India-Nepal Ties: As Comrades Prachanda-Oli Unite, Is China Having Last Laugh?

Union of two communist parties is a win for China's diplomacy as it was keen to unite all communist blocks in Nepal.

Image: Chetan Bhakuni/The Quint

The high political drama in Kathmandu witnessed in the past week has ended with the Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda being elected the new prime minister of Nepal. This will be his third tenure after renouncing violence and entering mainstream politics in 2006.

As witnessed in the past, Nepali politics has once again thrown a big surprise at the last minute with Prachanda walking out of the alliance with the Nepali Congress (NC) and joining hands with the rival KP Sharma Oli-led CPN-UML.

Prachanda has claimed the support of 170 MPs from six parties and four independent parliamentarians in the 275 member Lower House. The general elections held last month for the federal government and the state legislatures had failed to produce a clear majority for any political party. While NC became the single largest party with 89 seats, CPN-UML got 78 and the CPN-Maoist Center 32.

• Nepal's Elected PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda will have his third term after renouncing violence and entering mainstream politics in 2006.

• Prachanda has claimed the support of 170 MPs from six parties and four independent parliamentarians in the 275 member Lower House.

• Oli and Prachanda, signed a power-sharing agreement, according to which Prachanda will be PM for the next two and half years after which he will pass the mantle to UML chief.

• Both the UML and Maoist leaders are now calling the new understanding “a necessity of time.”

• India did not enjoy the best of relation with the former government of Oli as he was seen usin China card against India and beat up anti-India sentiments.

Fault Lines Between NC-Maoist Alliance and Its Breakdown

The NC and the Maoists had formed a pre-poll alliance as they were also together in the outgoing government led by NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba, who is said to have had a power-sharing agreement with Prachanda. As Deuba did not relent to give the prime ministership to Prachanda, the latter broke the alliance.

This author has learnt that the NC leaders close to Deuba faction were not in favor of him making way for Prachanda. With the breakdown of this alliance, the NC has not only lost out its opportunity at the center but will also not be able to form government in all seven provinces. PM Deuba’s stubbornness has cost him dearly.

His party colleagues have complained about the lack of discussion after the poll victory and crticised him for his self-centered decision-making style relying only on inner coteries for advise.

Internal wrangling in NC is a factor too. The likes of Shekhar Koirala, Prakash Man Singh, and Bimalendra Nidhi, among others are aspirants for top positions. The young faces of the party have,of late, pose challenge to Deuba’s leadership. Gagan Thapa, the firebrand youth leader who won from the Kathmandu constituency number 4, fought for the parliamentary party leader position alongside Deuba just a few days back. The alliance with Prachanda was strategic for Deuba who relied on Dahal for support to continue as the PM.

From Comrades To Rivals To Coalition Partners 

KP Sharma Oli has clearly emerged victorious. Even after his party split when veteran communist leaders quit the party, including former Prime Ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal, CPN-UML emerged as the second-largest party in the last month’s general elections.

Oli remains a popular leader in Nepal with many, particularly the youth, looking up to him as a nationalist leader for his tough decision-making capability. He gained heights at the time of map row with India regarding Kalapani area and earlier in 2015, during the blockade.

Oli and Prachanda on Sunday, signed a power-sharing agreement, according to which Prachanda will be PM for the next two and half years after which he will pass the mantle to the UML chief. As per the Constitution, vote of no-confidence cannot be introduced in the parliament for two consecutive years.

The two had parted ways after Oli during his regime, repeatedly recommended the dissolution of the House to retain chief executive post. In 2017 polls, the two communist parties were in an alliance, which later culminated in the formation of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). The NCP was disbanded after a Supreme Court verdict that threw both the parties back to the pre-2017 position declaring them as separate parties.

On Sunday, Oli emerged the kingmaker by accepting Prachanda as the new PM thereby, burying all former distrusts and dislikes. Not long ago, the two leaders were seen publically slandering and hurdling accusations at each other over political commitments and policy decisions.

In his last visit to New Delhi in July 2022, Dahal had specifically denied any possibility of a communist alliance emerging anytime soon in Nepal. Both the UML and Maoist leaders are now calling the new understanding “a necessity of time.”

Oli’s Masterstroke As New Kingmaker & Rise of New Parties

The election system adopted in the new Constitution of Nepal whereby, elections are held under the First Past the Post and Proportional Representation systems practically make it difficult for any political party to achieve a clear majority. Hence, coalition politics have always attained significance in Nepal.

NC, UML, Maoists and Madhesh-based parties have been main coalition partners since a long time. But this time around, the rise of first-timer Rastriya Swatantra Party led by a popular TV anchor Rabi Lammichhane has been significant. He has secured the post of deputy PM with Home ministry portfolio.

His party has seven seats in the federal legislature. Figures like CK Raut of Janamat Party, independent winners (4 out of 5 have joined Prachanda), and Nagarik Unmukti Party’s (which won 3 seats) Resham Chaudahary, who is serving a jail term, will have a visible presence.

In the general elections, there was a lot of noise especially in social media for the need to have more young faces in the Nepali parliament. A significant number of votes in the proportional representation went to Rabi’s party. The shift of mere 3-4 per cent votes have brought smaller parties into the mainstream fore.

What the Nepal Episode Means for India and China

Ideally, India would have liked to see the continuation of the NC-Maoist alliance irrespective of who would get the top post. The personal proximity between PM Modi and Deuba that was visible during the latter’s India visit and Modi’s reciprocal visit to Lumbini this year was interpreted as India throwing its weight behind the NC-led alliance.

The NC in turn, was surely relying on India to play a role to hold the alliance together, mainly with Prachanda. There is now disgruntlement in NC which sees India not doing its bit to help Deuba although, the onus of holding the alliance clearly lay with the NC leadership. During his July visit to India, no dialogue was held between Prachanda and PM Modi.

India did not enjoy the best of relation with the former government of Oli as he was seen using the China card against India and beat up anti-India sentiments. Even then, it cannot be said that India was against an NC-UML-led coalition during this time.

But the two communist parties coming together is rather a victory for Chinese diplomacy as China has been keen to unite all communist blocks in Nepal. Earlier, China played a key role in the formation of the NCP. Nepal figures prominently in China’s strategic outlook with the himalayan nation already being a part of the BRI.

(Akanshya Shah is a Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)