2019 Elections: Is The Third Front Aware of its Shortcomings?

The Lok Sabha elections are approaching and yet again, there have been talks to reinstate a Third Front.

(Photo: The Quint)

The wave of a Third Front hits every election. The general elections of 2019 are approaching, and, yet again, leaders like Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, KCR and Mamata Banerjee have been associated with the possibility of a Third Front.

1996 - Golden Era of Third Front

In 1996, when the Third Front was in its golden period, it was still trailing behind other political forces. Since those who talk of the Third Front don't have solid ground even now, how will they face the arena of the 2019 polls?

Before talking about today's Third Front, let's look back at 1996 when the United Front had an upper hand in national politics, with parties such as Janata Dal, TDP and DMK.

In 1996, the Third Front had hit a jackpot. The BJP, which had secured the maximum seats in the Lok Sabha, was in office for only 13 days.

The Congress that became the second-biggest party with 140 seats, didn't try to form a government either. It was a miracle that the United Front of thirteen parties made its government, and Haradanahalli Doddegowda Deve Gowda became the prime minister. That's right. HD Deve Gowda!

This Third Front had the Congress backing it initially but that support was withdrawn which is why he couldn't last as the prime minister for long.

An Unlikely Prime Minister

In 1997, The United Front made Indra Kumar Gujral the prime minister, that too with the help of Congress. It was a strange moment when Gujral was made the prime minister. Because, as a politician, he was never of big stature.

The Third Front, after this, became a political strategy for most leaders. Before every big election, politicians would hope that they too would hit the jackpot and become the prime minister.

Third Front in 2019?

The Lok Sabha elections are approaching and yet again, there have been talks to reinstate a Third Front. Its leading contenders are Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, with support from West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Joining the race are the two former chief ministers of Uttar Pradesh Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav. 

All the like-minded parties are being contacted. But among the so-called like-minded parties, it’s doubtful that even a single party would win 10 percent of total seats on its own.

Now the question is: are the advocates of the Third Front even aware of their shortcomings?

What Makes The Third Front Weak?

Weakness 1

The biggest weakness of the Third Front is that it doesn't have its hold in more than one state. Mamata Banerjee is restricted to West Bengal. Akhilesh and Mayawati have always competed with each other in Uttar Pradesh. And KCR has no reach beyond Telangana.

Until recently, the Left had its influence in more than one state. But the dominating powers of the Left have abandoned it.

Non-Congress and non-BJP parties have been getting 50 per cent votes since the Lok Sabha elections of 1996. But in this ratio, they were able to secure lesser seats.

Weakness 2

The BJP's strike rate in 2014 at 9.1 is their highest yet. It's higher than that of the Congress in 2009 which was more than 7.

Because the strike rate of the other parties has been really low, their chances of forming the government on their own are close to none.

Weakness 3

The third biggest weakness of the Third Front parties is that the popularity of the BJP and the Congress shows no sign of diminishing.

The BJP made many records in the elections of 2014. Although the Congress managed to secure 44 seats, it came second with its 224 seats.

The total vote share of the Congress was greater than the total vote that parties like the BSP, SP, CPM, TMC, and AIADMK had secured.

The Congress had performed poorly but even that hasn't made the possibility of its comeback any less.

Advice for Third Front

Now, here's some free advice for the advocates of the Third Front. An idea that leans heavily on mere luck cannot be followed year after year.

And even you know that there is an equal chance to win a lottery as there is to lose it.

(This article was originally published in Hindi.)