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Though Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s Moscow meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe on Friday has grabbed the headlines, his visit to Russia is important from many other angles as well.
First, the Wei meeting. Reports in the Chinese media state that Gen Wei told Singh that India was “entirely responsible” for the border standoff and that China will not lose “an inch of its territory”, which is as clear a signal you can get that Beijing is determined on its hardline posture in eastern Ladakh.
Even so, a face-to-face meeting with the Chinese minister who is one of the most senior Generals in the PLA and a member of the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission (CMC), has considerable significance.
This has been the case all through but manifested most clearly when the PLA Deputy Chief of Staff Admiral Sun Jianguo signed the last major border agreement with India – the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement of 2013. This was an outcome of the PLA’s frantic efforts to somehow persuade India to freeze its border construction activities.
Even if India is hoping – as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has repeatedly said that the problem in eastern Ladakh can be resolved through diplomatic dialogue – the route to Beijing’s decision lies via the CMC which is chaired by Xi, but contains senior military officers. And, of course, if messages have to be given to the PLA itself, there is no opportunity better than a face-to-face meeting with one of its Generals.
Singh’s visit took place on the occasion of the ministerial meet of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). In his address to the SCO meeting on Friday, Singh said peace and security in the region demanded a climate of trust, non-aggression, peaceful resolution of differences and respect of international rules. This was a message clearly aimed at China over the issue of Eastern Ladakh.
The meetings of Indian ministers with their Russian counterparts at the sidelines of the SCO meeting, though low key are equally significant. They underscore the importance India gives to its Russian relationship and, in turn, provides Moscow the opportunity to reassure India on account of its relationships with China and Pakistan.
Russia has been a largely uncomplaining supporter of India on the issue of Kashmir. For its part, New Delhi is seeking to draw in Russia into its notion of the Indo-Pacific paradigm. The recent ‘Exercise Indra’ between Russian and Indian naval ships in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands underscores this.
As it is, these visits come at an important juncture in Moscow’s relationships around the world. The Navalny poisoning incident is having a major fallout in Germany where the Russian Opposition leader is being treated. There is a great deal of pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel to cancel the Nordstream 2 gas deal with Russia.
The two 1,230 km pipelines that will carry Russian gas to Germany are almost ready and its cancellation will be a severe blow to Moscow and lead to a further rupture in the European Union’s relations with Russia. The country is already under a number of EU and American sanctions but after initial setbacks, its economy has held up reasonably well. But the pressure on oil prices on account of COVID-19 could lead to turbulence ahead.
As for India, the continuing importance of Russia is underlined by the fact that this is Singh’s second visit to Moscow in recent months. He made a 3-day visit to Moscow on 22 June, shortly after the sharp deterioration in India-China ties following the Galwan incident. During the visit, Singh reviewed all the India-Russia arms transactions in the pipeline and also asked the Russians for emergency delivery for some of the items.
Russian arms exports to India have been falling in recent years, but India still accounted for 25 percent of total Russian arms exports. Russia remains the largest supplier to India, even though its share of Indian purchases fell from 72 percent to 56 percent between 2015-2019.
In the coming years, the Russians are likely to help India push the Brahmos project to its next level by making a hypersonic version of it.
Further, they are also likely to be major partners for the ambitious project to make nuclear-powered attack submarines in India. Then, of course, there is the S-400 air defence system which is simply not available anywhere else in the world.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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Published: 05 Sep 2020,03:58 PM IST