NDA to Fall Short of Majority in 2019 Elections: ABP-CVoter Survey

The NDA is predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA is predicted to settle for 167 seats, according to the survey.

The ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may fall short of the majority mark of 272 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA is predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA is predicted to settle for 167 seats.

The BJP alone is expected to bag 203 seats, while the Congress alone is expected to bag 109.

The Third Front parties are poised to be kingmakers with a combined tally of over 130 seats.

However, the NDA will still be the largest pre-poll alliance by a comfortable margin, the survey says.

• If the NDA gets the support of YSRCP, BJD, MNF and TRS, its tally is expected to reach 278, slightly more than the majority mark.
• If the UPA gets the support of AIUDF, LDF, TMC and the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ of SP-BSP-RLD, its tally is expected to reach 257.

Here are some of the other highlights of the survey:

• Parties that were present at Mamata Banerjee’s rally,  in addition to the Left parties, are predicted to get 257 seats.

• At 25%, anger against the Centre is at its highest in the past five years.
  
• The Citizenship Bill has harmed the BJP in the Northeast
  
• The Mahagathbandhan has gained ground in Uttar Pradesh. It is up from 42 seats in December to 51. NDA is down from 36 seats to 25 seats.

Here are what the numbers for the states look like:

The SP-BSP-RLD alliance is predicted to have a clean victory in Uttar Pradesh with 51 seats out of 80. In Punjab, the UPA is expected to sweep, winning 12 out of 13 seats. The NDA is predicted to have an upper hand in Delhi, Himachal, Uttarakhand Haryana and Bihar.

The NDA is expected to win a majority of seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, the UPA is at an advantage in Maharashtra. In Goa, the NDA and UPA are expected to bag one seat each.

While the NDA is expected to be at an advantage in Odisha over Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is expected to sweep West Bengal.

Among the southern states, the regional parties are expected to win big in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. While the UPA has an upper hand in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, it’s neck and neck with the NDA in Karnataka.

In the Northeast, the NDA and UPA will have a tough fight in most states.