the second largest chunk of Lok Sabha seats - 48 - Maharashtra had become a challenge for the BJP with Uddhav Thacekray's Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress inching closer to a pre-poll alliance.
By weaning away Ajit Pawar and a sizable number of NCP leaders and MLAs, the BJP has conducted what its own leaders have started calling a 'surgical strike' on the Opposition.
Buoyed by this development, BJP leaders now claim that any 'anti-Modi' alliance is bound to fail.
BJP Gets More Leverage in Maharashtra
If Ajit Pawar does manage to split enough MLAs to escape the anti-defection law, it would beef up the ruling coalition's numbers significantly.
Presently, the BJP has 105 MLAs in the 288 member house, along with 40 from CM Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and about 21 additional MLAs from Independents and smaller parties.
If Ajit Pawar splits over 36, it would end BJP's dependence on Eknath Shinde.
BJP would still want Shinde on its side for the sake of the arithmetic for the Lok Sabha elections.
However, it gives the party immense leverage in seat-sharing discussions.
Shinde, who had been asking for 22 seats, won't be in a position to demand that any more. Also as a Maratha leader Ajit Pawar has far greater clout than Eknath Shinde.
The only justification for keeping Shinde on the CM's chair would be to prevent any revival in Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena.
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