Karnataka Seat-Sharing: Why JD(S) Has Gained More Than It Gave Up

Although this was less than what it demanded, JD(S) has gained more than it gave up in seat-sharing with Congress.

For close to a month, the Janata Dal (Secular) kept the Congress party in Karnataka on its toes during seat-sharing meetings, demanding 12 out of the 28 seats in the state for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Led by party supremo HD Deve Gowda, the JD(S) lobbied hard to keep its seat share in double digits, but when the final list came out on Wednesday, 13 March, they had to settle for just eight seats.

Although eight was below their demand, on its balance sheets the JD(S) has more profits than losses.

Despite being a decisive force in Karnataka’s politics, the JD(S) hasn’t made a big impact on national politics because of its limited number of seats in Parliament. In the past three general elections, the party has only managed 2-3 seats in Karnataka.

But, with its new alliance with the Congress, the JD(S) is hoping to increase its national influence.

According to party sources, out of the eight seats it will contest, the JD(S) is confident of winning at least five; and at least three of them coming from regions where the party doesn’t have a considerable influence.

The Home Advantage

Out of the eight seats where the JD(S) is contesting, in two seats the party is expecting an easy victory. Hassan and Mandya, which are traditional JD(S) strongholds, are expected to be walkovers for the party in the elections.

Hassan

Former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda, who enjoys a large support base in this part of the state, has been elected to Parliament five times from Hassan. On 13 March, Deve Gowda announced his grandson Prajwal would take over the seat from him. Prajwal is confident of a win because of his grandfather’s legacy and his work in the constituency in the recent past.

Mandya

Considered the home turf of the JD(S), this is the constituency from where Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy is preparing to launch his son Nikhil Gowda. Though Sumalatha, widow of actor-turned-politician Ambareesh is giving him a tough fight, the JD(S) is expected to employ all its assets to ensure his victory.

The New Frontiers

While the first two seats fall under the JD(S)’s sphere of influence, there are two new seats, where the party is hopeful of opening their account. Victory in these two seats is expected to help the JD(S) increase its influence further in the South Karnataka region.

Bengaluru North

After giving up his seat in Hassan, Deve Gowda is expected to contest from Bengaluru North. The seat is currently held by senior BJP leader DV Sadanada Gowda, but with a large Vokkaliga population, which is a traditional JD(S) vote bank, Gowda expects to win this seat.

Tumkuru

The Tumkuru seat is currently held by the Congress, and was given to the JD(S) as part of the seat-sharing agreement. In the 2014 Assembly election, the Congress had won the seat with 4.29 lakh votes. The JD(S) came third with 2.5 lakh votes, after the BJP, which secured 3.5 lakh votes.

In the Assembly election, however, this trend changed. In the eight Assembly constituencies forming the Tumkuru Lok Sabha seat, four were won by the BJP, three were won by the JD(S) and the Congress won only one.

As they have increased their vote share during the Assembly election, the JD(S) hopes to win the seat with the transfer of votes from the Congress.

The Hopeful Ones

The JD(S)’s influence in Karnataka has been limited to south Karnataka and they have not made considerable impact in politics of north and central Karnataka in the recent past. However, with its new alliance with the Congress, the JD(S) is hoping for a breakthrough in north and central region, even though the competition is tough.

Vijayapura

The JD(S) had made some gains in this north Karnataka district during the 2018 Assembly elections. Out of the eight Assembly constituencies forming the Vijayapura constituency, the JD(S) had won two seats. The Congress had won three Assembly seats in Vijayapura, which gives the JD(S) the confidence to win this seat with the transfer of votes.

However, the party doesn’t have a strong candidate for the seat so far, and despite the losses in Assembly elections, Vijayapura remains a stronghold of the BJP, which they have not lost since 1999.

Shivamoga

Being the home constituency of the BJP state President BS Yeddyurappa, Shivamoga is considered a BJP bastion. But the situation changed drastically for the BJP during the elections in November 2018. While the former chief minister had won with a huge margin of over 3.6 lakh votes in 2014, his son Raghavendra won by about 52,000-plus votes in the 2018 by-election. The JD(S) is once again fielding Madhu Bangarappa, who took on Raghavendara during the by-election as their candidate.

The Consolation Prizes

While the JD(S) has hopes for victory in five to six seats, in the two seats in the coastal Karnataka – Uttara Kannada and Udupi-Chikkamagalur, the JD(S)‘s chances of victory are less. In this communally polarised region, two seats are held by the BJP’s firebrand leader Anant Kumar Hegde and Shobha Karandlaje. Even though the party doesn’t have chance in this region, they hope to make their mark felt in this part of the state.

Finally, increasing its Lok Sabha seat-share in Karnataka, which it couldn’t do on its own, would be the biggest advantage for the JD(S) from its alliance with the Congress. Even though their demand for the 12 seats didn’t materialise, the JD(S) has gained more from the coalition equations than the Congress in Karnataka.