Mayawati or Mamata: Who Will Conquer “India’s Next PM” Challenge?

The difference is in Mayawati and Mamata’s attitude to the Congress; and that may cost or earn them the prize.

Mamata Banerjee’s piece-setting efforts have not gone unnoticed. Mayawati’s have been reported but remain under-analyzed.

(Photo: Shruti Mathur/The Quint)

Though neither has openly acknowledged this, there are two women making a pitch for the Indian prime minister’s job as the 2019 general elections draw near: Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president and former Uttar Pradesh (UP) CM Mayawati.

Mamata’s piece-setting efforts have not gone unnoticed. Mayawati’s have been reported but remain under-analyzed. The pitches are prompted by a common reading of what they believe lies ahead.

One, that the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will fall short of the necessary numbers and find weighty allies hard to come by. Two, that installing a non-BJP government is presently a greater priority for the Congress than installing Rahul Gandhi on the prime ministerial chair. And therefore three, that the next Indian PM will be decided in post-poll parleys.

This commonality in outlook is giving shape to gameplans that are broadly similar — but with one important difference.

First, the similarities. Both Mamta and Mayawati have positioned themselves in the anti-BJP corner (this also owes to the potent BJP threat on their home turfs) and are displaying a keenness to win friends among other opposition parties while targeting maximum possible returns from their respective base states.

The difference is in their attitude to the Congress – and it is this that may well cost or earn them the prize they seek.

Didi’s Federal Front – a Dark Horse?

Mamata appears to be proceeding under the assumption that a federal front of non-BJP, non-Congress parties like her own will pick enough seats to corner the Congress into supporting it.

Given both the emotive and substantive aspects of regional issues especially at a time when the BJP’s centralizing impulses have raised several red flags and the demonstrated capacity of the proposed federal front constituents to capitalize on such issues, at least part of Mamata’s plan makes sense.

The slip for Mamata could occur if federal front constituents refuse her leadership (the grouping has skirted the issue so far) with either another ambitious regional satrap deciding to play spoilsport or the Congress garnering a tally too impressive to ignore.

These are possibilities a politician as seasoned as Mamata has undoubtedly considered and, in pursuing her chosen course, she displays confidence in two things:

• That the TMC will emerge as the largest federal front constituent and be indispensable to its government formation efforts.
• That the Congress, while improving on its current tally, will not have the seats necessary to wean away federal front constituents and rally them around Rahul Gandhi.

Mayawati and BSP’s Shot at Resurgence

Meanwhile, aware that a strong show in UP alone may not be enough to propel her the full distance (the state’s 80 seats will be allotted between the BSP, the Samajwadi Party, the Congress, and the Rashtriya Lok Dal), Mayawati has opted to leverage her party’s base beyond UP . She is doing this by entering into alliance conversations with the Congress in Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh (MP), and Rajasthan, and with other parties in Haryana and Maharashtra.

In bringing her small but loyal base to the table in these states and in pointedly insisting on respectable seat-sharing arrangements, Mayawati aims to emerge a crucial, ‘tipping-point partner’ in anti-BJP coalitions across a large swathe of the land, not only for 2019 but beyond too.

Should a Congress-BSP alliance materialize and manage to form state governments in even two of the three states where elections are due later this year (a distinct possibility), Mayawati may just have earned herself the Congress’ backing for prime ministership in the event of a less-than-resounding endorsement for the Grand Old Party.

Not to be missed in this context is Mayawati’s recent bonhomie with the Congress; from a public hug with Sonia Gandhi at the time of Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in to her subsequent dismissal of a senior party leader for his crude comments against Rahul.

The Difference in Maya and Mamata’s Gameplans

At one level, Mayawati’s estimation of the Congress is similar to Mamata’s. Both see the Congress putting up an improved show but not improved enough to make Rahul Gandhi an undeniable candidate for the top job.

The difference, however, is that Mamata is targeting a scenario where her own numbers and the federal front’s support leave the Congress little choice but to support her candidature for prime ministership. In Mayawati’s preferred scenario, it is Congress support that gives momentum to her case.

It is then the ‘distance’ being maintained from the Congress and the political and moral muscle the Congress is expected to exercise, in post-election government formation efforts that distinguish the two game plans. 

Mayawati’s, it would appear, is the more pragmatic game plan. Mamata’s stance vis-à-vis the Congress means she would have the Congress’s support only in the most desperate of circumstances. Mayawati, on the other hand, has positioned herself in a manner that she can find ready support from both the Congress and federal front constituents. The latter have little reason to deny Mayawati once momentum builds around her name.

Furthermore, while Mamata’s promise to the federal front, presumably of more balanced center-state relations, has undeniable value, it is less ‘concrete’ and partner-binding than Mayawati’s assurance of votes as an alliance partner, particularly since her slate on central-state relations isn’t unclean.

Whichever way the consensus goes in the Mamata-Mayawati schemas, the Congress, it is clear, will have more than a say in choosing India’s next PM.

(Manish Dubey is a policy analyst and crime fiction writer and can be contacted @ManishDubey1972. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)