1.5° Celsius Threshold Breached on 86 Days: Why This Matters More Than You Think

Extreme weather events occurred almost every single day in India in 2022.

In 2022, out of the 365 days of the year, India was hit by extreme weather events on 314 days, research published earlier this year by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down to Earth showed.

This means extreme weather events occurred almost every single day in India. Believe it or not, increasing global temperatures have a lot to do with it.

On Monday, 20 November, the United Nations Environment Programme released its annual global Emissions Gap Report 2023.

Here’s what the report said:

“86 days have been recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this year. Not only was September the hottest month ever, it also exceeded the previous record by an unprecedented 0.5°C, with global average temperatures at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels.”

With global temperatures increasing, more and more extreme weather events could fog our future. To contextualise this report for us and to help us understand what this means, The Quint spoke with climate experts.

The Big Question: What Does ‘Global Temperature Threshold Breached’ Even Mean?

To put it simply, global warming or an increase in global temperatures causes climate change – which leads to extreme weather events and impacts all forms of life on earth.

The UN report says that for 86 days in 2023, the temperature breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark, on an average globally. 

Why this is important, Anumita Roychowdhury, Executive Director, Research and Advocacy, Centre for Science and Environment, tells The Quint is because this indicates that we are now going to see more of an increase in global temperatures.

But wait, let’s back up a little. What is the time frame we are looking at? The global temperature breached the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark, but compared to what?

“The baseline for comparison is the pre-industrial revolution temperature. The energy consumption and emission of gases causing global warming – like carbon dioxide – increased manifold after industrialisation began. Once emitted, these gases stay in the air for a long period of time and absorb heat. This is what causes global warming and an increase in temperatures.”

Anumita Roychowdhury

And is the emissions of gases like carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases the only reason that we’re seeing an increase in temperatures? Not exactly, says Karthik Ganesan, Fellow and Director, Research Coordination, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).

He explains that we’ve been seeing warmer temperatures lately, which are highly driven by human activity-led climate change. But this time around, that alone is to not blame.

“The El Nino cycle, which is in place till 2026, has a huge role to play in this. When El Nino fades, it might go back to the regular system where CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the reason that the temperature thrives. But yes, in the coming years, global temperatures might tip towards this threshold temporarily.”

Karthik Ganesan

Any of this is not to say that El Nino is the sole reason that temperatures are increasing. Anthropogenic climate change and emissions have a lot to do with it too. 

Ganesan goes on to explain, “For instance, in 2022, when El Nino was not in cycle, the global temperature rise noted was 1.15 degrees Celsius, so there’s already a baseline that is anthropogenically created. Any additional burden might be in part due to El Nino. We can’t say how much though.”

Unusual Seasonal Changes, Extreme Weather Events: What’s Next

So what does this mean? Are we going to be seeing any extreme impact of this temperature increase?

Roychowdhury sighs, “We are not waiting for the madness to be unleashed, it’s already happening.”

Ganesan agrees. With temperatures increasing, there’s a lot that is at risk. Human life, lives of animals, insects, etc, all stand to be affected.

But what’s more concerning (and what we’re already experiencing too) could be a decreased crop yield for farmers.

“The natural ecosystems, human health, food, and a lot of things that we depend on for our basic survival will be affected,” says Ganesan.

And now, extreme weather events around the globe will only increase going forward. Roychowdhury says that due to an “imbalance in the global weather system,” floods, cyclones, extreme rainfall days, drought, and extreme heat days will become more frequent.

“The polar ice is melting faster and sea levels are rising. Many coastal zones, low-lying areas, and island nations could even face the risk of extinction.”

Anumita Roychowdhury

What Should Global Bodies Be Doing?

This does not sound very promising. Should we be panicking at this moment? No, says Ganesan.

He adds, “This is unfortunate, but not something to lose hope over. For the longer run, the trajectory is still in our control.”

So what should authorities and international agencies be doing? Ganesan has some suggestions:

• Introspect why emissions are growing.

• Check why some of the aggressive pledges made were not fulfilled - whether it is about renewable energy, transport reduction. Are global policymakers even thinking about these?

• Internalise that the emissions need to be capped, not just the emissions growth.

• Check whether your consumption of resources is actually helping anyone.

For instance, Ganesan cites India’s example. In 2021, we had a seven percent share of global emissions. This is not a lot. In fact, India does morally have a claim over a higher carbonspace.

But what we, as a country, also need to justify is whether our consumption of carbon is genuinely benefiting the poor in any way? Because that is the only reason our carbon consumption is justified. 

“The only thing we can fix is what we emit. We have to figure out how to decrease our emissions by at least 22 gigatonnes if we want to stay on track to achieve net zero. Right now, you have to ‘Mitigate, Mitigate, Mitigate’. Otherwise you’ll have to ‘Adapt, Adapt, Adapt’ in a few years.”

Karthik Ganesan

What Else Did The UN Report Say?

The Emissions Gap Report highlighted issues of significant concern for the climate. Some key takeaways from the report are:

• We’ve depleted the “limited remaining carbon budget.”

• Temperatures are likely to increase between 2.5-3 degrees Celsius by 2030.

• “Warming is expected to increase further after 2100 as CO2 emissions are not yet projected to reach net-zero levels.”

• Countries need to focus on economy-wide low-carbon transformations.

Harjeet Singh, who heads global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, said,

“The window for action is rapidly closing, and unless we act urgently and dramatically to shift away from fossil fuels and embrace green energy, the chances of limiting warming to even 1.5°C are dismally low. The time for bold, decisive, and equitable climate action is now.”