Where’s the Data to Back ABP-CVoter Survey Forecast on 2019 Polls?

ABP-CVoter survey claims people vote differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls, data shows they don’t.

No data to back ABP-Cvoter survey forecast

(Photo: The Quint)

Video Editor: Sandeep Suman

ABP News- CVoter recently released the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey and I missed the live telecast of the recent CVoter survey on ABP. After going through the highlights posted on the ABP website, I am still clueless as to how the magic figure of 276 for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was arrived at.

Is it a sum total of the best-case scenarios in all states for the ruling coalition? Why are the findings of Gujarat, West Bengal and Jharkhand missing from the website?

Unanswered Questions

What are the constituents of the United Progressive Alliance other than the Congress? Have JD (S), TDP, NCP, RJD, Left parties, TMC or DMK been considered as the allies of the Congress and hence, part of the UPA?

All that we are made to believe is that the NDA is expected to get 276 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general elections. The survey also indicates marginal erosion in the NDA’s vote share and a perceptible dip in the prime minister’s popularity, from 69 percent in 2017 to 60 percent now. The survey findings, however, have left many questions unanswered.

From the data posted on ABP, I could count 253 seats for the NDA. I counted 70 in Uttar Pradesh, 31 in Bihar and 36 in Maharashtra for the NDA. There was NO information on 82 Lok Sabha seats of Gujarat, West Bengal and Jharkhand.

What’s the Trend Reversal in 2019 Based On?

The current ABP-CVoter survey suggests that irrespective of what happens in the Assembly elections, the BJP is going to do exceedingly well in Lok Sabha elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Past data suggests that this has not been the case in the three states.

Why should we assume that we will have a trend reversal in 2019? Did the survey find something dramatic to suggest trend reversal? We have no clue from the published data.

How will the BJP perform in southern states? According to the survey, the NDA is expected to win 21 out of the 129 seats in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The BJP had an identical tally in 2014.

But, now that the alliance with the TDP is broken, will the party repeat its last performance there? Will the party repeat its performance in Karnataka against the combined Opposition of the Congress and JD (S)? What about Kerala and Tamil Nadu? The survey is silent on these issues.

From what we know, it seems 2019 is going to be an action replay of 2014, despite erosion in the popularity of the incumbent. Someone needs to tell us how that’s possible.