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Video Producer: Shohini Bose
Video Editor: Puneet Bhatia
Cameraperson: Abhishek Ranjan
Yeh Jo India Hai Na… It needs a COVID-19 vaccine really urgently. With over 19,000 dead, nearly 2.5 lakh active cases, adding 20,000 cases everyday. Yes, a vaccine would save a lot of lives, would get our economy back on track.
But does that mean we can simply make it happen by 15 August. The answer, unfortunately, is no. Will you and I be able to have a dose of Covaxin by 15 August? No. Is the Indian Council of Medical Research or ICMR’s plan to launch India's 'fully indigenous' corona vaccine on 15 August just wishful thinking? Unfortunately, yes.
Click on the player below for the podcast.
Could India be the first country to develop a corona vaccine? Maybe, maybe not, but, certainly not by 15 August. And why am I emphasising this? Because to push out a vaccine in such a hurry would be highly unscientific, highly irresponsible and it could cost lives instead of saving any.
And scientists are racing to do that, some vaccines are even in initial stages of clinical trials. But nobody, nobody has any chance of having a vaccine, tried, tested and ready by August, not even September, or even October.
It was only on 29 June that we first heard of this potential indigenous vaccine 'Covaxin', being developed by Bharat Biotech, working with ICMR and the National Institute of Virology in Pune. It had shown promising results in animal trials and now had permission for phase 1 and 2 human trials. But so far, even the pre-clinical trial data for Covaxin has not been shared by Bharat Biotech or ICMR.
So, is it possible for this vaccine, or for any vaccine, to go from phase 1 of human trials to hitting the market in 45 days?
Here are some expert reactions:
But ICMR worryingly rejects this scepticism of the medical and scientific community. In a fresh 4 July press release, ICMR says, while feedback is welcome, do not second guess our professionalism or adherence to the highest scientific rigour.
Wow, pretty aggressive. And in that context, let’s look at the letter that ICMR has written to the 12 hospitals that are to carry out the Covaxin clinical trials. While laying down 15 August as the vaccine launch date, the letter also gives a clear warning:
Now, in an interview to The New Indian Express on 2 July, Dr Krishna Ella, chairperson of Bharat Biotech, said the vaccine won’t be available before 2021. So, clearly Bharat Biotech and ICMR are not on the same page.
So, why is ICMR in this big rush, throwing all scientific caution to the wind. A clue may lie in this other line from the ICMR letter – that describes Covaxin as a “top priority project being monitored at the topmost level of the government.”
Now, one is not saying that Covaxin won’t work. In fact, Dr Jacob John says Covaxin’s pre-clinical trials, done successfully on animals, show that Covaxin has potential. He believes that given the urgency, phase 1 and 2 of the clinical trials could be run together. But he says that itself would take up till August.
After that, phase 3 is a crucial phase involving hundreds, even thousands of volunteers to confirm the efficacy and safety of the vaccine in large populations. This alone will take a few months. You cannot push medical science any faster. A vaccine has been known to have a reaction worse than disease itself. Dr John points out that Dengvaxia, a Dengue fever vaccine had to be withdrawn for this very reason.
Yeh Jo India Hai Na… if it is the first to produce a vaccine to fight COVID-19, that would truly be awesome. But if we do it by ignoring medical science, well then, our vaccine will be as effective as Mr Athavale’s ‘Go Corona Go’ vaccine!
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)