MCD Polls: With AAP’s ‘Have-Nots’ Politics, Can Kejriwal Cement Permanent Spot?

Post BJP's better performance & Congress preventing AAP from sweeping MCD, it's to see if Kejriwal nails Mayor polls

With BJP performing better and Congress preventing AAP from sweeping polls, can Kejriwal nail it in the Mayor polls?

Image: Kamran Akhtar/ The Quint

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has trounced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once again in Delhi, winning the fiercely contested Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls by ending the latter's 15-year rule. The AAP won 134 seats while the BJP had 104 and the Congress only nine seats.

Whilst the exit polls predicted a comfortable victory for the AAP with 151 seats, the results were a cliffhanger with fortunes shifting like a see-saw from AAP to BJP in the initial hours.

It has just managed to win by a whisker with just 11 seats more than the majority. The BJP has done way better than what the exit polls had predicted and so has the Congress.

With a stronger BJP than expected and the angle of nomination of 12 members to the MCD by the Lieutenant-Governor (LG), the complex Mayor elections will not be easy for the AAP. It should have gotten close to 200 seats going by Vidhan Sabha 2020 results trends.

• AAP trounced BJP once again in Delhi, winning the fiercely contested Municipal polls by ending the latter's 15-year rule.

• With a stronger BJP than expected, and the nomination of 12 members to the MCD by the Lieutenant-Governor, the complex Mayor elections will not be easy for the AAP.

• With a Presidential style election now even employed in the local body polls, the independent and smaller parties are getting increasingly marginalised.

• Results establish Brand Kejriwal as the most favoured politician, exposing weakness of BJP's Delhi unit for its inability to outsmart him.

• AAP has emerged as champion of the poor in national capital— the status enjoyed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in most parts of the country, with its social welfare policies for the poor, also known as 'freebies'.

AAP’s Landslide Victory vs BJP’s Better Performance

In a way, Delhi has voted for a 'double engine ki sarkar' with the same government in the corporation and in the state. The Municipal polls were hurriedly announced after AAP started gaining some traction in Gujarat, as alleged by the party supporters.

With a Presidential style election now even employed in the local body polls, the independent and smaller parties are getting increasingly marginalised in what used to be a hyper-local election.

This is what may have also resulted in a lower-than-expected tally for AAP as the focus moves from issues to faces in such a campaign—Modi vs Kejriwal.

Also, the fact that the AAP is now eight years in power in the state may have also given rise to a natural anti-incumbency. The halo which the AAP built around Kejriwal has been dented somewhat due to the corruption allegations against the ministers and allegations of selling tickets. 

Year-wise vote tally of the parties

Image: Kamran Akhtar/ The Quint

How AAP Gained Votes & Confidence of Delhi’s Populace

However, the results do establish Brand Kejriwal as the most favoured politician in Delhi. It also exposes the weakness of BJP's Delhi unit for its inability to outsmart Kejriwal. The state unit of BJP lacks the aptitude to take on the young AAP as the newbie seems to be learning the tricks of the trade from the saffron party’s playbook.

Delhites hope that now, with an AAP Mayor and CM, the constant bickering between the state government and municipal corporation would come to an end and civic issues will be taken care of in a proper manner. 

The AAP with its free electricity, water, schools, and mohalla clinics has made a strong base amongst the poorer sections of society, people at the bottom of the pyramid like labourers, and auto/taxi drivers. The propensity to vote for AAP is higher amongst this section vis-a-vis middle and upper-class voters.

The lead the AAP enjoys over the BJP amongst slum-dwellers is 21% while amongst colonies is just 6% as per Axis My India exit poll. The BJP on the other hand leads AAP amongst voters living in bungalows by 5%.

Amongst communities, the AAP is leading among the Purvanchalis (despite Manoj Tiwari in BJP), Punjabis (consolidating its position after winning in the state) and Dilliwalas, while BJP is leading amongst the Pahadis. Though region-wise BJP is ahead in the east of Delhi.

With its high-pitch campaign on social media and higher digital outreach compared to its peers, the AAP has been able to attract the youth to the electoral process. It is leading the BJP amongst the 18-25 year-olds category by 13% while the BJP is ahead of AAP only amongst senior citizens by 12%

Fanfare Among Marginalised & ‘Freebies’ Behind AAP’s Success

The AAP has emerged as the champion of the poor in the national capital— the status enjoyed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in most parts of the country. Its social welfare policies for the poor, otherwise known as 'freebies', have resulted in a complex interplay of caste and class politics in the national capital, forcing parties to redraw traditional polling strategies. 

High inflation, economic devastation after COVID, and unemployment have led AAP to hold onto its vote share among the poor and lower sections of society as they have been the most affected. AAP has also subtly played through its freebies 'the Rich vs Poor politics', and 'Haves vs Have-nots', creating sharp divisions or polarisation which is required for parties to cement any vote bank.

With free water and electricity, good schools and hospitals, AAP has managed to directly benefit the poor class which is witnessing tangible savings per month. 

Does Kejriwal-Led AAP Cap National Opposition to BJP?

The tally lower than expected is due to the better-than-expected performance of Congress. The party seems to have clawed back some of its support mostly among the minorities, as the results indicate. 

Undoubtedly, the MCD results will embolden the party to take on Congress for failing to be an effective opposition to BJP at the national level. Along with the much-anticipated results of Gujarat where AAP is expected to make an entry, it provides wings to the aspirations of Kejriwal to emerge as the national alternative to BJP.

The party may need to take it more seriously. At 12%-13% vote share versus 5% in state polls, the Congress has stopped Kejriwal from sweeping the MCD polls. 

With the two state governments and now a municipal corporation, AAP has now access to ample resources which could help it spread its wings over the rest of the country. Kejriwal may take a back seat in Delhi and leave it in the hands of Sisodia while he traverses the country to build an organisation. 

However, with victory comes greater responsibilities as it may no longer have the luxury of blaming the BJP for the issues reeling Delhi. Over to the Mayoral elections now!

(The author is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba. This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)