Channi's 11-Point Rise Helps Congress Narrow Gap With AAP in Punjab: ABP-CVoter

Preference for Channi has gone up from 20% in October to 31% in November, according to CVoter's survey.

Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi seems to be leading a strong Congress fightback in Punjab, at least that's what a recent survey by CVoter and ABP News seems to indicate.

Channi's popularity has increased be a phenomenal 11 percentage points in the past one month. According to CVoter's tracker, 20 percent respondents in Punjab had chosen Channi as their CM choice. This has increased to 31 percent, well ahead of all his rivals. At number two is AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal at 20.9 percent. In October, Kejriwal was the top choice at 22.2 percent.

In terms of seats, the survey has predicted a hung Assembly with AAP having a slight lead over the Congress. H

However, the gap between the two parties has come down a bit. It was around 10 seats in October but has come down to approximately 5 seats with AAP in the 47-53 range and Congress in the 42-50 range.

But worryingly for the Congress, the Net Satisfaction rating of the state government, chief minister and the party's central leadership continue to be negative.

SO WHAT EXPLAINS SUDDEN RISE IN PEOPLE'S PREFERENCE FOR CHANNI?

The answer to this is the political vacuum in Punjab. This is the first post-Badal/Captain era election in Punjab.

There is a strong sentiment for change and a new leadership in the state and as of now Channi seems to be capturing occupying a part of that vacuum.

This has also been made possible due to two factors: SAD's Sukhbir Badal still remains discredited among a sizable part of Punjab's electorate and is unable to grow beyond core Akali supporters.

The second is the failure of AAP to project a CM candidate so far. Being a party that has never occupied power in Punjab, AAP was ideally suited to occupy the 'change' space in the state. It could have projected its top leader in the state Bhagwant Mann as the CM candidate.

Had the contest been against just Captain and the Badals, Mann may have had a strong impact as the "common man" taking on the two entrenched leaders.

But by replacing Captain with Channi, the Congress has changed equations. Channi's humble origins, Dalit background and his generally amiable but firm demeanour seems to have struck a cord with a section of the voters.

He has also been clever in another respect. One of the major criticisms against Captain was that he's aloof and doesn't engage with people.

Channi, on the other hand, can be seen regularly mingling with people without many airs.

However, it may be too early to say whether Channi will be able to take the Congress towards victory. He still faces a number of obstacles. The constant tussle with Navjot Singh Sidhu continues to be a problem. Then there are the occasional barbs from leaders like Sunil Jakhar and Manish Tewari.

The other problem that the Congress is facing that it still doesn't seem to have managed to consolidate its traditional vote bank of urban Hindu voters. The consolidation of this section close to elections got the Congress a huge majority in 2017. However, this section is yet to reveal their cards. AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal is trying hard to court this demographic. One of the reasons for AAP's reluctance to project Bhagwant Mann is also that it would do nothing to boost its popularity in this section.

Closer to polls, which way floating voters go may decide who comes up on top.