Poonch Attack Caps Violence in Jammu & Kashmir; Hampers India-Pakistan Detente

The Poonch attack, ahead of the Indo-Pak SCO meet, reinforces the notion of a 'terrorist ecosystem' in the valley.

The Poonch attack, ahead of the Indo-Pakistan SCO meet, reinforces the notion of a 'terrorist ecosystem' in the valley..

Image: Chetan Bhakuni/The Quint

The gruesome attack on the Indian Army in Poonch district in Jammu and Kashmir on 20 April that led to the death of five Rashtriya Rifles (RR) troopers has cast a spotlight on the build-up of militant activity in Jammu ahead of the G20 meeting scheduled for next month.

Many analysts believe it signals that the region which was relatively freer of insurgency has come into the crosshairs of militant groups after the revocation of Article 370 and that militant outfits are seeking to regain a foothold in Kashmir by trying to lure forces’ attention towards the Jammu region.

Escalating Violence in the Once Terror-Free Jammu Region

The back-to-back attacks in Jammu over the past year, of which the ambush near Bhata Durian village is the latest addition, have rekindled apprehensions including whether the assailants comprise the same group responsible for the massacre of six Hindu civilians in Dangri village in Rajouri earlier this year. Questions have also surfaced as to how the militants have managed to survive in the dense forests of the Rajouri-Poonch belt for so long without civilian support.

“It’s a fact that Dangri attackers were not neutralised, it is also a fact that in 2021, the same area witnessed an attack in which nine troops were killed. Again those terrorists also remain untraced,” Shesh Paul Vaid, Former Director General of J&K Police told The Quint. “Normally, their survival training is such that they can survive for as long as 10 to 15 days. But if indeed they are the same people who perpetrated Dangri attacks, then they have been at large for too long.”

On 20 April, a three-vehicle motorcade of RR, a specialised counter-insurgency wing of the Army, was driving through a road along a forested ridge near Tota Gali between Bhimber and Bhata Durian when the militants ambushed the convoy from three sides. One of the vehicles ended up catching fire because its diesel tank came under gunfire. Investigators also believe that militants simultaneously attacked the convoy with grenades.

Based on the particulars of the attacks that the investigators have been able to piece together so far, it is clear that unlike most recent militant actions in J&K, the Poonch attack was premeditated and appears to have involved far more calculated planning than was expected from the militant groups at this moment, given the sustained clampdown on what J&K has frequently referred to as a “terrorist ecosystem”.

On Monday, the National Investigative Agency (NIA) sealed the properties of two sons of Syed Yusuf Shah, known as Syed Salahuddin who heads the Pakistan-based militant outfit Hizbul Mujahideen. Both his sons, Shahid Yusuf and Syed Shakeel, are already in Tihar jail in Delhi for allegedly receiving funds from his father’s associates in Pakistan.

Last week, the opposition leaders used the attack to take a dig at the Modi government saying that violence in Kashmir under his watch was increasing. Digvijay Singh of the Congress party alleged that there was an expansion in the geographical spread of the terror attacks in J&K. “Poonch used to be free of terrorism,” Singh said. “Terror attacks used to take place in Kashmir valley; places such as Anantnag and Pulwama. People were told that terrorism will be eliminated due to the impact of the note ban. But terror incidents have gone up.”

The attack has been claimed by People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) that security agencies say is a front of the militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad. “Gali attack is unconventional in the sense that in past attacks stress was on blasting a target vehicle and killing soldiers or cops with gunshots, shrapnel, and splinters. In this one, the aim was apparently to kill the targets by fire flames of some highly incendiary substance,” Journalist and Analyst Ahmed Ali Fayyaz tweeted on Tuesday, adding that the attack should lead to an immediate review of the security network around G20 venues in Srinagar.

"There's also a possibility of it being revenge for the Jammu encounter of 28 December 2022 in which four Jaish-e-Mohammad guerrillas were charred to death inside a truck. Only a coordinated multi-agency probe could make things clear,” he added.

Timeline of Jammu Violence

This is not the first time the militants have been able to unsettle peace in the Jammu region. Before the Dangri carnage on the eve of New Year, the Rajouri region was gripped by protests after two civilians had died outside an Army camp at Falyana. While people blamed the security forces for the killings, the Army apportioned the blame upon “unidentified terrorists”.

Early last year, security forces found 250 detonators in the Sidhra area of Poonch district in Jammu. In March 2022, an IED blast in Salathia Chowk in Udhampur caused the killing of one person and injured 14 others. The following month, the police and paramilitary forces foiled a suicide attack ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the region.

Two suspected militants affiliated with the JeM group were killed and a CISF officer also died during the operation. The same month, a sticky bomb planted by militants caused a bus ferrying pilgrims to the Katra region of Jammu to go up in flames, resulting in the death of four pilgrims en route to Mata Vaishno Devi shrine base camp.

In August, a big attack took place in the Pargal area in Rajouri when militants attacked an army facility, killing five servicemen. In 2021 October, nine soldiers died in a two-week-long gun battle that raged at Dera Ki Gali area of Surankote tehsil in the Poonch district.

As per the police memo, the attack on 20 April took place at around 3 pm in the afternoon and militants are likely to have taken advantage of the inclement weather and low visibility. The deceased personnel have been identified as Hav Mandeep Singh, L/Nk Kulwant Singh, Sep Harkrishan Singh and Sep Sewak Singh from Punjab, and L/Nk Debashish Baswal from Odisha.

On Tuesday, the officials said that around 50 people including over a dozen militant associates called ‘Over Ground Workers’ (OGW)s were detained for questioning by the police. Already a massive manhunt is underway across the dense forests of the Poonch region, with the search parties consisting of sniffer dogs, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, and around twelve companies of RR.

Official sources said that there have been around 50 bullet marks that perforated the army vehicle that came under the attack. They also believe that around seven to eight militants must have planned the assault. The assailants are said to have crouched inside a culvert and waited for the opportune moment to strike. 

The police also confirmed that militants have used a sticky bomb to carry out the attack which has been described as one of the worst since the Pulwama attack of February 2019. The Army has also ordered an internal inquiry to check for any “probable lapses” that led to the attack.

The area where the attack took place has been described by analysts as a go-between for militants in the past, connecting the Balakot area with the Mughal Road on the Indian side. The area has a dense tree cover and jagged terrain in whose ravines militants have been able to find shelter and avoid detection. This route further connects to Shopian via Mughal Road and ultimately descends into Kashmir Valley.

Cloud of Uncertainty Over SCO Meet

The episode comes on the heels of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Goa next month which the Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto is expected to attend. The meeting is likely to be of great significance for India because New Delhi appears to be clement to the idea of a political modus vivendi with Pakistan in the face of escalating security threats from China. 

The Poonch incident also comes against the backdrop of the proposed withdrawal of RR. In February, reports attributed to the unnamed officials circulated in the press saying that the Union government was in the “advanced stage” of working out a plan to sanction the removal of the army from the hinterland in Kashmir and relocating them close to the Line of Control while allowing paramilitary forces and the police to take the mantle of securing law and order and fighting off militancy in cities, towns, suburbs as well as the countryside.

But the string of attacks that have rocked the Jammu region over the last year is likely to throw a wrench in such plans.

 “When I was the Inspector General of Police in Jammu between 2004 and 2008, Jammu was almost free of terrorism,” Vaid said. “But now the region is witnessing rising terror activity.”

Vaid added that the terror incidents illustrated a concerted effort by the Pakistani state to pull the forces’ attention away from Kashmir and towards the Jammu region so that they can regain entry inside the Valley. “These are the dynamics of the insurgency and they keep changing situation-wise. Terrorists want to give an impression that holding the G20 meeting in Srinagar is not safe.”

(Shakir Mir is an independent journalist. He has also written for The Wire.in, Article 14, Caravan, Firstpost, The Times of India, and more. He tweets at @shakirmir. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)