Will Jagan Reddy Gain Minority Votes in Andhra By Forgiving Cong?

Jagan Reddy can’t be perceived as being close to the BJP if he is to secure the minority vote in Andhra Pradesh.

Image used for representational purposes.

(Photo: Kamran Akhter / The Quint)

Politics can be unforgiving, but forgiveness has fit into YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s electoral calculus. The leader of the YSR Congress party and chief ministerial aspirant in Andhra Pradesh, has suddenly decided to “forgive” the Congress party and has said so in public.

Interestingly, he has chosen the last few days of campaigning in Andhra Pradesh, which goes to polls on 11 April, to invoke forgiveness. Why?

It is no secret that the Congress party’s fall in Andhra Pradesh began with the rise of Jaganmohan Reddy. After the death of Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy in a helicopter crash in 2009, even as the body was kept on display and final respects were being payed, supporters of his son Jaganmohan Reddy demanded that he be appointed chief minister of Andhra Pradesh.

How Congress Lost the Plot in Andhra Pradesh

The Congress high command, which was still grappling with the political fallout of YSR’s death, was taken aback by the ferocity with which the demand for Jagan was made. YSR Reddy was arguably the Congress’s most powerful regional satrap in recent times, and had held the party with an iron grip, delivering victories in 2004 and 2009. In fact, he got the Congress 29 of the 42 seats in a united Andhra Pradesh in 2004, and made it the single largest party at the Centre.

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Since that victory, in both the Lok Sabha and assembly elections in a united Andhra Pradesh, the YSR writ ran the Congress. His son Jaganmohan Reddy was elected as a Member of Parliament in 2009, and with his ownership of a television channel, Jagan grew to be a formidable force within the party.

However, the Congress refused to entertain Jagan’s ambitions, and the party old guard took charge of the state, slowly sidelining Jagan after YSR’s demise. He was offered a Minister of State position in New Delhi, and was advised by party seniors to work patiently and stay with the party. But he would have none of it, and it was either chief ministership or an open war.

The fall out was instability in the state Congress and subsequently, Jagan split to launch the YSR Congress party. Meanwhile, a weakened Congress lost the plot and the state itself came to be bifurcated.

Jagan Reddy’s Rise & Prospects in 2019

The Congress slowly and steadily destroyed itself in a state which led its tally in 2004 and 2009, and its fall was directly linked to Jagan’s rise. It is virtually extinct in Andhra Pradesh because it is perceived as having done injustice to the people who opposed bifurcation, and the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) took pole position in Telangana as the champion of the newly-formed state.

Jagan opposed the bifurcation and took over the Reddy caste vote base – originally with the Congress in Andhra – replacing the party as the principal force in a bipolar battle with N Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party.

Interestingly, while “forgiving” the Congress in the last three days, Jagan even invoked Christianity – his family converted to Christianity many generations ago – but has retained their Reddy caste title – and said that his religion teaches him forgiveness, and not vengeance.

The calculus is simple. Jagan Reddy cannot afford to lose even a bit of the minority vote in this 2019 battle. In 2014, he lost to the Telugu Desam Party by a vote share of less than 2 percent, and if the minorities decide to go with the TDP in 2019, it would again spell disaster.

Why Jagan Chose to ‘Forgive’ Congress

Given that incumbent Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu broke away from the BJP and is seen as closer to a Congress-led secular front now, Jagan seems to be worried that being seen as close to the BJP could alienate the minorities.

This is why the message of forgiveness comes in handy at this stage. By sending out an impression that he is open to the Congress, he is fighting the image that he is most likely to go with the BJP in a post-poll scenario. His worry mainly stems from the fact that the 2019 elections is being seen – at least by the minorities – as a secular versus communal fight, and anyone remotely close to the BJP may be seen with suspicion by the minorities.

Jagan Joining Hands With Congress Is Highly Improbable

Jagan’s electoral arithmetic is a combination of the Reddy caste, minorities and SC/ST vote. Hence, given the close fight against the TDP, even a small loss of vote share could prove disastrous, and Jagan simply needs to reiterate that he is not on the BJP side of the fence.

The feeling that the Congress created Telangana, and hence did injustice to those in Andhra Pradesh, still runs deep in the state, and that makes the party virtually irrelevant. However, on the secularism issue, the TDP has taken the lead, and Jagan Reddy has been fighting an image of proximity to the BJP.

Jagan has claimed that he will support anyone who gives “in writing” special status for Andhra Pradesh, and has repeatedly attacked the BJP for not giving the state special status. But this is not enough to ward off the perception that he is a potential BJP ally and hence, ostensibly “forgiving” the Congress is one way to secure the minority vote.

In the end, in the short term, it is highly unlikely that Jagan and the Congress will join hands.

The only remote chance that could happen is if both desperately need each other in a post-poll scenario, and there is a personal outreach from the Gandhis to Reddy. But till then, Jagan’s preferences may still be with the BJP.

(The writer is an independent journalist. He can be reached @TMVRaghav . This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)